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Thread: Copper supply surplus, what this means for silver

  1. #1

    Default Copper supply surplus, what this means for silver

    https://www.mining.com/web/global-co...year-says-rbc/

    The normalization of existing copper supply and elevated prices offer incentives to increase production, RBC said.
    Looking for the same to happen in silver, rate hikes and supply chain normalization should continue. Although a bear market for commodities seems unlikely. At the current spot price of 22.00$ I am expecting a 15% low and high from this point, making an 18$ low going into 2023 and a 25$ high onward. Of course a significant relaxation of premiums would make a more exaggerated price drop for physical, approximately 30% lower for 2023, considering the price of generic 1 oz is currently over 26$
    Last edited by and4rik; 06-05-2022 at 10:58 PM.

  2. #2

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    Quote Originally Posted by and4rik View Post
    https://www.mining.com/web/global-co...year-says-rbc/


    Looking for the same to happen in silver, rate hikes and supply chain normalization should continue. Although a bear market for commodities seems unlikely.
    but new Cu supply come from new mines that subject to higher mining and production cost due to $100+ oil and labor. Hard to imagine < 4.00/lb copper when inflation hitting everyone.

  3. #3

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    Its also hard to imagine another big leg up for commodities bull. Range bound +/-15% from here, aside special circumstances

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by and4rik View Post
    Its also hard to imagine another big leg up for commodities bull. Range bound +/-15% from here, aside special circumstances
    ya, pending recession likely cap the upside for next 12-18 mths for most industrial metals.

  5. #5

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    The cure for high prices is high prices.

    The cure for low prices is low prices.

    And so the precious metal cycle goes.

    But it is always marching higher as the ore grades deplete...
    Legal Disclaimer: I am not a doctor, nor do I play one on TV.

    "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
    A variant of this has also been attributed to physicist Niels Bohr, and others.

    "Tis against some menís principle to pay interest, and seems against othersí interest to pay the principal." -- Benjamin Franklin

    The School of Hard Knocks is where you get the lesson after you fail the test.

    Book title: "The Best Way to Rob a Bank Is to Own One"

  6. #6
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    For long term very patient investors, it doesn't matter what happens in the next two to three years. I have read several long articles which say that there will be an increasing and eventually huge demand for copper, gold, lithium, and other metals in the coming years. Cheaper short term prices are good for me as I stack towards the future.


    Quote Originally Posted by and4rik View Post
    https://www.mining.com/web/global-co...year-says-rbc/


    Looking for the same to happen in silver, rate hikes and supply chain normalization should continue. Although a bear market for commodities seems unlikely. At the current spot price of 22.00$ I am expecting a 15% low and high from this point, making an 18$ low going into 2023 and a 25$ high onward. Of course a significant relaxation of premiums would make a more exaggerated price drop for physical, approximately 30% lower for 2023, considering the price of generic 1 oz is currently over 26$

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by aberdeen View Post
    For long term very patient investors, it doesn't matter what happens in the next two to three years. I have read several long articles which say that there will be an increasing and eventually huge demand for copper, gold, lithium, and other metals in the coming years. Cheaper short term prices are good for me as I stack towards the future.
    I have read many like-minded writings, and the logic seems irrefutable and unassailable. It seems impossible that the price for lithium, uranium, and copper will not rise along with increased demand over the next decades. The "Green New Deal" is coming, in some form, whether you like it or not. Fossil fuels are, unarguably, a finite resource, and at some point, alternatives must be found and developed. The real question at hand is the matter of timing.
    "It's the lure of easy money - It's got a very strong appeal." - Glenn Frey (The Smuggler's Blues)

    "A wise and frugal government, which shall restrain men from injuring one another, shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned." - Thomas Jefferson

  8. #8

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    The continuing rise in gas prices could definitely keep metals to the upside near term. But there is that continuing nagging whisper of demand destruction from inflation. I see it more and more everyday, do we roll down the hill or take the cliff straight down and slam. Some sort of catalyst will need to take place for the freefall and crash at the bottom.

  9. #9

  10. #10

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    Copper pushing down to a one year low today. Close at $4.07. The Fed slowly tightening its balance sheet (several years) could cause commodities to see a drop in price. I am not seeing the crash many are saying is happening now. Mining will continue and prices will adjust accordingly.


    http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/co...cal_large.html
    Last edited by and4rik; 06-18-2022 at 01:18 AM.

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