Seen on the newsfeed this morning . . . sanctions on Russian aluminum could prompt big gains

[LeadHead]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...sts/ar-AAU7yCl

Not to wish bad things on the Ukrainians, but should Putin go to war with them, the resulting sanctions could cause aluminum prices to spike dramatically. Hopefully, things will de-escalate, nobody wants war (except maybe the Russians) but it's not looking good. Nevertheless, I'm definitely keeping a close eye on the scrap market.

[LeadHead]

Well, it looks like the sh*t is getting real.

Just an aside, but can anyone point to a case where sanctions actually caused a bad actor to change his ways? Maybe apartheid South Africa (depending on your viewpoint)?

[redraspberry]

Nickel is up!!!!!

Nickel futures rallied past $24,800 per tonne, the highest since May of 2011, as supply woes intensified amid aggravating tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine. Russia recognized the independence of Ukraine’s breakaway regions and ordered to send more troops to Luhansk and Donetsk, which triggered harsher Western sanctions and broad condemnation. Being a major producer of nickel, sanctions on Russian companies could lead to major supply disruptions and to further hikes in raw material prices. Meanwhile, analysts said Norilsk Nickel, who produces 7% of world output, was unlikely to be hit by sanctions that target minority shareholder Rusal because these were expected to hit shareholders with majority stake only. Finally, nickel inventories in LME-registered warehouses have dropped 69% since April to 83,328 tonnes as the demand from the stainless steel and battery sectors remains strong.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/nickel

[LeadHead]

And here we go . . . . now is the time for those "crippling" sanctions. Let's see what Sleepy Joe has up his sleeves. Whatever it is, I'll go out on a limb here and say it won't change Putin's mind or plans one iota. Outcomes here will depend on how many Russians end up in body bags. Go Ukraine!

[everything1]

I tend to think Putin signed his death warrant, only mad men kills their own blood. He has enough power already. Anonymous even said Russia is the target now.

Aluminum has become a problem. I'm hearing labor shortage, China did power cuts, magnesium was a problem as it utilized in manufacturer for a bit, old cast moldings, who knows. I don't know allot about it, but we do know it's been years in the making. I look at the quality of aluminum parts coming into our plant and it's dropped. I think eventually aluminum will be in abundance again.

Why is there an aluminum shortage 2021?
In November 2021, an explosion occurred at an aluminum factory in Yunnan province. This caused a complete stop in production for the 300K-ton-capacity factory and further exacerbated the supply shortage on the market. The U.S. is the world's largest importer of aluminum, and it also increased purchases this year.

[yellowsnow]

I tend to think Putin signed his death warrant, only mad men kills their own blood. He has enough power already. Anonymous even said Russia is the target now.

Aluminum has become a problem. I'm hearing labor shortage, China did power cuts, magnesium was a problem as it utilized in manufacturer for a bit, old cast moldings, who knows. I don't know allot about it, but we do know it's been years in the making. I look at the quality of aluminum parts coming into our plant and it's dropped. I think eventually aluminum will be in abundance again.

Why is there an aluminum shortage 2021?
In November 2021, an explosion occurred at an aluminum factory in Yunnan province. This caused a complete stop in production for the 300K-ton-capacity factory and further exacerbated the supply shortage on the market. The U.S. is the world's largest importer of aluminum, and it also increased purchases this year.

outside of factory explosion, the main cost of producing aluminum is cost of electricity. It takes alot of electricity to convert alumina to metallic aluminum. Maybe 1 reason why china ban bitcoin mining.

Primary production starts with bauxite ore, which, in the United States, is usually imported from Jamaica and South America. Bauxite is then converted into aluminum oxide, or alumina, using natural gas at plants located in the southern United States. After alumina is extracted from bauxite ore, further processing called 'smelting' is necessary to convert it into aluminum. In this process, alumina is dissolved in a solution and a strong electric current is applied. This process has generally remained unchanged since its invention in 1886.



at retail rate of 12.5 cent/kwh, and 15 kwh/kg Al = 85 cents per lb Al, not including cost to convert bauxite to alumina

[LeadHead]

And, it only takes 5% of the energy required to recycle aluminum than to produce new aluminum. Or so wikipedia tells me.

[LeadHead]

Saw this on the KITCO news feed this morning:

Canada to ban alumina exports to Russia.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-03-2...y-worries.html

[everything1]

Why would Canada banning aluminum to Russia, world economies seem just locked.

Pretty little .. well long read on base metals about what metals are really really needed for low carbon tech. Aluminum is discussed, barely, but is just as important than it was 4 years ago and any auto as we move beyond steel I don't see how it can do it.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explaine...-carbon-future

[LeadHead]

Seen this morning . . . . more bad news for us scrappers.

"Sanctions on Russia could send ripple effect through global supply chains" The main point made is that the Russians are dumping AL on the market, thus depressing the price and energy woes are increasing costs for smelters, thereby decreasing profits.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...3d530198ee7118