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Thread: platinum in Surplus? or Deficit?

  1. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by motocat View Post
    I no longer believe they are as "interchangeable" as some people once explained. If they were, many industries would have already substituted, and given how they are so easy to change, just go back to palladium if that supply situation changes again. I also don't know how relevant historical trends/ratios count -- just consider aluminum price over the years. However, platinum does also have more popularity (than palladium and rhodium) in the jewelry and bullion worlds, my hope is it would become even more popular in these areas, more like gold. It may be happening slowly, more slowly than I had hoped for. I personally like platinum, but that matters not, it is public sentiment that counts, and this is why I favor gold as my top monetary holding. I am no longer so patient with platinum, I've been trading paper platinum for some years now, it's the only way my plat holdings have not fallen way behind inflation.
    I believe that Platinum is generally superior or the same in almost all applications.
    I believe that it is the EV thing that is stopping the automakers from changing back to using mostly Platinum, as well as the diversity of supply issue ( noted below)
    Apparently it is not an easy or quick change to flip the two in CC`s ( noted below)

    I was equally mystified when I bought Palladium many years ago.( very reason of price discrepancy) I had to wait quite a few years and sold too soon, but turned out pretty good.
    I have a feeling Platinum will also, even though it certainly has headwinds, but opportunities ( some discussed below). I am still awaiting entry point, but only due other factors not
    related to Platinum. Of course, the future is uncertain. Articles are a little dated but still relevant.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/427...mand-and-price

    https://www.theassay.com/articles/ho...tric-vehicles/

  2. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by motocat View Post
    The short term price chats tell you little about surplus or deficit, at least not industrially. Long term charts clearly show us Palladium and Rhodium have been in deficit, while there sister in Platinum in surplus. The way they are mined together is one reason for the large disparity. This, what has happened in the past, is not really debatable. The future is what is far more murky. Obviously, I have placed my bets on platinum becoming more in demand, and thus increase in value, deficits and not surplus. As it is, I'm now all out of Palladium and Rhodium (deficit), but with plenty of platinum, a larger share of my net assets than I imagined would have happened. I do hope that changes, but as of now, I need to be honest and call platinum in surplus, let's not make an imaginary world just because we wish it was more valuable. Rooting for platinum to overtake gold again, I'm just not counting on it, never count on things beyond my control.
    I want to see PT take stage again and overturn AU.

    I remember investing in PT when it was king and then it all changed.

    IMO Most metals are undervalued and they have been since 2008.

    These prices are not highs, if anything I think they are moderate ones. Kept as they are to stop the rise of inflation in a era of low inflation post 2008.

    If we ever come out of this era and inflation starts to rise again then so will the price of metals.

    But what they fear now is Crypto, as they are finding it hard to deal with, so they go on the attack by hitting the Miners, and spread fear in the markets by word of mouth.
    Last edited by midiman; 07-04-2021 at 03:50 AM.

  3. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by midiman View Post
    I want to see PT take stage again and overturn AU.

    I remember investing in PT when it was king and then it all changed.
    I've been wanting this for over 5 years. I don't think it matters what we want or believe. Price action has clearly told us platinum (primarily an industrial metal), is still in surplus for whatever reasons us little guys can only make a guess on.

    That's the clear and correct answer to this threads question: Surplus.

    Things may change one day, just needed to get it straight based on the real prices you can get platinum at today, and if inflation is factored in, it looks even worse.

    No matter, I'm not selling, helps balance my PM holdings.
    Last edited by motocat; 07-23-2021 at 10:40 AM.
    “Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring class of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money.”Daniel Webster (1782-1852)

  4. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by motocat View Post
    I've been wanting this for over 5 years. I don't think it matters what we want or believe. Price action has clearly told us platinum (primarily an industrial metal), is still in surplus for whatever reasons us little guys can only make a guess on.

    That's the clear and correct answer to this threads question: Surplus.

    Things may change one day, just needed to get it straight based on the real prices you can get platinum at today, and if inflation is factored in, it looks even worse.

    No matter, I'm not selling, helps balance my PM holdings.
    the more electric cars come out like the mustang you may loose. soon they will 4 wheel electrec where each wheel is self powered . no pms needed you loose
    Last edited by Mytal; 07-24-2021 at 08:54 PM.
    Live Well* Love Much* Laugh Often

  5. #15

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mytal View Post
    the more electric cars come out like the mustang you may loose. soon they will 4 wheel electrec where each wheel is self powered . no pms needed you loose
    it is my belief ford loses money on every mach-e they sell. A teardown of the mach-e had shown it's years behind tesla. I think ford would lose money of selling their e-f150, maybe make money on the loaded up models.

  6. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by yellowsnow View Post
    it is my belief ford loses money on every mach-e they sell. A teardown of the mach-e had shown it's years behind tesla. I think ford would lose money of selling their e-f150, maybe make money on the loaded up models.
    okay .. well if someone took advantage of the rest stops Michigan closed (and not demoded from Novi to Saginaw) and turned them to charging / kiosks they would be rich.yet most can go 240 or more on a 240 volt charge in hours. you are right that the towing ability for trucks, is off kilter with electric, yet if you read the stickers they blow your mind. nice to hear from you
    Last edited by Mytal; 07-25-2021 at 06:32 PM.
    Live Well* Love Much* Laugh Often

  7. #17

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mytal View Post
    okay .. well if someone took advantage of the rest stops Michigan closed (and not demoded from Novi to Saginaw) and turned them to charging / kiosks they would be rich.yet most can go 240 or more on a 240 volt charge in hours. you are right that the towing ability for trucks, is off kilter with electric, yet if you read the stickers they blow your mind. nice to hear from you
    tesla will be opening their charging stations to all other brands.

  8. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mytal View Post
    the more electric cars come out like the mustang you may loose. soon they will 4 wheel electrec where each wheel is self powered . no pms needed you loose
    I've also read articles in which PM's will become even more valuable industrially with the conversion to alternatively powered vehicles. You never know. And with gold, it's primary worth is due to use as money and in jewelry. No reason platinum can't increase in monetary and jewelry use to become more like gold. The bottom line is you can't tell the future - so diversifying is wise. Don't you wish you also bought good amounts of Palladium and Rhodium when they were 10x less costly?
    “Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring class of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money.”Daniel Webster (1782-1852)

  9. #19

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    Moto you are a wise in projecting



    motocat you have been wise in your invested choices. I started in silver then sold most to buy gold .... wouldnt change a thing, the market in pgms is just scary for me. You seem to be doing good. I cant risk it. The time will come when even semi trucks are all electric- just emagine....
    In the mean time some do prefer wearing a nice Platinum bracelet or ring... What to do, what to do.
    Live Well* Love Much* Laugh Often

  10. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by motocat View Post
    Guess I am a fool, as the price action tells me it must be in surplus, that's years of buildup. And because palladium and rhodium are so profitable, it's worth it to mine even more platinum in trying to get to her more desired sisters.

    That said, I'm a value shopper, and at sub $1,000, I'll think of again, and I'm always looking for low premiums for the physical (given I hold PPLT I can exchange for).
    Well, we are at sub $1,000. Am I buying? Almost pulled the trigger. Did not. Why? As per my contributions to this thread, I see platinum in a surplus, unlike palladium which is in a deficit. Nothing has changed, well except dollar inflation, which means platinum real market value is still falling. And once things do, price will correct faster than anyone here can act because we will get the news last. I do not think platinum or palladium are easily interchangeable, nor does anyone decide to go with palladium over platinum merely for geopolitical predictions of future events as some have theorized here. That's all B.S. of people hoping they can know more than they actually do. Us little people are in the dark. As such, I'm holding what I have, and will only buy at the $900 and under prices I always felt are good.

    Of course, I already have lots of platinum, to high a percentage of my wealth held up in a very tiny market. If I had little or none, I would be stocking more at todays low prices. Given what I have, I'll wait till the sub $900 prices again that I've always considered a bargain, and sell for trade on ups, I'm not going to just forever wait for platinum to take it's rightful place in PM hierarchy, pretty little platinum blondes will need to work harder, unlike her more valued golden blonde sister who can just sit around and be OK.
    “Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring class of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money.”Daniel Webster (1782-1852)

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