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Thread: The Recession..

  1. #41

    Question

    Never mind.. Everything is GREAT (Again)
    (I think I might be getting whiplash) https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-...=mw_latestnews
    x3

  2. #42

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by silverone View Post
    Never mind.. Everything is GREAT (Again)
    (I think I might be getting whiplash) https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-...=mw_latestnews
    Here is one show stopper that needs to be corrected in a big way.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...er%20of%201950.

    Also, it takes a while for LT rate increases to work, but not as long for increases in ST rates. It was not until the beginning of this year that the Fed moved off 0 FFR and mid year moved off 1%, not exactly earth shaking moves , and June was not that long ago.

    I am just old school, when the level of debt increases and the servicing costs of that debt, also, and the economy`s total output is flat or negative, then I do not believe good things are going to happen.

    The equity market may hope they will, and maybe they will, but it would be nice to see some real sustainable evidence of that. Then again I never was much of an equity guy, my timing was never the best. ( need to be in government and/or the ' club 'to get the good timing ha ha)

  3. #43

    Exclamation

    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    Here is one show stopper that needs to be corrected in a big way.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...er%20of%201950.

    Also, it takes a while for LT rate increases to work, but not as long for increases in ST rates. It was not until the beginning of this year that the Fed moved off 0 FFR and mid year moved off 1%, not exactly earth shaking moves , and June was not that long ago.

    I am just old school, when the level of debt increases and the servicing costs of that debt, also, and the economy`s total output is flat or negative, then I do not believe good things are going to happen.

    The equity market may hope they will, and maybe they will, but it would be nice to see some real sustainable evidence of that. Then again I never was much of an equity guy, my timing was never the best. ( need to be in government and/or the ' club 'to get the good timing ha ha)
    Thanks brutus.. I Really Find the Entire 'situation' to be Surreal at this point
    (I Actually don't even bring up my opinion anymore) people will Believe whatever they will for whatever reason.
    THIS Article is Interesting if only for the Comments at the very bottom of the page>>> https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...ranny-and-ruin
    x3

  4. #44

    Default FED balance sheet runoff.

    well they are supposed to accelerate this, after 3 months...about 100B reduction....even if they do, the curve they propose would take years to run down 2026? The balance sheet NET is roughly where it was in January of this year.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by ruthenium; 09-10-2022 at 12:31 PM. Reason: FED balance sheet runoff.

  5. #45

    Default

    Now if one has money to spend it is a golden period. Inflation? Electricity and gas yes, but otherwise? Minus 25 pct for two fine adjustable armchairs and footstools. Not a cat in the shop. These rebates are signs of the industrial situation. Too much goods for a population which is outspent. The costly energy will mend tha overproduction, but maybe demand will plunge faster.

    I do not know, but think we are in for some difficult months to come. September is in many european countries a back to work month and if there is little demand next month october is when decisions ( budgets etc. ) are made, they might be excruciating.

    Golditiki2+++

  6. #46

    Default

    Is anyone preparing for a depression?
    American Legion Preamble: https://www.legion.org/preamble

  7. #47

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by LongDonSilver View Post
    Is anyone preparing for a depression?
    Ive been preparing since 2006-7. Slowed down quite a bit but still looking to add to my gear.
    Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason. -Mark Twain

    The purpose of life is to matter, to be productive, to have it make some difference that you lived at all. -Leo Rosten

  8. #48

    Default

    It was a bit of a tough day in the markets today. The Dow & SP were down roughly 4%. Nasdaq was down just over 5%. Gold & silver were down roughly a percent. DXY was up about a point & a half.

    CPI of 8+ is being blamed by the financial media.
    Last edited by SilverPalm; 09-13-2022 at 06:11 PM.
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  9. #49

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SilverPalm View Post
    It was a bit of a tough day in the markets today. The Dow & SP were down roughly 4%. Nasdaq was down just over 5%. Gold & silver were down roughly a percent. DXY was up about a point & a half.

    CPI of 8+ is being blamed by the financial media.
    Not even a dead cat bounce today! Still in the red.
    Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason. -Mark Twain

    The purpose of life is to matter, to be productive, to have it make some difference that you lived at all. -Leo Rosten

  10. #50

    Default

    Except for a small up market for the Dow it's all more red ink for the USA today. That includes PM. Europe is seeing small S.M. gains which I find interesting since Germany hasn't figured out how to make electricity from political hot air. I heard that VW is stockpiling glass for their cars since the glass industry may soon need to shutdown due to lack of electric juice.
    American Legion Preamble: https://www.legion.org/preamble

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