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Thread: How low can silver go?

  1. #21

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    Got just over 66 troy ounces ( 3/4 or so was 80% Canadian) for about $22 per troy ounce.
    "Compulsory altruism is none too altruistic." - me

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  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by windweaver77 View Post
    Got just over 66 troy ounces ( 3/4 or so was 80% Canadian) for about $22 per troy ounce.
    Nice score
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  3. #23

    Default Silver bear case. With a real fed balance sheet rundown to 4.5% on the US10Y

    I like to keep an open mind so I pulled up the weekly chart of silver for the past decade or so and a meaningful amount of time spent at a low would be a few weeks. Enough time to wonder about a price recovery. I also like to consider several economic scenarios...one falling to overshoot on the low side, the other more accommodative as the past panics have. Given the FED balance sheet and promises I think we can go to the 200W MA of $20. If liquidity really dries up then fail and go to 18.5. or even 16. That and below would be brief as I see it. Silver did this same plop in 2014.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/zhRCYZng/

    but I am all for the Green arrow case of a bounce to 23 along the way.

  4. #24

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    Chile has had more than their fair share of mine disruptions due to politics and Mexico is now getting into the act too. Also. if the POS does drop below the cost to produce for more than a brief period of time there will be shuttered mines all around the globe. With the cost to produce going up due to higher fuel costs, more expensive labor and government permitting costs, I doubt if silver will go below $20 for more than a short dip. The price of physical vs. paper shows that at present there's a large delta between the paper market and stuff you can hold in your hands. Some of that is the transportation cost from the mine to where it can be put it into retail hands, but if POS does go low, even for a short period of time, and premiums are lower than today, I hope we all have massive fiat hoards and we can all load up.
    Do your own due diligence

    I stand united with my friends & family in Canada who seek freedom.

  5. #25

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    Only 28% of silver comes from mining activities where silver is the primary source of revenue. The remaining 72% comes from projects where silver is a by-product of mining other metals, such as copper, lead and zinc.
    Legal Disclaimer: I am not a doctor, nor do I play one on TV.

    "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
    A variant of this has also been attributed to physicist Niels Bohr, and others.

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  6. #26

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    Doesn't matter, in recession people sell anything they have to in order to buy food, pay rent, pay mortgage, put gas in car, etc.

    We wait with dry powder until silver price crashes in recession. Cash is king if you like acquiring tangibles.

    It will be awhile yet, it's a long way down. If LNG stays up, or goes higher come winter, food prices will follow because LNG is also an input into food prices, not to mention heating homes, powering our green hybrid energy plants. Then panic will set in. Just think of how much it will cost to charge that EV up going forward. That's why personal solar arrays and battery banks in homes will be the next big thing, just a matter of time before it makes sense to start storing and harvesting your own. Still, you will need dollars to own the home in the first place.

    21 is not a bad price, but I would add at 15, but not at 21, not with premiums like they are. This is to good of a time to build 401k roth as the stock market crashes, the return way better than silver.

  7. #27

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    at this point of POS, premium increase will make up for future drop in spot price.

  8. #28

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    Yellowsnow, why do you think premiums will increase? Supply chain issues are nowhere near covid levels, is it a fabrication issue? As more supply is brought back to market from private sellers to LCS, I only see premiums to continue a slow drawn down. Many are not buying, myself included what they see as over inflated premiums.

  9. #29

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    I see more and more offers of silver with "reduced" premiums. So I believe that the supply of silver coming from the mints has begun to catch up to demand. Whether that means that demand is down or that mints are producing more I don't know. But silver could be as cheap as we can expect because of the events happening with crypto and the stock market that seem to be causing some increase interest in PM. So does that mean that this is the bottom, or just a shelf before one more drop in everything occurs? That's the million dollar question. I've been burnt too many times thinking this has to be bottom over the past year or so to call this the bottom. I'm waiting for signs that the next move is in process and I'll be happy if I can capture 85% of the next major up move. I think being in cash at the moment is the way to go even if inflation is nipping at your heels. I can't see trading gold for silver either.

    I'm not the only one seeing this: https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2...t-turmoil.html
    Do your own due diligence

    I stand united with my friends & family in Canada who seek freedom.

  10. #30

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    With an 18% premium on 10 oz generic bars and 32% on 1 oz maples silver will have to go dirt low before I resume purchase....BUT watching
    Current metals purchases are gold bullion/key dates Eagles and Maple; key date or variety/low mintage numismatic coins.
    Gold. The only money that matters. The only money that lasts.

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