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Thread: platinum in Surplus? or Deficit?

  1. #1

    Default platinum in Surplus? or Deficit?

    I just typed into Google two search's:
    Is platinum in surplus? Is platinum in deficit?
    I am once again amazed and baffled by the information disparity available online...

    Platinum market to remain in surplus in 2020 despite auto rebound - WPIC
    https://www.reuters.com/article/plat...-idUSL8N2AV68D

    Platinum deficit to reach 1.2 million ounces in 2020 – report
    https://www.mining.com/platinum-defi...n-2020-report/

    Platinum market may be headed for surplus in 2021, Implats executive says
    https://www.spglobal.com/marketintel...-says-62873128

    Platinum market to remain in deficit in 2021: WPIC
    https://www.mining-journal.com/pgms/...t-in-2021-wpic

  2. #2

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    Hi, was confused as well last year. There has been a 2.5-3 million over supply in reserves for many years. Platinum is projected to go into world wide deficit by 2025. The articles are talking about the supply/demand just for one particular year, not accounting for what was built up in 2015-2016-2017 probably.

  3. #3

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    I wish Platinum was in Surplus inside of my safe.

  4. #4

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    Hi Freedom,

    WPIC released the quarterly report

    2013 -665
    2014 -715
    2015 -200
    2016 -280
    2017 +300
    2018 +800
    2019 -102
    2020 -863
    2021 -160 projected to be a bit more if investment demand picks up

    Watched a commodities video and worldwide reserves of pt. are in 2,200 koz range?. Surplus is expected to be used up by early 2024. Mining production is flat with no new mines scheduled to open in the next few years. From most of the bullion video's Ive seen, most of the "experts'' expect platinum price in the 4000's by the later 2020's(starting in 2027 ish).
    Last edited by jrtjrt; 05-17-2021 at 04:24 AM.

  5. #5

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    Anybody that thinks Pt is in surplus with the investment demand and mine shutdowns is a fool.

  6. #6

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    Guess I am a fool, as the price action tells me it must be in surplus, that's years of buildup. And because palladium and rhodium are so profitable, it's worth it to mine even more platinum in trying to get to her more desired sisters.

    That said, I'm a value shopper, and at sub $1,000, I'll think of again, and I'm always looking for low premiums for the physical (given I hold PPLT I can exchange for).
    “Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring class of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money.”Daniel Webster (1782-1852)

  7. #7

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    PT, RH & PD are not in surplus.

    There was a good video posted on Kitco a couple of months ago and the analyst said that the PGMs are far from top of where they should be and that they have years to go because of their scarcity.

    But I don't know what is currently going on with them because.

    1. We are still in a worldwide pandemic.
    2. Most of the mines are still at reduced output.
    3. Demand is rising.
    4. There is a reduced amount of supply on the ground.

    Yet the prices are going down???

    But the same can be said of the Crypto market where we have seen strange activity going on.

    Lets hope that the prices return back to where they were at the beginning of the year.

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by midiman View Post
    PT, RH & PD are not in surplus.

    There was a good video posted on Kitco a couple of months ago and the analyst said that the PGMs are far from top of where they should be and that they have years to go because of their scarcity.

    But I don't know what is currently going on with them because.

    1. We are still in a worldwide pandemic.
    2. Most of the mines are still at reduced output.
    3. Demand is rising.
    4. There is a reduced amount of supply on the ground.

    Yet the prices are going down???

    But the same can be said of the Crypto market where we have seen strange activity going on.

    Lets hope that the prices return back to where they were at the beginning of the year.
    The short term price chats tell you little about surplus or deficit, at least not industrially. Long term charts clearly show us Palladium and Rhodium have been in deficit, while there sister in Platinum in surplus. The way they are mined together is one reason for the large disparity. This, what has happened in the past, is not really debatable. The future is what is far more murky. Obviously, I have placed my bets on platinum becoming more in demand, and thus increase in value, deficits and not surplus. As it is, I'm now all out of Palladium and Rhodium (deficit), but with plenty of platinum, a larger share of my net assets than I imagined would have happened. I do hope that changes, but as of now, I need to be honest and call platinum in surplus, let's not make an imaginary world just because we wish it was more valuable. Rooting for platinum to overtake gold again, I'm just not counting on it, never count on things beyond my control.
    “Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring class of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money.”Daniel Webster (1782-1852)

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by motocat View Post
    The short term price chats tell you little about surplus or deficit, at least not industrially. Long term charts clearly show us Palladium and Rhodium have been in deficit, while there sister in Platinum in surplus. The way they are mined together is one reason for the large disparity. This, what has happened in the past, is not really debatable. The future is what is far more murky. Obviously, I have placed my bets on platinum becoming more in demand, and thus increase in value, deficits and not surplus. As it is, I'm now all out of Palladium and Rhodium (deficit), but with plenty of platinum, a larger share of my net assets than I imagined would have happened. I do hope that changes, but as of now, I need to be honest and call platinum in surplus, let's not make an imaginary world just because we wish it was more valuable. Rooting for platinum to overtake gold again, I'm just not counting on it, never count on things beyond my control.
    My limited understanding of the reason platinum is far less expensive then palladium is supply disruption concerns. Palladium and Platinum are very interchangeable so you would think that their price
    would be somewhat comparable. Too much Platinum production is based in South Africa and most of rest, in Russia. Somewhat similar for Palladium, but less so, and some in NA.
    If more Platinum was mined in " more stable countries" then many think that Platinum would be much higher, as historical. I am convinced Platinum is a real bargain at this price but I am hoping it will
    get a little bit cheaper in my currency. Getting close. May have to wait a while to make some money, but worked with Palladium, and I waited a long time (should have waited even longer)

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    My limited understanding of the reason platinum is far less expensive then palladium is supply disruption concerns. Palladium and Platinum are very interchangeable so you would think that their price
    would be somewhat comparable. Too much Platinum production is based in South Africa and most of rest, in Russia. Somewhat similar for Palladium, but less so, and some in NA.
    If more Platinum was mined in " more stable countries" then many think that Platinum would be much higher, as historical. I am convinced Platinum is a real bargain at this price but I am hoping it will
    get a little bit cheaper in my currency. Getting close. May have to wait a while to make some money, but worked with Palladium, and I waited a long time (should have waited even longer)
    I no longer believe they are as "interchangeable" as some people once explained. If they were, many industries would have already substituted, and given how they are so easy to change, just go back to palladium if that supply situation changes again. I also don't know how relevant historical trends/ratios count -- just consider aluminum price over the years. However, platinum does also have more popularity (than palladium and rhodium) in the jewelry and bullion worlds, my hope is it would become even more popular in these areas, more like gold. It may be happening slowly, more slowly than I had hoped for. I personally like platinum, but that matters not, it is public sentiment that counts, and this is why I favor gold as my top monetary holding. I am no longer so patient with platinum, I've been trading paper platinum for some years now, it's the only way my plat holdings have not fallen way behind inflation.
    “Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring class of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money.”Daniel Webster (1782-1852)

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