Page 4 of 12 FirstFirst 12345678910 ... LastLast
Results 31 to 40 of 113

Thread: Credit Conditions

  1. #31

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SilverPalm View Post
    ...& perhaps that caused some push back?
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cr...rsonal-reasons
    Time for the anti suicide jumping out of buildings nets?
    What's the Frequency, Kenneth?

    432Hz

  2. #32

    Default

    Getting tighter, but still not quite to 0 ( neutral) yet. Bad things tend to happen when it gets above 0. The higher above 0, the less desirable. ( at least for most).






    ndex Suggests Financial Conditions Tightened Again in Week Ending March 24
    The NFCI was –0.12 in the week ending March 24, up from a revised –0.16 (initially reported as –0.24). Risk indicators contributed –0.02, credit indicators contributed –0.06, and leverage indicators contributed –0.04 to the index in the latest week.

    The ANFCI edged up in the latest week to –0.06 from a revised –0.09 (initially reported as –0.23). Risk indicators contributed –0.04, credit indicators contributed –0.02, leverage indicators contributed –0.04, and the adjustments for prevailing macroeconomic conditions contributed 0.04 to the index in the latest week.

    The NFCI and ANFCI are each constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one over a sample period extending back to 1971. Positive values of the NFCI have been historically associated with tighter-than-average financial conditions, while negative values have been historically associated with looser-than-average financial conditions. Similarly, positive values of the ANFCI have been historically associated with financial conditions that are tighter than what would be typically suggested by prevailing macroeconomic conditions, while negative values have been historically associated with the opposite.

  3. #33

    Default

    Although below copied report advises that "Index suggests Financial Conditions continued to tighten", the data presented suggests it remained about the same (viewing both indexes and comparing them with last post)
    It remained marginally looser than neutral.

    Until this index hits a positive number ( not far) and until credit on all fronts ( especially consumer) diminishes I remain skeptical that inflation will be brought anywhere near 2% ( CPI) in the longer term.
    It will diminish quite rapidly due to the math of the next 4 months but then it will go back up the rest of the year, for the same reason( all things being equal) In my opinion.



    Index Suggests Financial Conditions Continued to Tighten in Week Ending March 31
    The NFCI edged up to –0.13 in the week ending March 31. Risk indicators contributed –0.01, credit indicators contributed –0.04, and leverage indicators contributed –0.07 to the index in the latest week.

    The ANFCI ticked up in the latest week to –0.04. Risk indicators contributed –0.03, credit indicators contributed –0.01, leverage indicators contributed –0.04, and the adjustments for prevailing macroeconomic conditions contributed 0.04 to the index in the latest week.

    The NFCI and ANFCI are each constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one over a sample period extending back to 1971. Positive values of the NFCI have been historically associated with tighter-than-average financial conditions, while negative values have been historically associated with looser-than-average financial conditions. Similarly, positive values of the ANFCI have been historically associated with financial conditions that are tighter than what would be typically suggested by prevailing macroeconomic conditions, while negative values have been historically associated with the opposite.

  4. #34

    Default

    https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/i...?itok=wZiN5Vvh
    This is a chart of banks listed by percentage of uninsured deposits. It might be interesting to see which ones get into trouble first. SVB was at the top.
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  5. #35

    Default

    The next credit crunch will be when banks have to have unrealized losses on loans and not be able to sell them because they were issued at low interest rates. Be it auto, commercial property or home loans. As the economy tanks more loans will go into default. The Fed keeping interest rates high will just increase the chance of more banks running out of cash. Banks should be issuing new loans to create new money to help the economy grow, but instead they are tightening. Timber, look out below!
    Do your own due diligence

    I stand united with my friends & family in Canada who seek freedom.

  6. #36

    Default

    I hear it's the commercial real estate credit that is going to fall off the cliff. Many big properties in downtown areas are not needed as the people are not retuning to work in central locations as they were. Chicago wants to turn them into housing.....

    As the low interest loans come due for refinance it's going to be a brick wall when occupancy is way down..
    What's the Frequency, Kenneth?

    432Hz

  7. #37

    Default

    The US economy continues to exhibit marginally loose to neutral financial conditions. ( despite the noise)
    This could be assisted by the massive increase in fiscal deficit this budget year and the decrease in term loan interest rates in the past 6 months
    Term Current 6 months ago
    2 yr 3.9 4.3
    5 yr 3.4 4.1
    10 yr 3.4 3.9
    30 yr 3.6 3.9

    The lack of corporate credit tightening can also be seen in the junk bond spread, which is historically at a neutral rate.

    Consumer Credit as of end of February was at an all time high.

    This does not mean that the trend has not been tighter ( it has) but not to the degree one would expect.
    It does not also mean, that at any time another ' credit event' will accelerate this trend. I still think this is a significant possibility.
    It also does not mean that many people and corporate sectors are not far more affected than others ( they are)

    It may just show how the massive injection of liquidity in 2020 takes a few years to work out of the system ( M2 money supply rate of change is dropping significantly) but the
    and also how the greatly expanding federal deficits are slowing the day of reckoning also. ( Gravity)

    The March deficit is coming out later today and I am betting it is going to be a very big one.



    Index Suggests Steady Financial Conditions in Week Ending April 7
    The NFCI was unchanged at –0.18 in the week ending April 7. Risk indicators contributed –0.04, credit indicators contributed –0.06, and leverage indicators contributed –0.07 to the index in the latest week.

    The ANFCI edged down in the latest week to –0.13. Risk indicators contributed –0.08, credit indicators contributed –0.04, leverage indicators contributed –0.05, and the adjustments for prevailing macroeconomic conditions contributed 0.04 to the index in the latest week.

    The NFCI and ANFCI are each constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one over a sample period extending back to 1971. Positive values of the NFCI have been historically associated with tighter-than-average financial conditions, while negative values have been historically associated with looser-than-average financial conditions. Similarly, positive values of the ANFCI have been historically associated with financial conditions that are tighter than what would be typically suggested by prevailing macroeconomic conditions, while negative values have been historically associated with the opposite.

  8. #38

    Default

    Geez George I just cannot figure out why the economy has not contracted yet.



    April 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. government recorded a $378-billion budget deficit in March as outlays outpaced revenues, the Treasury Department said on Wednesday. That compared to a budget deficit of $193 billion in the same month last year, according to the Treasury's monthly budget statement.17 mins ago.


    Geez George, I thought someone said the US economy was running along okay. Wonder why the Budget deficit is up 65% so far in the first 6 months. That sounds to me like a mighty big increase.

  9. #39

    Default

    Interesting. This index(s) has been very accurate since its inception in 1971. The site has great graphs ti illustrate that fact.

    It makes sense since credit is what drives a fiat monetary system. I keep hearing that credit is tightening. It has not recently and is nowhere near being where it needs to be for any material pain. Does not mean that it will not happen soon, but something needs to break.
    Significant rising interest rates must lead to significant deterioration in financial conditions or they will just be inflationary.
    That is the whole point of them..

    Index Suggests Financial Conditions Loosened in Week Ending April 14
    The NFCI ticked down to –0.24 in the week ending April 14. Risk indicators contributed –0.07, credit indicators contributed –0.09, and leverage indicators contributed –0.08 to the index in the latest week.

    The ANFCI moved down in the latest week to –0.22. Risk indicators contributed –0.14, credit indicators contributed –0.07, leverage indicators contributed –0.05, and the adjustments for prevailing macroeconomic conditions contributed 0.04 to the index in the latest week.

  10. #40

    Default

    The RedRaspberry unsolicited credit offer index is quite active. Not 0% though, but long term at undisclosed rates.
    What's the Frequency, Kenneth?

    432Hz

Page 4 of 12 FirstFirst 12345678910 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •