Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 11 to 20 of 20

Thread: The end of globalization and US dominance?

  1. #11

    Default All things tend to revert to the mean

    Those that have been ruling the roost for a very long time tend not to like it. ( wars both economic and real)

    The 'West and its affiliates' lets call them US, Canada all European nations. Japan, Australia and NZ have slowly been losing their hold on the
    economic dominance of the world that they have had for the past 125 years or so.

    If you measure world economic dominance by being over 50% of world GDP ( as inaccurate as this may be it is a close enough proxy)

    The " West ' first achieved this in the early 1900`s and have maintained it until this day.

    It currently stands at 54% ( depends how you measure it but going by nominal GDP in US $)
    It has been fairly consistently in the 70 to 75% area for the last 75 years of the last century but is now falling significantly and quickly.


    If the trend continues it will fall below the 50% in the next few years. A sudden drop in the US $ will also do the trick as roughly 45% of 'West" GDP is US.

    Wonder if this is playing on the minds of the current world order. ( seems like a lot of tariffs/sanctions, demonizing/sensationalizing/propagandizing, monetary weaponization and plain old war, going on in last 20 years, by the ' West '


    " He who pays the piper calls the tune" Understandable why one would want to stay being the one with the most to offer the piper, as it is always nice to call the tune, especially if that has always been the way in your lifetime.

  2. #12

    Default

    Roubini (Dr. Doom) says the dollar will lose world reserve status over the next 10 years:

    https://news.google.com/articles/CBM...S&ceid=US%3Aen

    (Link redirects to the Financial Times)
    A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step. -Lao Tzu

  3. #13

    Default

    Ray Dalio produced this video almost a year ago. It's accessible for the lay person:

    A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step. -Lao Tzu

  4. #14

    Default

    The birth rate is plunging. Bad news for the status quo. Bad news for modern civilization. What's that do to service economies? Though if money is no object you'll be able to buy your safety/status quo. While the rest of us will have to be satisfied with being extorted by the local gang enforcement group (inclusive, equitable and all).
    What's the Frequency, Kenneth?

    432Hz

  5. #15

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by PM Bug View Post
    Ray Dalio produced this video almost a year ago. It's accessible for the lay person:

    Excellent video...half watching at work, need to see it again later, thx for posting it.
    Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason. -Mark Twain

    The purpose of life is to matter, to be productive, to have it make some difference that you lived at all. -Leo Rosten

  6. #16
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Posts
    4,129

    Default

    I have read analysis about that. They say that actually it is not the
    end of globalization .....but it is re-globalization without China.

    No single country can match the manufacturing power of China. However,
    much manufacturing power is going now to countries like India, Vietnam etc

  7. #17
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Posts
    4,129

    Default

    Balance sheet recession....ie too much debt.

    Japan passed through, that roughly from 1990's to 2020's.
    Now Japan is nicely recovering.

    The same thing happens now to China. Too much debt. People
    and institutions have to save to pay the debt. That means less
    money is available for consumption and investments is the economy
    is slowing down.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ba...n-coming-china

  8. #18

    Default

    An interesting bit of perspective on US dominance -

    https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/i...?itok=prx99wiE
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  9. #19

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SilverPalm View Post
    An interesting bit of perspective on US dominance -

    https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/i...?itok=prx99wiE

    Interesting. I wonder how many shares of the US companies are owned externally. I wonder also what allegiance these companies have to the US as the bulk of the capitalization is probably multinational.

  10. #20
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    13,311

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    Interesting. I wonder how many shares of the US companies are owned externally. I wonder also what allegiance these companies have to the US as the bulk of the capitalization is probably multinational.
    There was a time when this legitimate concern on your part was not necessary as the interests in a strong American government and culture was a part of the "owners" psychology. American hubris and imperialism made the American Pax more and too diffuse.

    Loss of faith in the altruistic American Pax role (which was likely always an illusion, anyway) and the fostership of credit/debt to hype wealth over stability signed the death knell.
    Who are the righteous? ....Markpti

    What value did Burisma think to gain by hiring Hunter Biden as a Board member vs ALL other choices?

    Those who cannot articulate the other argument do not fully understand their own argument.

    "Much can be done by wise legislation and by resolute enforcement of the law. But still much more must be done
    by steady training of the individual - in conscience and character...." .......T. Roosevelt

Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •