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Thread: A Bubble or a Bull?

  1. #141

    Thumbs up silver standard?

    Dear FMS,
    sorry to interrupt the current bubble or bull topic here, but would you be so kind to discuss the link im sending here for the future?

    hint: chinese on the silver standard/1929 great depression...

    thanks in advance


    http://eh.net/XIIICongress/cd/papers/3Lai68.pdf
    sometimes one must go into the darkness to find the light...

  2. #142

    Default The most important topic.

    Quote Originally Posted by chrisiden View Post
    Dear FMS,
    sorry to interrupt the current bubble or bull topic here, but would you be so kind to discuss the link im sending here for the future?

    hint: chinese on the silver standard/1929 great depression...

    thanks in advance


    http://eh.net/XIIICongress/cd/papers/3Lai68.pdf
    Dear friend, you have come across an issue that is the single most important current issue of our time. It surprises me that not that many of our dear peers here at Kitco choose to concern themselves with this matter.

    However, this topic is far more extensive than simply Ag. This is matter to go to war over. I have been doing some research on the overall transfer from the West to the East. This is not a wealth transfer alone, it is much, much more. It is a total transfer and I have already identified at least three prerequisite stages that must be fulfilled to ensure the sustainability of the act.

    It does not surprise me that you specifically inquire about the above. You always have seemed to me as a person that choses to know and worry than a person that choses to not in the name of ignorance.

    I promise you, one way or another, we will gradually be expanding on this issue. I will at that point tell you that if we can substitute the word "Ag" for "commodities" we get much closer to a realistic description of what is occurring presently.

    The only question is whether the Chinese central planners will invest in their Asian neighbors in order to ensure economic continuity through trade agreements. If they do so, the Chinese will be the Germany of East. Controlling commerce and controlling the New Asian currency. Now only will this be sustainable in itself but it will necessarily attract capital from the depleted West.

    This would be the best case scenario my dear friend. It is my personal belief that it will not go this way. I have written many times before on this important issue and I retain the view that the current strategy is much more militaristic, much less diplomatic and bound to fail in the near term and thus in the long term as well.

    Overall, with the rapid demise of the West, it seems as if the East is rising, in actuality however it is not. We will speak again about this issue at which point I will provide more information on the strategic mistakes and otherwise the Chinese have already made.

    I thank you for this chance dear friend.

    PS: I deviated from the topic of Ag accumulation to support a Ag-standard, since as I am sure we both understand, it expands into more crucial elements of our future life, Western liberty under a new power center.


    -FMS.-

  3. #143

    Default The Reversal and the Test.

    Dear friends, I hope you have all had a great week and took much advantage of the recent (Nov 9th - Nov 17th) noticeable dip in precious metals prices to increase your positions. As we see in the next post, the reversal is complete and now we are returning back to our channel movement.

    The reasons for that short term trend are of course the news coming from China, paired with the US leading role in the currency wars. For more on this please visit and search the following thread:

    https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=64568&page=149

    In brief, the reversal in PM has stopped and is confirmed by the Nov 17th price action which recorded positive momentum in all charts (we will write about this later).

    There is now talk about medium term USD strength. This should affect long term direction but not so much as it will the near term. I am very hesitant to believe that this could ever be case since neither technicals (refer to $USD full analysis coming up soon) nor the fundamentals support this argument. Actually, there is much more synergy caused on the short side of the trade. For example, China is most definitely not done with their interest rate hikes and the FED is continuing its Q/E++ money printing policy while yields on the long and short side of the yield curve are about to increase.

    Of course, I personally do not see a reason why this week should not be a very positive one for Ag and Pd specially but we should share at least some analysis so far as the majors are concerned and make mention of the most evident fundamental parameters capable of influencing PM. There is however one minor test that Ag will have to pass to ensure there is no secondary (lesser in this case) residual reversal and it involves the strength on the EUR against itself (inflationary pressure) and of course against the other non USD majors.

    Your comments are more than welcomed and I invite you to join me here for another great investment week.


    Thank you.


    -FMS.-

  4. #144

    Arrow

    FMS what happened to you...?
    we are missing your postings and teachings...


    Merry Christmas Happy New

    chrisiden
    sometimes one must go into the darkness to find the light...

  5. #145

    Default

    FMS your bang on the money dude and you constantly hit on something that is a bit lost round these parts.

    Total government corruption.

    I have run forums in the past and crowd control is always the biggest pain. These forums are a delight and folk always stick to the rules, fantastic! I have kind of senced that most people steer away from running the governments of the world in to the ground as its considered off-topic as most posts here are very very specific. However to me and just like in your posts FMS it should crop up in every other paragraph.

    Don't get me wrong lots of folk talk about the SHTF or as i would put it Downfall round here, its just lacks.. a little urgency. Also some of the very technical posts on here, from very experienced time served market traders i find a bit laughable as they still belive in the overall corrupt system being just fine..

    So Brilliant! as far as im concerned our Elitist corrupt war mongering baby killing eugenicist government should be discussed in most if not all posts as its relevant to almost every conversation regarding any form of money. Or at very least should not be considered of topic. Hey the SHTF guys might be right.. better to er on the side of caution

    OFF WITH THEIR HEADS!!

  6. #146

    Default

    Yes...
    I am missing the postings.....
    Where are you?

    I dont know about others, but Important threads, I usually do not corrupt with my ramblings...
    Doesnt mean, I am not reading them!

    JudyG

  7. #147

    Default

    FMS Do you think that there is a relationship between the rising price of oil and the rising price of PM's? It seems to me that currencies are not just getting devalued they are getting destroyed and that physical gold is only thing left to invest in. I think that any paper profits should be turned immediately to physical gold while there is actually any left to buy.

    What are your thoughts about the future role of gold in the world? Other than a black market opening up do you think whatever currency or PTB that evolves will allow personal holding, bartering or the like.

    I highly respect your opinions and wish them to continue.

  8. #148

    Default My mind too.

    Quote Originally Posted by Arcturus View Post
    FMS Do you think that there is a relationship between the rising price of oil and the rising price of PM's? It seems to me that currencies are not just getting devalued they are getting destroyed and that physical gold is only thing left to invest in. I think that any paper profits should be turned immediately to physical gold while there is actually any left to buy.

    What are your thoughts about the future role of gold in the world? Other than a black market opening up do you think whatever currency or PTB that evolves will allow personal holding, bartering or the like.

    I highly respect your opinions and wish them to continue.
    Dear friend I will express to you my sincere opinions so far as Fiat (FOREX), Energy (OIL and LNG) and PMs are concerned.

    What I will share with you are also my personal views on the current events that shape the world at present and perhaps the future. These views underlie my personal investment strategies and I consider they provide solidity to my credibility.

    My first point is that there is no future in fiat whatsoever. Be it that the EUR or the USD or the JPY, GBP or whatever new currency is derived or reigns victorious from the current currency wars, so far as FIAT is concerned it is a mathematical impossibility that it will be long lasting.

    Currently we are witnessing a reverse race, a race to the bottom, where each government strives to devalue its currency the most, in order to boost exports and reduce imports. The idea of a trade surplus is a very good one but what many non-economist do not seem to comprehend is that currently virtually all trade surpluses are counter-balanced not by an increase of FOREX reserves at current (Present Purchasing Power) but instead by an increase in Foreign Debt via the issuance of sovereign bonds. The interest as well as the capital cannot be financed in no other way other than by the issuance of more currency which is collateralized by more sovereign debt and so forth. The solution out of this problematic situation should be obvious to all non-politicians: Ending deficit spending, lowering taxes to promote economic growth and allowing for competitive, free market principles to govern commerce.

    It is the incompatibility of the above ideals with the inherit nature of politics leads us to the certainty of the demise of fiat money. Does this mean with necessity that we should fully invest in precious metals? NO.- But it can be derived with certainty that we should not at all invest in fiat currency or fiat derivatives such as sovereign debt and paper (dollar denominated) assets. Actually there is a strong incentive to eliminate all such investments and promote the rational, intrinsic, physical investments such as metals and other select commodities, agricultural products, water technologies and land.

    The rise in the price of OIL and LNG is very much expected. Not only is energy very inelastic but demand for it has not seized in the East. This accompanied with the drop of the universal, international price measure (USD) can only signal a further price rise. This once again concludes to be a question of causation and correlation, as are most causal relations we observe. OIL rises and does not Cause PM to rise with it (as Ag would with Au or OIL would with LNG) but instead the correlation is a result of a common denominator: Dollar inflation and Demand for these input resources.

    The last question you pose is of the most importance and is one I have personally contemplated on many instances. A brief period of barter is not impossible but it is, in my mind, very unlikely. The De Facto PTB will have already factored this in their models and will strive to have a new system to substitute the old much before the former is rendered a failure. This hypothetical system must be of such great magnificence that even those For Free Markets and those For Liberty will readily accept it.**

    **A barter system, is an ultimate free market system incorporating all possible degrees of freedom for the engaged individuals an therefore none for a third party such as a mediator or a government. There is no gain, no tax, no fee for the third party, therefore a strong disinterest toward it.

    I can assume it will however be such a system that when voted for will have all its secrets well hidden from the common man. I know this due the pattern that has governed the US congress so far as legislative voting is concerned. It is always in the form of an ultimatum, its function is always the mere opposite of what it promises to be and it always publicly opposed by those who have financed it from its inception to its implementations.

    It is a moral obligation against the conscious individual to store the rational sum of his effort in a form he considers the most appropriate. We must understand however that if this implies that an individual which has had the opportunity to store true wealth in the form of fiat currency then this individual too is rational in his own accord. We can only educate the sheeple but due to their inherit flaws we can never force upon them the guarantee of success.

    Dear friend I await your response and your comments.

    -Let there be more artificial USD strength, such as which we have seen recently, it is what men such as us require to strengthen our position ever more. Also be ware of Au, it is fore-casted to outperform Ag in this first quarter of 2011.

    Thank you.

    -FMS.-

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