Results 1 to 4 of 4

Thread: Doing very well if, or when, it all comes down

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Nov 2017

    Default Doing very well if, or when, it all comes down

    I just read this in an article on

    G&R presents a chart showing over the last 130 years, there have been four times when commodities became very undervalued compared to the stock market, measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

    image-20230703082605-6Source: Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates

    These four periods, corresponding to the lowest points on the green line, were 1929, the late 1960s, the late 1990s, and today. The key message is that after each stint of undervaluation, commodities entered large bull markets, before becoming overvalued.

    Investors who were smart (and brave) enough to invest during undervalued periods saw huge gains, even in the 1930s. For example, investing in a natural resource portfolio (25% metals and mining, 25% precious metals, 25% agriculture, 25% energy) in 1929 would have returned 122% by 1940, clobbering the stock market, which fell 50% during this time.

    Rozencwajg notes that every time there has been a major change in the monetary system, it corresponds to a low point in the charts of commodity prices relative to financial assets.

    “So here we have another bottom, the cheapest price commodities have ever been relative to financial assets, and we’ve been saying since 2018 there’s going to be a change in the global monetary system and so I think that we’re starting to see that now.”

    Such a change has already happened three times in the past century: in 1929, the end of the classical gold exchange standard; in 1971, when President Nixon took the United States off the gold standard; and in 1999, during the Asian currency crisis when several countries in

  2. #2

    Thumbs up

    I Believe it.. Gold (and silver) are REAL Money.
    it's why we hold some.. Right?
    and the More the better..

  3. #3


    That's a whole lot of cherry picking. If you are going to do that, why not pick the points when the stock market did backflips to show how much better it is?

    It is not a competition as to which one is better, they serve different purposes on your overall wealth distribution.

  4. #4


    I'm going to cherry pick a little tonight. I just noticed that DXY bumped up today, but gold did not fall back. The usual knee jerk didn't happen. I may start watching DXY more closely again.
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts