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Thread: A Silver COT Question

  1. #1

    Default A Silver COT Question

    I check out the Silver COT report from time to time. Lately, it's been a lot closer to net long than I can remember seeing it in times past. What does everyone make of it? (if anything) Also, would there be any other tools available to look at that might give some addition insight?

  2. #2

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    Never paid attention to any of that stuff. I remember seeing the Harvey Organ thread back in 2010, he was constantly saying how the bankers would smack down the price of silver/gold, whatever. I just look at price of copper.

  3. #3

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    Cool avatar BTW what is that? A historical building of some significance?

  4. #4

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    "Cool avatar BTW what is that? A historical building of some significance?" It's a church building in the Dallas area; originally built in 1859.

  5. #5

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    Wheatland Methodist It looks like snow on the roof, a rare thing for Dallas. It looks very similar to an old church in my area. Not nearly as old but likely sees way more vehicle traffic, that and they put the city dump a block away.
    Last edited by and4rik; 09-27-2022 at 06:30 PM.

  6. #6

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    When you look at the COT reports, are you looking at the commercials? Or the other side? Or both?
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  7. #7

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    "When you look at the COT reports, are you looking at the commercials? Or the other side? Or both?" I focus in on the commercials. Never seen them net long but very close of late.

  8. #8

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    It has been suggested to me that the commercials are the more reliable indicator in most cases. I have not been able to disprove that assertion.

    It is also my opinion that silver spot is low right now, which would agree with your reading of the COT. I did not read the COT myself recently.

    My opinion of the retail price on certain silver products is somewhat different, due to the unusually large premiums that the market seems to now command.

    In general, I am bullish on silver at this time, for medium & long term investment. Short term seems to be a bit more of a roll of the dice lately. The day traders certainly have had some room to play.

    These are just my personal whims. DYODD. I'm a dyed in the wool silver bug, so confirmation bias is always a risk with me.
    Last edited by SilverPalm; 09-27-2022 at 10:03 PM.
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  9. #9

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    "It is also my opinion that silver spot is low right now, which would agree with your reading of the COT."

    I agree that the spot price appears to be a bit low at the moment. Wish I could get more of a handle what's driving spot.

    In regards to the premiums, what do you think might be driving that? Low supply? High demand? Distribution issues? To me, that's the crazy part of it.

  10. #10

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    The high premiums are a dealer scam. Take a look around and do you see pervasive supply chain issues? Online dealers have any silver round you could want, in quantity. My LCS is always out of gold eagles but I only go there a few times a year, I'm sure there are weeks when tubes just sit there. In my opinion, dealers feel they can make more money with ultra high premiums selling to fewer new blood customers, than the spot plus 3$ that eagles used to go for. If they need the money fast then they can lower premiums on a select item. Not really a supply and demand issue, another poster here called it "charging what the market will bear, whatever that means.
    Last edited by and4rik; 09-28-2022 at 01:55 PM.

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