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Thread: Credit Conditions

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
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    Default Credit Conditions

    What do credit conditions mean to the economy? A fiat/debt based one.

    Everything

    Extremely strong correlation to this measure which goes back to 1971 - strangely enough.

    It is a slightly trailing indicator of a little over a week. 0 is neutral. This score is generally negative except for significant economic concern times.

    Still relatively loose credit, not changing much recently. Will post every week, when it comes out.

    I have posted this chart and link often ( down the basement) so if you want to review its high correlation to the economy you can view the 50+ year old chart
    If it goes positive, it is almost a sure sign of some pain happening, the more positive, the more the pain.

    Makes sense logically, if credit is easier, then those granting it are feeling relatively good about the economy. It can change quite quickly though. ( this is my opinion for spring)
    ( the relatively good part is how negative the score is )



    Index Suggests Steady Financial Conditions in Week Ending February 24
    The NFCI was unchanged at 0.41 in the week ending February 24. Risk indicators contributed 0.15, credit indicators contributed 0.14, and leverage indicators contributed 0.11 to the index in the latest week.

    The ANFCI ticked up in the latest week to 0.41. Risk indicators contributed 0.16, credit indicators contributed 0.09, leverage indicators contributed 0.10, and the adjustments for prevailing macroeconomic conditions contributed 0.04 to the index in the latest week.

    The NFCI and ANFCI are each constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one over a sample period extending back to 1971. Positive values of the NFCI have been historically associated with tighter-than-average financial conditions, while negative values have been historically associated with looser-than-average financial conditions. Similarly, positive values of the ANFCI have been historically associated with financial conditions that are tighter than what would be typically suggested by prevailing macroeconomic conditions, while negative values have been historically associated with the opposite.

  2. #2

    Cool

    it's going to Get Very Interesting VERY SOON IMHO brutus..
    (I Have a very good Spidy sense) Though I am No where Near Educated in Finance
    Like Many pf you are
    x3

  3. #3
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    Jun 2008
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by silverone View Post
    it's going to Get Very Interesting VERY SOON IMHO brutus..
    (I Have a very good Spidy sense) Though I am No where Near Educated in Finance
    Like Many pf you are
    I trust spidey-sense far more than any formal education I have had, Silverone.
    Like yourself, the more this sense tells me the establishment narrative is not what is being presented, the more my concern grows.

    "Gut feelings or intuitions come from patterns we've identified in our past experiences. Your subconscious mind continuously processes information that you are not consciously aware of, not only when you're asleep but also when you're awake"

  4. #4

    Default

    I've got a really good credit rating and the credit card companies have kicked up their promos lately. Latest one was spend $1000 a month for two months and get 20% back. Should buy some more shiny.....
    What's the Frequency, Kenneth?

    432Hz

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by redraspberry View Post
    I've got a really good credit rating and the credit card companies have kicked up their promos lately. Latest one was spend $1000 a month for two months and get 20% back. Should buy some more shiny.....
    What card is that? My credit rating is well over 800 and I've not seen many offers lol.
    Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason. -Mark Twain

    The purpose of life is to matter, to be productive, to have it make some difference that you lived at all. -Leo Rosten

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miteysquirrel View Post
    What card is that? My credit rating is well over 800 and I've not seen many offers lol.
    US Bank Visa. I have another card with them that's 0% for 24 months.
    What's the Frequency, Kenneth?

    432Hz

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
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    13,215

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    I trust spidey-sense far more than any formal education I have had, Silverone.
    Like yourself, the more this sense tells me the establishment narrative is not what is being presented, the more my concern grows.

    "Gut feelings or intuitions come from patterns we've identified in our past experiences. Your subconscious mind continuously processes information that you are not consciously aware of, not only when you're asleep but also when you're awake"
    Shades of Dr. Maxwell Maltz (Psycho-Cybernetics). You subconscious is a "servo-mechanism" that processes data and circumstance to deliver (sometimes when you least expect it) information to make you successful in reaching your goal....a goal that must be commensurate with your self-image. Nice basic model for how we operate (if we are rational).
    Who are the righteous? ....Markpti

    What value did Burisma think to gain by hiring Hunter Biden as a Board member vs ALL other choices?

    Those who cannot articulate the other argument do not fully understand their own argument.

    "Much can be done by wise legislation and by resolute enforcement of the law. But still much more must be done
    by steady training of the individual - in conscience and character...." .......T. Roosevelt

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Miteysquirrel View Post
    What card is that? My credit rating is well over 800 and I've not seen many offers lol.
    Is that $400 max?
    Is there a fee for card?
    I assume the 0% one for 24 months does not include cash advances but must be vendor purchases.
    I am sure just in US, so asking out of curiosity. Usually similar type deals, maybe not quite as good, up here.

    I used to go for these various deals, but for some reason just could not bother after a while, even though free money for minimal work should be a good incentive.
    Very unlike me. Must just have got fat and lazy.

  9. #9

    Default

    Car loans and credit card debt is trouble for banks. Repo of cars is way up. C.C.'s are being used to make ends meet (for now) and how long can that continue? No problem banks are too big to fail (again). Just need more bail out money from heaven and everything will be fine. Government debt payments are about to be the largest use of tax revenue and going to get bigger as debt rolls over to new bonds at higher rates.
    Do your own due diligence

    I stand united with my friends & family in Canada who seek freedom.

  10. #10

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    Is that $400 max?
    Is there a fee for card?
    I assume the 0% one for 24 months does not include cash advances but must be vendor purchases.
    I am sure just in US, so asking out of curiosity. Usually similar type deals, maybe not quite as good, up here.

    I used to go for these various deals, but for some reason just could not bother after a while, even though free money for minimal work should be a good incentive.
    Very unlike me. Must just have got fat and lazy.
    It's with an existing card I have. No annual fee and on purchases. After digging it out of the garbage and reading the fine print is was an extra 20% points bonus up to $20 cash back on $2100 in purchases on top of the 3% points on any purchase normally.

    The 0% is for purchases, but financial products can be included as purchases, say 1 year notes.
    What's the Frequency, Kenneth?

    432Hz

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