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Thread: Deflation Precedes Hyperinflation-Long Answer

  1. #4861

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    Quote Originally Posted by dukadan View Post
    There is a chart in the link Weimar Marks vs the % of change in gold price (monthly)
    the author seems have a gold finger pointing to where he thinks we were in August 2020.
    That's pretty irrelevant to what may happen to the dollar. The Mark wasn't the world currency, the US economy is not coming out of losing a world war, and nobody is forcing value from the economy at a rate that exceeds production and then forcing the US to take loans to make up the difference.

    Whether honest ignorance or bias the guy is outing himself as somebody you should not trust about this sort of thing.

  2. #4862

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    Quote Originally Posted by DBCooper View Post
    That's pretty irrelevant to what may happen to the dollar. The Mark wasn't the world currency, the US economy is not coming out of losing a world war, and nobody is forcing value from the economy at a rate that exceeds production and then forcing the US to take loans to make up the difference.

    Whether honest ignorance or bias the guy is outing himself as somebody you should not trust about this sort of thing.
    Thank you for this well stated description of the differences. It is valuable perspective.

    Unfortunately, the differences are not a guarantee that a similar devaluation will not occur. The differences just mean that the devaluation will not occur for the same reason. As an example, if the devaluation of the USD is intentional, as part of a wealth transfer plan, as some conspiracy theorists seem to suggest, then the same outcome could come to pass without the same underlying causes.

    You describe how Germany was forced into massive inflation. A person or group who wants to do something does not need to be forced. Lack of external force becomes a non-issue.
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  3. #4863

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    Quote Originally Posted by SilverPalm View Post
    Thank you for this well stated description of the differences. It is valuable perspective.

    Unfortunately, the differences are not a guarantee that a similar devaluation will not occur. The differences just mean that the devaluation will not occur for the same reason. As an example, if the devaluation of the USD is intentional, as part of a wealth transfer plan, as some conspiracy theorists seem to suggest, then the same outcome could come to pass without the same underlying causes.

    You describe how Germany was forced into massive inflation. A person or group who wants to do something does not need to be forced. Lack of external force becomes a non-issue.
    I don't disagree with your statement at all.

    The problem I'm getting at is our personal biases that draw us to notice those things we believe to be true, regardless of whether the information in question is true or not. There are lots of shysters that prey on what you want to believe, and the best way to immunize ourselves from being downright gullible is to identify and question bull$hit wherever it shows up. Even if (or better yet specially if) it supports something we want to believe.

  4. #4864

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    Quote Originally Posted by DBCooper View Post
    I don't disagree with your statement at all.

    The problem I'm getting at is our personal biases that draw us to notice those things we believe to be true, regardless of whether the information in question is true or not. There are lots of shysters that prey on what you want to believe, and the best way to immunize ourselves from being downright gullible is to identify and question bull$hit wherever it shows up. Even if (or better yet specially if) it supports something we want to believe.
    Good point..Yes it could be anything. The mind is an incredible piece of art can create thought castles in the air then dwell in their creation. Any seed planted in ones mind can grow and flourish. We have all been indoctrinated into believing a seed planted in our minds that stuck and grew. Take religion or being a gold bug for example. somebody somewhere in your life taught you to believe in gold or precious metals and it stuck you believed it.. Our minds go in leaps and bounds to find every excuse that is true to ones belief. And it helps have friends who don't agree and guide us show us another way. Thanks. The main thing is simply find something you love to do. I enjoy trying to look into the future and predict something that may happen based on the information my mind will seek out. I feel vulnerable where I live so it helps to see whats coming. (it has not been wrong since this thread started but has taken a very long time to play out the slowest moving trainwreck). So far the premise of this thread is Deflation Precedes Hyperinflation Long answer. It has been a long answer so far we never had the deflation part preceding hyperinflation. It got papered over and we have debt instead. It looks kinda gloomy and volatile based on the information my mind absorbed lately. So I suppose my mind is feeding off that gloom headed our way and to keep preppin. But the mind is also brilliant because it can still enjoy the birds singing children laughter like clicking a radio dial to change stations focus on other things. However I still think the POG will go down this one from Luke Gromen is counter intuitive. The FEDs finally want deflation. Don't fight the FED. lol.

    Luke Gromen on Twitter.
    Jan’s chart shows something critical:

    When global demand for physical gold rose so much in 2013 that London exported ~2,000 tons of gold, the price of gold…crashed

    On Wall St, the only time massive demand crashes the price of an asset is during bank run on collateral (ask SBF)

    https://twitter.com/LukeGromen/statu...73227604819968

  5. #4865

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    So the US will start a war with Ghana next? lol another nail in the coffin for Petrol dollar the nails seem to increase in number and getting bigger.

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/comm...vp-2022-11-24/

  6. #4866

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    Quote Originally Posted by DBCooper View Post
    ... the best way to immunize ourselves from being downright gullible is to identify and question bull$hit wherever it shows up. Even if (or better yet specially if) it supports something we want to believe.
    That is sage advice.
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  7. #4867

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    Putin could offer 2 barrels of oil for a gram of gold and possibly break something

    First on CNN: Defense bill takes aim at Russia’s pot of gold

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/08/busin...old/index.html
    Last edited by dukadan; 12-08-2022 at 11:28 PM.

  8. #4868

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    This little tidbit from that link is interesting:

    "If passed, the defense bill would directly sanction any American entities that knowingly transact with or transport gold from Russia’s central bank holdings. "


    ...considering that Comex put Russian bars on the good delivery list after their little default a couple of Marches ago.
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  9. #4869

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    I have been thinking about this long running thread as interest rates have gone up and up. According to the theory of many here, including the original poster, the fed could not bring up interest rates to high, as then debt, especially government debt, would have interest to high to afford.

    Looks like they were all dead wrong. The Fed did jack up rates to stop hyperinflation.

    Now, as I had predicted here many years ago, inflation would continue. They can turn the spigot of money creation on and off as needed to keep all under control (and there are many methods of creation and destruction of what are essentially digits of no measure). Of course, they will turn it on again, as long term (controlled) inflation is part of their game. And as I have said above, U.S. military force and aid would also be used as needed to keep the fraud dollar's power. No matter, owning gold still does well -we do not need hyperinflation to make it worth it. Better than owning bonds (or you can consult with "Brutus" on the joys of long term aaa corporate bonds).

    The reports of inflation will continue to give a false picture of inflation being lower than it actually is. This is par for the course, what the banker-state, with fiat control a big part of their power, ALWAYS, does, no matter "here or there". The illusion of less inflation than the reality is one way they get so many to play along.

    Nothing dramatic here folks. All is visible for all to see. No secrets needed. It's just a matter of what the people will accept or not. They want to be led by distant soft handed strangers they do not know, they will be led by such strangers. However, I find it hard to accept that so many people can think these strangers actually love and care about them. They do not; prepare and act accordingly, for if you don't see what these soft hands are really up to --well, good chance you are one who has been playing as there fool and sucker.

    “Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring class of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money.”Daniel Webster (1782-1852)
    Last edited by motocat; 11-28-2023 at 03:38 PM.
    “Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring class of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money.”Daniel Webster (1782-1852)

  10. #4870

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    The FED did not stop jack.

    The higher interest rates are NOT sustainable, long term. They have already eaten the seed corn and now they just have smoke and mirrors.

    The interest on the federal debt is now so immense that it’s consuming 40% of all personal income taxes.

    And now the Treasury is projecting interest payments for the fiscal year will exceed $1 trillion.

    Nope, the FED did not stop anything and we are teetering on a knife edge. Things like this fail slowly, then all AT ONCE. Be prepared, you only get ONE SHOT AT THIS.

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