Thread: Major Market Movements - Technical Analysis Discussion

  1. #24811

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    Anyone else frustrated with the turn of events today?

    On the one hand the daily RSI for gold and silver are under 30, which to me means buy buy buy.

    On the other hand the futures numbers are not indicating the bottom is near, as a matter of fact they seem to indicate more downwards action will be coming.

    Also the movement of gold and silver today was lethargic. . . not what one would expect if this was a bottom.

    I guess I`m just rambling, too bad the RSI is not above 30 or on the other hand futures numbers and action today were bullish

  2. #24812

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    Quote Originally Posted by qwerty View Post
    the HUI looks depressing. broke support lines some time ago
    Sharp end of day hits to GSS, GPL, THM, AZK, XRA, RBY, MDW, JAG (-19%). But then juniors NSU, SA, and SAND had nice up moves. SAND's move effectively tested the breakdown of the 5 month uptrend line from 3 days ago. Far from out of the woods yet. JAG at 58c might be following the GBG path to Chapter 11 bankruptcy if this keeps up. Still shows that any weakness can be exploited by shaking the tree a bit. Sinclair's TRX which is normally immune to raids had its 4th day down on large volume. Maybe it's time for it to see a C leg. No real strength across the senior golds or silvers either. I see them all susceptible to another good hit by next week. Gold seemed to stop at the key $1660-$1668 breakout area first defined back in August 2010 and at the 62% fib retrace ($1658) of this last down leg from $1672 to $1635. The 10y/2y Treasury yield ratio closed for the 4th week above the 40 week ma. Even with the slight pull back this week it is still confirming a breakout of the 15th month downtrend line. This appears to behave similarly to the gold volatility index. If the Yen topping against the USD back in October 2011 is a big factor in gold's weakness since that time, it will make things a lot more difficult to figure out going forward...unless another sure fire Gold/currency carry trade to wager on steps forward. Still have broken down monthly and weekly macd in gold. Looks like the weekly rsi needs to get to 40 to match the previous 2 bottoms (rsi now at 44.7).
    Last edited by Numisgold; 12-21-2012 at 05:12 PM.

  3. #24813

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    Quote Originally Posted by RobbMatthew View Post
    Silver will probably bounce to the 38% retrace of this move to around 30.20. I would cover the short now and take profit, then liquidate your long at that point and cut your losses. Then figure out what your next move will be.

    Thats just me. I am bearish, have been since may 2011, I am still expecting low 20's. you'll get both sides of the pond here.
    30.20 hit, and down we go...

  4. #24814

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    In reviewing the end of day closes there are some real strange volume patterns in the juniors. GPL and others mentioned above had massive volume in the last 5-15 min of trading. Almost 600K GPL shares in the last 5 minutes of trading knocking the price instantly down to $1.45. It's as if they ran all the nearby stops. Same action occurred in 6-10 other juniors as well (THM, AZK, PZG, GSS, etc.) Not sure what was going on. Either a junior fund dumping in mass because of something bad coming next week...or a market maker running all the stops to buy 'em all cheap. GSS was hammered at the close with 1.5 MILL shares sold in the last 5 min. The amount of volume in those 5-15 min was in some cases on the order of an entire normal week's volume. I'm befuddled as to what's going on and what's coming at us next week. Sort of reminds me of the massive Nugt volume on August 1st when someone ran all the stops and nullified a week's worth of gains in one morning. Fat "goldfingers" or something else?

  5. #24815
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    1,642

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    thanks numisgold for the report on the dumping of miner stocks. next week should be interesting. xmas holiday makes it kind of a weird week. a lot of times many different indicators will line up. this week, not so much and somewhat confusing.

  6. #24816

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    Thanks for the heads up Numis... Somethings going on behind the scene... I say bounce but I'd rather let a little time pass... Distrust in US gov should be high over the next couple weeks and that usually gives gold a bounce while market falls some... Tax increase for majority will cause mayhem and major distrust and disappointment with politicians...

  7. #24817

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    Quote Originally Posted by Numisgold View Post
    In reviewing the end of day closes there are some real strange volume patterns in the juniors. GPL and others mentioned above had massive volume in the last 5-15 min of trading. Almost 600K GPL shares in the last 5 minutes of trading knocking the price instantly down to $1.45. It's as if they ran all the nearby stops. Same action occurred in 6-10 other juniors as well (THM, AZK, PZG, GSS, etc.) Not sure what was going on. Either a junior fund dumping in mass because of something bad coming next week...or a market maker running all the stops to buy 'em all cheap. GSS was hammered at the close with 1.5 MILL shares sold in the last 5 min. The amount of volume in those 5-15 min was in some cases on the order of an entire normal week's volume. I'm befuddled as to what's going on and what's coming at us next week. Sort of reminds me of the massive Nugt volume on August 1st when someone ran all the stops and nullified a week's worth of gains in one morning. Fat "goldfingers" or something else?
    Numi:

    Where do you get to see those live action trade volumes?

  8. #24818
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Posts
    1,595

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    Quote Originally Posted by Numisgold View Post
    In reviewing the end of day closes there are some real strange volume patterns in the juniors. GPL and others mentioned above had massive volume in the last 5-15 min of trading. Almost 600K GPL shares in the last 5 minutes of trading knocking the price instantly down to $1.45. It's as if they ran all the nearby stops. Same action occurred in 6-10 other juniors as well (THM, AZK, PZG, GSS, etc.) Not sure what was going on. Either a junior fund dumping in mass because of something bad coming next week...or a market maker running all the stops to buy 'em all cheap. GSS was hammered at the close with 1.5 MILL shares sold in the last 5 min. The amount of volume in those 5-15 min was in some cases on the order of an entire normal week's volume. I'm befuddled as to what's going on and what's coming at us next week. Sort of reminds me of the massive Nugt volume on August 1st when someone ran all the stops and nullified a week's worth of gains in one morning. Fat "goldfingers" or something else?
    It could be that this along with COT shorts still not low enough means more down side in miners.

  9. #24819

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    The action of miners was not limited to juniors only but it extended to some seniors like AEM.

    I have loaded fully NUGT (as well humm 100% of portfolio) during last few days. at avg cost close to 10$. So was watching every tick of around 15 miners.

    While looking at this takedown with finger ready to sell button, i did not pull the trigger.
    Because extremly important to note was the action of highest market cap of the gold miners namely ABX, NEM, GG were more or less immune to this raid in miners. Also AEM which had this raid (the one which does not usually fluctuate too much intraday ) had a 1% run up around 3pm.

    All in all my conclusion was it is some miners fund of mostly juniors which was selling big positions, as either get out before volatility or end of the year portfolio adjustment.

    No doubt whatsoever that at this point Gold VIX is increasing and also the "Gold miners VIX" is increasing even more.

    Very interesting and volatile times lies ahead in next couple of weeks.
    I come to this thread as the most respected place to get the best analysis from likes of Quad, Numis etc. Thanks a lot.

    All fundamentals from last FOMC decision to around the world money printing is in full throttle. The main reason for 12 yr long gold bull is still very much in place. So at a technically critical juncture I am betting big on the upside breakout. The numbers I am looking at as most critical first is 1667-1672 (200 dma-breakdown point) a close above 1680 imvho will almost confirm bottom is in. At this point of 1656 we remain in neutral zone.

    Thanks again for great thread.
    Last edited by anandk123; 12-22-2012 at 10:51 AM.

  10. #24820

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    Anyone knows platform that I can apply the VIX TRIN PCVA for gold?

    Thanks

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