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Thread: The Recession..

  1. #111

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  5. #115

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by silverone View Post
    .

    Will get interesting if no deal reached by next Friday. Treasury operating balance shrank by 10,991 million on Thursday. It is down to 57,341 million as of end of day May 18th.

    I find it hard to believe that a deal will not be done by Friday, or at worst, shortly after ( perhaps a temporary one, perhaps more permanent) but it is always possible it will not.
    I do not see any political advantage for either side if it is not. The last few weeks and currently is just theatre in my opinion.

    Here is a brief summary of a report from TD Economics dated May 18th

    Highlights
    Time is running out for Congress to raise the debt ceiling and prevent the U.S. government from defaulting on its obligations.
    The impact of a prolonged debt ceiling standoff could be greater today than in the past, especially considering the economy is operating in the later stages of the cycle, where financial vulnerabilities are far higher.
    Our baseline is that a deal will get done, but the longer the stalemate persists, the greater the odds that financial markets and the economy get burned.
    Chart 1 shows the prior peaks in credit default swaps for U.S. Treasuries in basis points for the years 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2019, and 2023. It shows 2023 is much higher than all other time periods.
    Congress is running out of time to raise the debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has stated that the government is estimated to be unable to pay its bills by early June, and potentially as early as June 1st (the X-date). More recently, the Congressional Budget Office backed up Yellen’s warning with similar guidance . While it seems inconceivable that the government would voluntarily allow that to happen, investors are hedging against this risk. Insurance against government default has soared to its highest level on record, more than doubling that witnessed during the infamous 2011 U.S. debt downgrade (Chart 1). Given risks already present within the economy, we believe that the current debt standoff is a much larger threat. Although this has yet to bleed into broader financial markets – with equity, credit, and currency markets hoping for resolution - politicians are playing with fire. The longer the standoff persists, the greater the risk that markets and the economy get burned.

  6. #116

    Exclamation

    the Entire Thing is a Joke..
    We ALL Know those A$$holes are going to RAISE the 'Limit'
    Mean while the Nation continues to be FLOODED with people from Mexico
    and it is All part of THEIR plan
    x3

  7. #117

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by silverone View Post
    the Entire Thing is a Joke..
    We ALL Know those A$$holes are going to RAISE the 'Limit'
    Mean while the Nation continues to be FLOODED with people from Mexico
    and it is All part of THEIR plan
    exactamento

  8. #118

    Default

    Cocksure Geezer will whip out the 14th
    1835 Andrew Jackson had US debt at ZERO $0
    175 YEARS later .......
    2008 Owebama started at $10 TRILLION, left 2016 at $20 TRILLION
    So from 2008 - 2021 (13 years) added $20 TRILLION

    https://youtu.be/1kuTG19Cu_Q

  9. #119

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by silverone View Post
    the Entire Thing is a Joke..
    We ALL Know those A$$holes are going to RAISE the 'Limit'
    Mean while the Nation continues to be FLOODED with people from Mexico
    and it is All part of THEIR plan
    I agree and so does this guy on Heresy Financial.

    This is a great 15 minute video on a lot of concepts like QE and TGA ( Treasury General Account - thing I keep harping on) and Yield Curve Control etc.
    He talks in simple layman language with examples.

    I have always believed that all governments will just keep on borrowing and when their interest costs become too high to service they will implement yield curve controls, much like Japan has.
    We are just simply some years behind Japan in most Central bank procedures and government debt thresholds.

    Then the whole current monetary system will collapse together. When that will be is the question.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AujQYyvRDSc

  10. #120

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