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Thread: Credit Conditions

  1. #21

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    http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com...d-fed-put.html

    this guy seems to think that the Fed put is a thing of the past. The current market prices seem to suggest that investors expect otherwise. It will be interesting to see who is correct. If this guy is right, then investors will be bag holders. If he is wrong, then investors will be further advantaged compared to the average working stiff.
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  2. #22

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    The National Financial Conditions Index still saying financial conditions are still fairly loose, especially relative to " would be typically suggested by prevailing economic conditions"

    This index needs to get above 0 for some pain to happen, in my opinion, and what is suggested by its historical record.


    Who cares how high interest rates go, or anything else for that matter, as long as someone is willing to give you the money. Key words are as long as.




    Index Suggests Steady Financial Conditions in Week Ending March 3
    The NFCI was unchanged at –0.38 in the week ending March 3. Risk indicators contributed –0.12, credit indicators contributed –0.14, and leverage indicators contributed –0.11 to the index in the latest week.

    The ANFCI ticked up in the latest week to –0.39. Risk indicators contributed –0.13, credit indicators contributed –0.10, leverage indicators contributed –0.10, and the adjustments for prevailing macroeconomic conditions contributed –0.05 to the index in the latest week.

    The NFCI and ANFCI are each constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one over a sample period extending back to 1971. Positive values of the NFCI have been historically associated with tighter-than-average financial conditions, while negative values have been historically associated with looser-than-average financial conditions. Similarly, positive values of the ANFCI have been historically associated with financial conditions that are tighter than what would be typically suggested by prevailing macroeconomic conditions, while negative values have been historically associated with the opposite.

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    13,314

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    Quote Originally Posted by SilverPalm View Post
    http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com...d-fed-put.html

    this guy seems to think that the Fed put is a thing of the past. The current market prices seem to suggest that investors expect otherwise. It will be interesting to see who is correct. If this guy is right, then investors will be bag holders. If he is wrong, then investors will be further advantaged compared to the average working stiff.
    From what I heard from Powell today, he and they are a thing of the past. Helpless to resolve what they created.
    Who are the righteous? ....Markpti

    What value did Burisma think to gain by hiring Hunter Biden as a Board member vs ALL other choices?

    Those who cannot articulate the other argument do not fully understand their own argument.

    "Much can be done by wise legislation and by resolute enforcement of the law. But still much more must be done
    by steady training of the individual - in conscience and character...." .......T. Roosevelt

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    13,314

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SilverPalm View Post
    http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com...d-fed-put.html

    this guy seems to think that the Fed put is a thing of the past. The current market prices seem to suggest that investors expect otherwise. It will be interesting to see who is correct. If this guy is right, then investors will be bag holders. If he is wrong, then investors will be further advantaged compared to the average working stiff.
    From what I heard from Powell today, he and they are a thing of the past. Helpless to resolve what they created.
    Who are the righteous? ....Markpti

    What value did Burisma think to gain by hiring Hunter Biden as a Board member vs ALL other choices?

    Those who cannot articulate the other argument do not fully understand their own argument.

    "Much can be done by wise legislation and by resolute enforcement of the law. But still much more must be done
    by steady training of the individual - in conscience and character...." .......T. Roosevelt

  5. #25

    Default

    The bankruptcies to get rid of 1 trillion in CC debt will be interesting. Guys I know who live with their trash girls say they will be doing bankruptcy, they stay home, don't work, gamble, drink, etc. why work when they can live dirty cheap, quality of life is poor but good luck getting ahead.

    I don't get CC applications in the mail, and I'm at 830. But, about 8 years ago I messed with BOA, they wanted to know my nationality, I filled out the forms saying I'm muslim and just hanging out here enjoying America they made a big deal out of it, sending me more forms, etc. I would send them back blank with a note and say how can you know not who I am by now, and so I closed my account. Their systems were always being hacked, as in my CC numbers anyway. They would allow a charge on a CC number that was defcunct years prior. They all seem to leave me alone now. But, I don't care about CC anymore, I have plenty of them. Mostly I don't travel or have a need for them. I use a Chase Amazon card and then I get the cash back right away on the few purchases I make with them.

    I'm all for paypal, rarely use it but when I buy shop & rob items off ebay they get here fast and cheaper than buying them at the store myself.

    I recently got talked into CD's at 4.25% from my CU. Almost got talked into a HELOC but just got the title/deed for my place a few years back and decided not to give that back to them.

    Now that inflation is out of control, I've discussed why maybe in previous posts and would love us to revisit it somehow, I don't think it matters anymore now. The poor can setup group robberies when the time comes, and get government subsidies, did you guys know agricultural subsidies worldwide are up to 700 billion, and the U.S. is pretty far down on the list, we subsidize but that would be HFCS (corn), and Soybeans.

    I'm not sure who is keeping track of government hand outs but many people I work with who make even $22/hr. are getting WIC / SNAP, just need a couple of kids and a wife that doesn't work, and to of course - work the system. Many have two jobs, or a side business, and they are still getting freebies from government on the side. Many Spanish and Asian people I work with have way more $ than I do, they drive nice cars, own several properties, etc. I do it different, I hunt, garden, live cheap, drive junk, and shop 2nd hand. But, I buy quality food, and water, and know how to source quality food, I don't talk about that to others anymore as it's the golden goose so to speak.

  6. #26

    Default

    Saudis jumped ship on Credit Suisse.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cr...investor-bails

    What's the Frequency, Kenneth?

    432Hz

  7. #27

    Default

    Some minor financial condition tightening up to last Friday.
    Still relatively loose to what I would expect.
    Will be interesting to see the next one.



    Index Suggests Financial Conditions Tightened in Week Ending March 10
    The NFCI ticked up to –0.35 in the week ending March 10. Risk indicators contributed –0.10, credit indicators contributed –0.14, and leverage indicators contributed –0.10 to the index in the latest week.

    The ANFCI also ticked up in the latest week, to –0.37. Risk indicators contributed –0.13, credit indicators contributed –0.10, leverage indicators contributed –0.11, and the adjustments for prevailing macroeconomic conditions contributed –0.03 to the index in the latest week.

  8. #28

    Default

    Still loose but tightening a bit. Shows you how serious the credit masters think the bank scare was ( not much)

    They fear credit default not liquidity or duration risk ( easily fixed by the tap)

    Index Suggests Financial Conditions Tightened in Week Ending March 17
    The NFCI was –0.24 in the week ending March 17, up from a revised –0.27 (initially reported as –0.35). Risk indicators contributed –0.05, credit indicators contributed –0.10, and leverage indicators contributed –0.08 to the index in the latest week.

    The ANFCI moved up in the latest week to –0.23 from a revised –0.27 (initially reported as –0.37). Risk indicators contributed –0.06, credit indicators contributed –0.07, leverage indicators contributed –0.06, and the adjustments for prevailing macroeconomic conditions contributed –0.03 to the index in the latest week.

    The NFCI and ANFCI are each constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one over a sample period extending back to 1971. Positive values of the NFCI have been historically associated with tighter-than-average financial conditions, while negative values have been historically associated with looser-than-average financial conditions. Similarly, positive values of the ANFCI have been historically associated with financial conditions that are tighter than what would be typically suggested by prevailing macroeconomic conditions, while negative values have been historically associated with the opposite.

  9. #29

    Default

    Loan loss provisions are going to go up. It sounds like commercial RE problems this go around. Once they crash it, then they'll buy it, and either remodel or convert into mixed use properties, condo's, apartments, whatever they can flip it into.

    Everything else, the usual, personal bankruptcies, etc. government will keep spending and debasing.

    I see more jobs where people are not producing to add value to America itself. Poor school systems and health care systems, both dominated by women. We see a shortage of mechanics, electricians, plumbers, cops, work women mostly won't do, but men are apparently giving up. And, they sort of can, some of my gfriends are making 3 figures and they are not really producing anything outside banging away on keyboard and telephones, they are not coding either, it's just paperwork, marketing, selling something, who knows what, etc. But, most of my gfriends are great consumers too.

    People are looking for UBI, government handouts, continued rent moratoriums in some cities or states, food banks, disability, SNAP, etc.

    Thus the government is basically printing at light speed, kind of a vicious cycle as inflation continues, and we are looking at 3-4% to become the norm.

  10. #30

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by redraspberry View Post
    Saudis jumped ship on Credit Suisse.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cr...investor-bails

    ...& perhaps that caused some push back?
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cr...rsonal-reasons
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

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