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Thread: How low can silver go?

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Nov 2017
    Posts
    391

    Default How low can silver go?

    A good question indeed. Silver crashed 69% back in 2008, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if it went all the way down to twelve an ounce some time this summer. A more realistic low is fifteen, however.

  2. #2

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    However, Another Silly Question ,The miners are not going to work for nothing, somebody screwed this economy up big time. price of diesel fuel way up ,and equipment does not run on guesses.If silver goes as low as $15.00 I will sell the ranch and cash in my wife's 401k and go all balls out.My Left nut and Right nut, and Running gear all in at 15.00
    A Bird in the Hand is worth two in the Bush.

  3. #3

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    There's always a lot of silver mined for free, as a by-product of copper mining mainly. See Freeport-McMoran. Any pure silver miner has a cost that varies due to purity, labor, gas, etc. They can all sell today in the futures market locking in a $20 price at least for years of future production, and then it doesn't matter to them if the price temporarily goes down to whatever.

  4. #4

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    I hope it goes down to $7 an ounce, so that way premiums can be triple melt.
    "Compulsory altruism is none too altruistic." - me

    "All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across." -- Julian Simon

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by insidedealer View Post
    There's always a lot of silver mined for free, as a by-product of copper mining mainly. See Freeport-McMoran. Any pure silver miner has a cost that varies due to purity, labor, gas, etc. They can all sell today in the futures market locking in a $20 price at least for years of future production, and then it doesn't matter to them if the price temporarily goes down to whatever.
    Not meaning to be argumentative, but there are initial cost in removing the raw material from the earth. There is nothing 'free' in a mining operation.
    Last edited by Lawrence; 05-14-2022 at 08:49 AM.
    Stacking since the late 1970's

  6. #6
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    1,490

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    From low Feb 2020 of $11.63 to high of $30 feb 2021 there has been a 50% retracement in silver. add the fundamentals to that and I believe it's time to go long and hold.

    Ag guy
    live for today, admit your faults, do the right thing (even if you don't want to) & trust God!
    This life is the training of the soul for the life to come. (accept that we live in a fallen world)
    Whether you know it or not, you are a spiritual eternal being! Ag guy

  7. #7

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    If the stock market continues to fall there will be a lot of margin calls. Margin calls force traders to either come up with cash or sell investments to cover their losses. Selling anything they can causes selling in paper PM. So the drop in silver spot price (and other PM) all depends on COMEX traders trading paper silver in millions of ounces per day. All in no relationship with real silver demands. The availability of physical silver at spot price depends on miners and others willing to provide physical silver at that price. It appears that for the past 6 months or so the amount of physical silver available has been less than the market demands. I don't know anyone selling. Some miners are only selling enough to cover their costs and holding back silver waiting for a better price. Miners can not sell for years at any price. They have to place contracts and deliver at the end of the contract unless they put out a new contract. All this costs money. They will hedge the price for a period of time to control their short term market, but if POS drops so low as to not be productive they will shutter their mines. As in lay off employees and lock the doors. Hence, if you want physical silver today the premiums are high to make up for the too low POS. If you want physical today you either pay spot plus a bunch or sit on the sidelines. Some of us that want our cake and to be able to eat it too will look to paper silver to try to make a paper profit which can be later on converted into physical without eating the premiums. Keeping our cash flowing and not parking it at near zero interest. Money is made when PM drops. (DUST ETF) and money is made when it jumps (NUGT) and a flat market is a killer.

    IMHO, PM is going to follow the S.M. for maybe a few more weeks, or maybe the full summer, There may be some bounces along the way, but until the general market want safety, they may be false bounces. The flight to safety will kick in at some point and we will see a big move in both physical and in mining. The thing to remember is that the gold market, and even more the silver market, is tiny compared to the overall investment industry and large moves up and down are not long term. Thinking that silver (or gold) will hit new highs and stay there plus there will be world peace, pie in the sky forever and a day, is a pipe dream. Buy low sell high and don't sit on profits is the name of the game.
    Do your own due diligence

    I stand united with my friends & family in Canada who seek freedom.

  8. #8

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    I believe there might be some in the pond at $3 or $3.50, from when I was very young. Big Al Sr

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by LongDonSilver View Post
    If the stock market continues to fall there will be a lot of margin calls. Margin calls force traders to either come up with cash or sell investments to cover their losses. Selling anything they can causes selling in paper PM. So the drop in silver spot price (and other PM) all depends on COMEX traders trading paper silver in millions of ounces per day. All in no relationship with real silver demands. The availability of physical silver at spot price depends on miners and others willing to provide physical silver at that price. It appears that for the past 6 months or so the amount of physical silver available has been less than the market demands. I don't know anyone selling. Some miners are only selling enough to cover their costs and holding back silver waiting for a better price. Miners can not sell for years at any price. They have to place contracts and deliver at the end of the contract unless they put out a new contract. All this costs money. They will hedge the price for a period of time to control their short term market, but if POS drops so low as to not be productive they will shutter their mines. As in lay off employees and lock the doors. Hence, if you want physical silver today the premiums are high to make up for the too low POS. If you want physical today you either pay spot plus a bunch or sit on the sidelines. Some of us that want our cake and to be able to eat it too will look to paper silver to try to make a paper profit which can be later on converted into physical without eating the premiums. Keeping our cash flowing and not parking it at near zero interest. Money is made when PM drops. (DUST ETF) and money is made when it jumps (NUGT) and a flat market is a killer.

    IMHO, PM is going to follow the S.M. for maybe a few more weeks, or maybe the full summer, There may be some bounces along the way, but until the general market want safety, they may be false bounces. The flight to safety will kick in at some point and we will see a big move in both physical and in mining. The thing to remember is that the gold market, and even more the silver market, is tiny compared to the overall investment industry and large moves up and down are not long term. Thinking that silver (or gold) will hit new highs and stay there plus there will be world peace, pie in the sky forever and a day, is a pipe dream. Buy low sell high and don't sit on profits is the name of the game.
    if you want physical silver today the premiums are high to make up for the too low POS. If you want physical today you either pay spot plus a bunch or sit on the sidelines. i looked for silver today and the best locally i could do was 19 x face on about $30 in junk quarters. i hated paying that much but it is what it is.

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by maxwellsilverhammer View Post
    if you want physical silver today the premiums are high to make up for the too low POS. If you want physical today you either pay spot plus a bunch or sit on the sidelines. i looked for silver today and the best locally i could do was 19 x face on about $30 in junk quarters. i hated paying that much but it is what it is.
    I just grabbed 88 ounces for 16.80 per troy ounce . I'll he making a video about it.

    It could be a steal or a rip off. It was in coin weight not asw. But are worst I got it for about $26 an ounce but my estimation.
    "Compulsory altruism is none too altruistic." - me

    "All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across." -- Julian Simon

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