Page 4 of 4 FirstFirst 1234
Results 31 to 33 of 33

Thread: What is YOUR Guess?

  1. #31

    Default

    Allot more has to happen before recession. Manufacturing hiring needs to slow down, it hasn't. Tech finally started slowing down for the first time since what .. 2001? Access to capital needs to dry up, it hasn't. Home HELOCS need to stop, they are still in full swing, advertising on actual TV for home projects and debt payoffs. CC needs to get maxed out, heck I could live off mine for a year if I wanted to.

    Government spending needs to pull back, local and state governments are beyond flush with budget surpluses. Everything being more expensive just brings more sales tax, etc.

    Government and health care are a large part of the economy thus .. it takes a while to slow down the U.S. economy, about a year, however we are maybe 6 months into a stock market downward cycle of pumps and dumps.

    Consumers are starting to pull back some? Not yet, they are spending more on food and gas, thus consumption or consumer spending hasn't pulled back at all, if anything, it's increasing, fueled by debt, maybe but so what's new on that front. Even if we have personal bankruptcies like we did back in 2008, no big thing, it's normal, and people will max out their home loans and CC first, it's the American way. With big home price increases, plenty of equity remains to be tapped. We still see the reverse mortgage commercials on TV.

    The interest rate will go up or remain elevated until a recession is declared, then the interest rate goes down, same as it always was, debt is rewarded with bankruptcy, savers and conservative life styles punished as usual because inflation destroys the value of any dollars you have lying around for a rainy day.

  2. #32

    Default

    Oh heck, their will be bailouts, when has their not been bailouts. It's the way. I only see reset if the currency collapses, not yet according to gold bugs.
    UBI is definitely coming as we continue to champion single household parenting. They won't used CBDC, they use a SNAP thing, like a credit card, they just keep loading it up on a monthly basis. Low income housing is big where I live, but it's the only way to keep homeless from becoming a problem. The government will just keep issuing more and more debt.

    What concerns me as a tipping point is the price of LNG, that's like double the heating costs in winter, combine that with filling your gas tank, then we might see some consumers pulling back on what appears as spending.

    my guess is reset plan must go through.
    I don't see more bailout would help this time.
    CBDC is set in motion. UBI would tied to some kind of CBDC.

  3. #33

    Default

    "Recession" by the 20% rule on stock price drop is here, and I'm a starting to buy again. Fun times (just way to much work). Guess I'm like the ant....
    “Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring class of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money.”Daniel Webster (1782-1852)

Page 4 of 4 FirstFirst 1234

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •