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Thread: $18.38

  1. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by shades View Post
    With practically identical rise in silver and gold, looks like dollar just got weaker.
    It doesn't work like that. I mean if you but that argument then you have to buy the argument that the dollar gets stronger when silver goes down.

  2. #22

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    High C. That Kiyosaki is a fellow to my heart, NO ETFs, because they make PMs so volatile and prevent PM prices to find their real market value.

    Golditiki2+++

  3. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by shades View Post
    With practically identical rise in silver and gold, looks like dollar just got weaker.
    The effect of a fluctuating USD strength can be seen here https://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

    As far as I know there isn't a historical view of the data though.

  4. #24
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    On a short term basis silver generally reacts inversely to the dollar, however the dollar as expressed by DXY is only it's relation to a basket of other currencies., while silver responds to a multitude of market forces. SO over the log term (50 years) DXY may rise 100% or drop 50% and that's about it while the dollar it's self may only have 2% of it's purchasing power for real goods and services over the same time period. Therefor a dollar silver ratio makes no sense "long term". for instance 1n 1976 DXY was around 106 while silver was$4.00 Right now the dollar as expressed as DXY is down 5% since 1976 while silver is up 625%.
    Conclusion; value of dollar to other failing currencies does not accurately represent dollars needed to buy a "T" bone steak.
    Ag guy
    Last edited by Ag guy; 04-09-2023 at 08:00 AM.
    live for today, admit your faults, do the right thing (even if you don't want to) & trust God!
    This life is the training of the soul for the life to come. (accept that we live in a fallen world)
    Whether you know it or not, you are a spiritual eternal being! Ag guy

  5. #25

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    No, I meant that when you see gold and silver taking identical tracking, that indicates that dollar strength is changing, rather than metals strength changing. Years ago, I posted here the dollar tracks along with gold and silver tracks that all matched exactly. Simple collative charts. The recent identical pm trackong showed the dollar getting weaker.

  6. #26

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    Quote Originally Posted by shades View Post
    No, I meant that when you see gold and silver taking identical tracking, that indicates that dollar strength is changing, rather than metals strength changing. Years ago, I posted here the dollar tracks along with gold and silver tracks that all matched exactly. Simple collative charts. The recent identical pm trackong showed the dollar getting weaker.
    yes, and perhaps it is Because they have 'Created' TOO MANY DOLLARS
    Both Digital and printed? Maybe? Perhaps?
    x3

  7. #27

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    i just don't get it why everybody stares at the value of PMs in dollars or other fiat.

    1 kilo or oz of gold / silver stays one kilo / oz, its weight is not changing, it is the unit which expresses its "price" that changed !!!.
    It is obvious that in 2000, when one gram of gold was worth 10 euros, and now in 2023 AD 58, the eurovalue went down, not gold up. the same for the dollar.

    it means the euro is merely 17 pct of its year 2000 purchasing value For the dollar they say 13 pct. ( i haven't checked) , anyway we are approaching VALUE from the wrong angle.

    Golditiki2+++

  8. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by DBCooper View Post
    It doesn't work like that. I mean if you but that argument then you have to buy the argument that the dollar gets stronger when silver goes down.
    It's been my observation that currency, in this case the USD, and gold/silver do tend to move in inverse relationships. When one goes up, the other generally tends to go down. Over long time frames, this seems true. Over short time frames, there is sometimes disconnection. A look back at the value of gold/silver to other material goods will give you a more rounded perspective. When I say a long time frame, I am talking about 100 years. If we look back thousands of years, the advent of modern production methods skews the relative values of goods & services to the point where valid comparisons become more difficult.

    The denarius was a silver coin, roughly the size of an American Dime. I think that the Bible stated it's value as a quart of wheat or 3 quarts of barley. It was also said to be the pay for a day's labor. There was a time when a dime would buy a day's labor in the US, but that is far from the case now, even if we account for reductions in the value of the USD.

    A silver dime has a melt value of a little under $2 in today's world. The price of wheat moves around a lot, but $400/ton seems like a common round number these days according to this source - https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=wheat $400/2000lbs = $0.2/lb According to these guys -https://foodstoragemadeeasy.net/2011/03/10/10-cans-and-5-gallon-buckets-how-much-can-they-hold/ 5 gallons of wheat weighs about 37 pounds. There are 20 quarts in 5 gallons. Therefore 37/20 = nearly 2 pounds per quart. That means $0.40 per quart of wheat in round numbers in today's world.

    With a silver dime being worth nearly $2, & wheat at $0.40 per quart, you can now get about 5 quarts of wheat for the silver in a denarius. A day laborer in my area costs about $100 + lunch, which I'll round to $100. Therefore, labor is now worth 50x more & wheat is 1/5 the price compared to the prices of antiquity. That is how much the labor to commodity value ratio has skewed over the years.

    A look at a 100 year chart for gold vs. USD will show a rise at an increasing rate, but the Bretton Woods years erased market discovery from 1933-1971. Before that, gold was money, so it's price was fixed in terms of USD. From 1971-74 the price went from $35 fixed to about $180. Then Ford allowed Americans to buy it again, & the price dropped to around $115 by 1976. We then saw it go to about $675 in 1980, then drop back to the low $260's in 1999-2000. 20 years later, we see the price flirting with $2k. The last quarter century certainly has been a golden era for gold bulls.

    https://www.sportscarmarket.com/prof...-custom-pickup According to these guys, in 1970, a Chevy pick up cost about $2,700. In my area, a base line pick up today is more like $40k. That's roughly 15 times the price. Gas was $0.36/gal in 1970. Today it's about 10 times that. Bread was $0.25 in 1970. Minimum wage was $1.60.

    People who saved USD in the last 50 years saw significant declines in purchasing power. People who saved gold, did far better. For me, gold, & to a slightly lesser extent silver, is a well chosen benchmark around which all other values rise & fall. This includes the values of currencies when market discovery pricing is allowed to exist.

    https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/his...100-year-chart
    https://www.titlemax.com/discovery-c...rough-history/
    Last edited by SilverPalm; 04-10-2023 at 07:18 AM.
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  9. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by SilverPalm View Post
    It's been my observation that currency, in this case the USD, and gold/silver do tend to move in inverse relationships. When one goes up, the other generally tends to go down. Over long time frames, this seems true. Over short time frames, there is sometimes disconnection. A look back at the value of gold/silver to other material goods will give you a more rounded perspective. When I say a long time frame, I am talking about 100 years. If we look back thousands of years, the advent of modern production methods skews the relative values of goods & services to the point where valid comparisons become more difficult.

    The denarius was a silver coin, roughly the size of an American Dime. I think that the Bible stated it's value as a quart of wheat or 3 quarts of barley. It was also said to be the pay for a day's labor. There was a time when a dime would buy a day's labor in the US, but that is far from the case now, even if we account for reductions in the value of the USD.

    A silver dime has a melt value of a little under $2 in today's world. The price of wheat moves around a lot, but $400/ton seems like a common round number these days according to this source - https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=wheat $400/2000lbs = $0.2/lb According to these guys -https://foodstoragemadeeasy.net/2011/03/10/10-cans-and-5-gallon-buckets-how-much-can-they-hold/ 5 gallons of wheat weighs about 37 pounds. There are 20 quarts in 5 gallons. Therefore 37/20 = nearly 2 pounds per quart. That means $0.40 per quart of wheat in round numbers in today's world.

    With a silver dime being worth nearly $2, & wheat at $0.40 per quart, you can now get about 5 quarts of wheat for the silver in a denarius. A day laborer in my area costs about $100 + lunch, which I'll round to $100. Therefore, labor is now worth 50x more & wheat is 1/5 the price compared to the prices of antiquity. That is how much the labor to commodity value ratio has skewed over the years.

    A look at a 100 year chart for gold vs. USD will show a rise at an increasing rate, but the Bretton Woods years erased market discovery from 1933-1971. Before that, gold was money, so it's price was fixed in terms of USD. From 1971-74 the price went from $35 fixed to about $180. Then Ford allowed Americans to buy it again, & the price dropped to around $115 by 1976. We then saw it go to about $675 in 1980, then drop back to the low $260's in 1999-2000. 20 years later, we see the price flirting with $2k. The last quarter century certainly has been a golden era for gold bulls.

    https://www.sportscarmarket.com/prof...-custom-pickup According to these guys, in 1970, a Chevy pick up cost about $2,700. In my area, a base line pick up today is more like $40k. That's roughly 15 times the price. Gas was $0.36/gal in 1970. Today it's about 10 times that. Bread was $0.25 in 1970. Minimum wage was $1.60.

    People who saved USD in the last 50 years saw significant declines in purchasing power. People who saved gold, did far better. For me, gold, & to a slightly lesser extent silver, is a well chosen benchmark around which all other values rise & fall. This includes the values of currencies when market discovery pricing is allowed to exist.

    https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/his...100-year-chart
    I think you would have to factor in the efficiency of the wheat production today as compared to ancient Rome. I the fact of the matter is that we have far more diligent and effective slave labor in the form of oil and coal and nuclear. If our benign overlords are successful in shutting down our access and use of cheap power, it is likely the cost of the quart of wheat will surpass the dime silver cost.
    Now there's no more oak oppression
    They passed a noble law
    Now the trees are all kept equal
    By hatchet, axe and saw.

    I will not comply.

    The Tea Party... quietly plotting to take over the world,
    and leave you the hell alone!

  10. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by t00nces2 View Post
    I think you would have to factor in the efficiency of the wheat production today as compared to ancient Rome. I the fact of the matter is that we have far more diligent and effective slave labor in the form of oil and coal and nuclear. If our benign overlords are successful in shutting down our access and use of cheap power, it is likely the cost of the quart of wheat will surpass the dime silver cost.
    Yes, that was one of my basic premises, which I stated as - " If we look back thousands of years, the advent of modern production methods skews the relative values of goods & services to the point where valid comparisons become more difficult."
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

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