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Thread: Crash - sending Gold up or down?

  1. #1

    Default Crash - sending Gold up or down?

    I have been hanging on for a dip in PM prices (Gold and Silver) to invest over on Bullion Vault (no chance to hold physical for me unfortunately).

    My thoughts were that funds, retail investors, whatever, would dump gold going into a crash to capitalise their other positions (for margin).

    Just read this very disturbing article that sets out a scenario where treasuries get dumped by US banks, the fed buys up everything to main price stability, and then cash rich banks push up commodities 100%+ in hours, then 300% in days.

    http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010...ll-happen.html

    So exactly the opposite result to what I was anticipating, and nothing I could act on quickly enough.

    Any thoughts?

  2. #2

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    Honestly, I see so many people overthinking all the potential scenarios.

    1) I can't relate to "waiting" for a dip (yesterday, you had your dip)
    2) you can't hold physical (even if you travel constantly, there ARE ways)

    If you are talking 20% of net, there is no downside because you can hold for the next cycle even if that is 10-20 years.

    One cannot afford not to own some physical gold because counterparty risk is off the charts these days. Focus on The Big Picture and cover the most probable bases?

    BTW, I lost much respect for him, the way he throws names around....

    But that particular group of run-of-the-mill students is exactly the sort of individual who winds up running the United States. The current Secretary of the Treasury is a Dartmouth alum—Geithner ‘83. So was the last Treasury Secretary—Paulson ‘68—as well as a whole boatload of his partners at Goldman Sachs. The current head of General Electric (Immelt ‘68), the most influential Surgeon General in American history (Koop ‘37), the current junior senator from New York (Gillibrand née Rutnik ‘88), the senior White House correspondent for one of the major networks (Tapper ‘91), the soldier/writer who’s experiences in Iraq formed the basis for a major television series on HBO (Fick ‘99)—


    Marine,.... whatever..... You don't know enough to know that, maybe you shouldn't be throwing their names out there in your big whine about Dartmouth types

    Point being, don't hang on every word of every *smart* blogger out there.
    Last edited by fledglingthree; 10-21-2011 at 10:23 AM.

  3. #3

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    Thanks.

    I'm buying my PMs with British pounds and not dollars. So I also have to hope the Bank of England doesn't do something stupid and plunge the pound before I buy.

  4. #4

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    open up a USD account at your bank, convert your pounds to USD, because if things go the way it's looking, the USD will rally, and the pound will get weaker (just like every other currency to the USD).

    If you're holding USD you can buy gold in USD for cheaper because its appreciating. Thats what I'm doing (except I'm in Canada).

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by RobbMatthew View Post
    open up a USD account at your bank, convert your pounds to USD, because if things go the way it's looking, the USD will rally, and the pound will get weaker (just like every other currency to the USD).

    If you're holding USD you can buy gold in USD for cheaper because its appreciating. Thats what I'm doing (except I'm in Canada).
    Agree. That is what I am doing too. We earn in USD but live in Canada. When USD rallies, I will convert bulk of my USD into CAD.

  6. #6

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    Quit trying to outsmart yourself. Whether you can or can't, you will be the loser.

    If you plan to sell your gold in a few weeks, you probably can't win against the billion-dollar speculators and the central bank fake-outs.

    If this is a long-term "sleep-at-night" investment, where do you think the price of gold will be in 5-10 years? It would be silly to miss a big move trying to catch a little one, wouldn't it? And it sounds like you may not be sleeping well yet.

    I say buy some now, buy some more later. That way no matter what happens, you will be half right. Having a stake in the game relieves a lot of stress.

    If you can't buy physical, so be it. Just understand that if things get really ugly, that may be just when your paper investment fails you.

  7. #7

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    I have some "paper" gold with CEF (Central Fund of Canada). I believe they actually have Gold. My other option is Bullion Vault, with Gold in Zurich. I think Bullionvault are safe.

    I am going to buy into Gold soon.

    BTW, my pounds are at Bullionvault. So I can't switch them to USD unless I first trade to Gold/Silver and then out again.

  8. #8

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    Some market cycle info for you from Danielle Park:

    https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=95176

  9. #9

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    Buy. Every month you have excess income.

    Price goes up? Buy a little more.

    Price goes down? Buy a little more.

    That's been my plan the last 4+ years. I don't sweat the little ups and downs day-to-day, month-to-month. They told me I was crazy for buying at $800. Who's crazy now?

    What kind of dip are you waiting for? It's already dropped $150 in the last month or so.

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