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Thread: There actually is a bullish case for silver

  1. #11

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    PM and mining stocks are in the beginning of a bull market, IMHO. Betting against this could leave you on the wrong side of things long term. M&A is starting up once again in mining stocks that that tells me that the big money people know what's coming. Can you find cheaper PM in the near future? sure. But don't bet the house on seeing silver in the low teens for very long. I think the buying of options in a miner that someone did will be a much better guess at seeing a profit. Mining stocks have all made decent moves this past week. More to come? The only thing working against this is the end of year selling often done to take a loss (or profit) by investors before the year end. That should kick in in the next few weeks, but that's just a tax strategy and short term.
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  2. #12
    Join Date
    May 2013
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    Just a thought here.....The way the market has been second half of this year,,,As far as tax selling goes,,, There may very well be an awful lot of short covering (profits, losses) to close out as well as liquidating of long positions. Year end Market could be somewhat stabilized by this effect, and just trend along current market forces.

    Ag guy
    live for today, admit your faults, do the right thing (even if you don't want to) & trust God!
    This life is the training of the soul for the life to come. (accept that we live in a fallen world)
    Whether you know it or not, you are a spiritual eternal being! Ag guy

  3. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by LongDonSilver View Post
    PM and mining stocks are in the beginning of a bull market, IMHO. Betting against this could leave you on the wrong side of things long term.
    I know you are not trying to sell me anything but you just accidentally hit one of my trigger points for disregarding advice from "experts" in the news entertainment circles and general click baiters; appealing to my fears, in this case an appeal to my fear of missing out.

    There is an unlimited number of opportunities in the world, more than our meager amount of time and resources will ever let us tap. If you miss an opportunity go find yourself another one, life is full of them. Just about anybody that tries to cause you FOMO wants you to act on their time table, not yours.

  4. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by DBCooper View Post
    I know you are not trying to sell me anything but you just accidentally hit one of my trigger points for disregarding advice from "experts" in the news entertainment circles and general click baiters; appealing to my fears, in this case an appeal to my fear of missing out.

    There is an unlimited number of opportunities in the world, more than our meager amount of time and resources will ever let us tap. If you miss an opportunity go find yourself another one, life is full of them. Just about anybody that tries to cause you FOMO wants you to act on their time table, not yours.
    Yeah, not trying to sell you or anyone anything. But there's many signs that mining is in the beginning of a move. Yes, charts factor into this. Also, factors like the gold/silver ratio is dropping, plus GDX and GDXJ are showing signs of moving above their 18 week moving averages. Then there's the uptick in mergers or acquisitions have been announced or have taken place too. To me (I'm not an expert) that tells me that the big boys are seeking sources of PM for their own needs and that happens when they think prices of juniors are about to get more expensive.

    But I also think that there's more pain to happen for the country and general stock market in the next 12 months. Just how much that effects mining shares is something I'm worried about and then there's the useless IRS tax code that makes having investments a game of playing this rule against that rule instead of just investing.

    In the meantime, I'm buying and selling mining companies that have positive news. What you do is surely up to you. If you are waiting for some chart to tell you it's time to buy, fine. I've just been trying to exceed bank interest with my investments in a down year and while waiting for the "going to the moon" chart signal that's been talked about for quite a few years. So far, I've managed to have a decent return overall for 2022. Sometimes I'm way early with an investment, but I don't hold losers either. I don't try to wait for "the trend is your friend" type of investing. I also don't do options all that often and so I've missed many high returns there too. I'm old and I'm more defensive than someone that's 25 or 30 years old. As always do you own due diligence.
    American Legion Preamble: https://www.legion.org/preamble

  5. #15
    Join Date
    Nov 2017
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongDonSilver View Post
    Yeah, not trying to sell you or anyone anything. But there's many signs that mining is in the beginning of a move. Yes, charts factor into this. Also, factors like the gold/silver ratio is dropping, plus GDX and GDXJ are showing signs of moving above their 18 week moving averages. Then there's the uptick in mergers or acquisitions have been announced or have taken place too. To me (I'm not an expert) that tells me that the big boys are seeking sources of PM for their own needs and that happens when they think prices of juniors are about to get more expensive.

    But I also think that there's more pain to happen for the country and general stock market in the next 12 months. Just how much that effects mining shares is something I'm worried about and then there's the useless IRS tax code that makes having investments a game of playing this rule against that rule instead of just investing.

    In the meantime, I'm buying and selling mining companies that have positive news. What you do is surely up to you. If you are waiting for some chart to tell you it's time to buy, fine. I've just been trying to exceed bank interest with my investments in a down year and while waiting for the "going to the moon" chart signal that's been talked about for quite a few years. So far, I've managed to have a decent return overall for 2022. Sometimes I'm way early with an investment, but I don't hold losers either. I don't try to wait for "the trend is your friend" type of investing. I also don't do options all that often and so I've missed many high returns there too. I'm old and I'm more defensive than someone that's 25 or 30 years old. As always do you own due diligence.


    The gold miners are well under their two hundred day moving average and are still over 35% below where they were back in August 2020. I have been enjoying buying at these low prices the past six months. The HUI soared 1,664% between 2001 and 2011, and it may do very well again.

  6. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by DBCooper View Post
    I know you are not trying to sell me anything but you just accidentally hit one of my trigger points for disregarding advice from "experts" in the news entertainment circles and general click baiters; appealing to my fears, in this case an appeal to my fear of missing out. ...
    Whenever I get that tinge, I remind myself that it is better to miss a good deal than it is to make a bad one.
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  7. #17

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    GDXJ was $28.71 (Oct 17, 2022), yesterday GDXJ was $33.68 High for the past year $51.92, low $25.80
    Last edited by LongDonSilver; 11-17-2022 at 04:38 AM.
    American Legion Preamble: https://www.legion.org/preamble

  8. #18
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    1,491

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    HAVE A WONDERFUL THANKSGIVING EVERYONE...!! Enjoy your loved ones...! OH....and watch that waist line.......

    Ag guy
    live for today, admit your faults, do the right thing (even if you don't want to) & trust God!
    This life is the training of the soul for the life to come. (accept that we live in a fallen world)
    Whether you know it or not, you are a spiritual eternal being! Ag guy

  9. #19

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    Gobble gobble... silver squabble causing trouble. Forget it all and buy a bauble.
    "Compulsory altruism is none too altruistic." - me

    "All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across." -- Julian Simon

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