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Thread: Gdx & gdxj

  1. #1

    Default Gdx & gdxj

    Both ETF's just readjusted their holdings, which they do several times a year. So going forward they may not reflect past movements in the same way.


    GDXJ seems to have few "juniors" in the top ten holdings, IMHO: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GDXJ/holdings/
    American Legion Preamble: https://www.legion.org/preamble

  2. #2

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    These funds have performed horribly over the years especialy GDXJ, far worse than gold. I have been trying to find good time to unload them, and/or trade with gold on the ups and downs so that eventually the funds I committed to them will catch up to gold. This has been difficult. They pay little dividends, and seem to be falling further away from gold value over time.

    One of the biggest investment mistakes I've made was in thinking getting into gold miners was like doubling down on gold value in fiat going up. I got that part right, gold value went way up in fiat - -however the miners did not do better, rather they have lagged simple value of physical gold greatly.
    “Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring class of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money.”Daniel Webster (1782-1852)

  3. #3

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    motorcat, miners, especially junior miners, are a crap shoot at best and do not reflect the POG/POS. They are more like ponzi schemes, but with the hopes for a long term payoff. If you think waiting for Au/Ag to go to the moon is slow, waiting for a junior miner to pay off is more like waiting for the many world plates to move. But when they do move you should also be ready to fire the sell button since the peak may disappear faster than a speeding bullet. That's why I'm addicted to investing in them.
    American Legion Preamble: https://www.legion.org/preamble

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongDonSilver View Post
    Both ETF's just readjusted their holdings, which they do several times a year. So going forward they may not reflect past movements in the same way.


    GDXJ seems to have few "juniors" in the top ten holdings, IMHO: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GDXJ/holdings/

    I don't have these two ETF's but do have a precious metals mining fund which hasn't done well at all. Not counting dividends and some capital gains distributions along the way, the share price is actually slightly lower than it was back in September 2016 when I started buying it. At least I have been taking advantage of low prices since then, especially during the COVID crash three years ago as well as last summer, so I can't complain too much.

    When will it ever take off? That is the question and, yes, it has been very frustrating. My fund is concentrated in small and mid sized miners who usually do well once a bull market gets rolling. When I feel like giving up hope, I try to keep in mind that the mining index HUI soared 1,664% between 2001 and 2011 so I might as well keep the faith.

  5. #5

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    Rick Rule on junior miners: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doFlxY1--Yo
    American Legion Preamble: https://www.legion.org/preamble

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongDonSilver View Post

    A really good video and thanks for sharing. I don't have the time, energy, and smarts to figure out what junior companies (or any for that matter) are best. I will always remember being at the Hard Assets investment conference in New York City many years ago -2008 I believe - and some speaker (possibly even Rule himself) told the audience not to believe anything the salesman at the various company booths were saying. That's why I have a gold/precious metals mutual fund. Once the gold bull really starts going, it seems very likely that the juniors will do much better than they are nowadays. Note that Rule is generally bullish on gold.

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by aberdeen View Post
    A really good video and thanks for sharing. I don't have the time, energy, and smarts to figure out what junior companies (or any for that matter) are best. I will always remember being at the Hard Assets investment conference in New York City many years ago -2008 I believe - and some speaker (possibly even Rule himself) told the audience not to believe anything the salesman at the various company booths were saying. That's why I have a gold/precious metals mutual fund. Once the gold bull really starts going, it seems very likely that the juniors will do much better than they are nowadays. Note that Rule is generally bullish on gold.
    I have learned the lesson of not even believing the published filings of the junior miners the hard way. One of my "best" performing juniors (a few years ago) was flying high and overnight dropped about 75% since they had to restate their filings which showed that it was total BS and they were full of $hit. That hurt. Even if the exchange took action against them, it didn't change the fact that hey were full of $hit and the loss of money was not to be recovered. That showed me that unless you personally went to the mine site and verified the story being pushed, that in many cases, the truth was far different that the hot air coming from the mouths of the management. The management is mostly interested in getting paid and getting paid a lot. Unless they had a lot of skin in the game (ownership) that they were only interested in BS'ing the investors.
    American Legion Preamble: https://www.legion.org/preamble

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongDonSilver View Post
    I have learned the lesson of not even believing the published filings of the junior miners the hard way. One of my "best" performing juniors (a few years ago) was flying high and overnight dropped about 75% since they had to restate their filings which showed that it was total BS and they were full of $hit. That hurt. Even if the exchange took action against them, it didn't change the fact that hey were full of $hit and the loss of money was not to be recovered. That showed me that unless you personally went to the mine site and verified the story being pushed, that in many cases, the truth was far different that the hot air coming from the mouths of the management. The management is mostly interested in getting paid and getting paid a lot. Unless they had a lot of skin in the game (ownership) that they were only interested in BS'ing the investors.

    Although it's more fun and possibly more rewarding to have individual stocks in any industry, I just want to keep my investing on the simpler side so go with mutual funds. Right now I have a gold/precious metals fund and a global resources/metals fund. If, or when, the overall stock market crashes 50% or more, I probably will get an index fund.

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