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Thread: Great depression Two

  1. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    It is hard to find a better asset to have been invested in this century, than gold
    The 12/31/1999 price was $290.30. You can do the math. Far better return than even the high flying US stock indexes including their dividends.

    I only wish I had had more of my money invested in gold bullion instead of small % then.

    As for the future I have no idea, but I do know one thing.

    Everything that the gold bugs said about fiat currency and how governments would debase it and abuse it, have come true in spades. I was not totally convinced at one time.


    I would be very careful with most stocks, coming into the fall. The good times are mostly priced into the markets. Negative events, of any sort, are not. ( of course none may occur and they could continue to trend up)

    I have a different view of cash, or near cash, then many. Although it earns sub inflation returns, it earns extraordinary returns when markets correct violently. like they tend to do every so often.
    Not only do you not have to sell anything ( possibly) at a low, if you need money, you sleep better knowing that a significant correction is a buying opportunity.

    All assets have their place in a portfolio, it is just the allocation at different times of market cycles and your life cycle, along with your psychological profile, and very importantly, do you have enough now, and want to keep its purchasing power, or do you need more. My humble opinion.
    Although you cherry picked that specific date for your gold calculation data, I do agree that everything has its time and place. TBT, this is the very concept that got me going into the Crypto world.

    And worthy to mention that during the last crash in Metals, there wasn't too much available to be bought at those "buying opportunity prices", and my cash under the mattress had to stay there . . . so there's that recent history.

    Little bit of everything does seem the best way to go.
    No his mind is not for rent
    To any god or government
    Always hopeful, yet discontent
    He knows changes aren't permanent
    But change is

  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Sage View Post
    Although you cherry picked that specific date for your gold calculation data, I do agree that everything has its time and place. TBT, this is the very concept that got me going into the Crypto world.

    And worthy to mention that during the last crash in Metals, there wasn't too much available to be bought at those "buying opportunity prices", and my cash under the mattress had to stay there . . . so there's that recent history.

    Little bit of everything does seem the best way to go.


    You could have bought some PM stocks that cratered, and done very well during the time you mentioned. Lots of availability there.

    I am not an advocate of any particular asset, as we both agree they all have there time and place.

    I agree, little bit of cherry picking, but the start of a new century does sound like a good place to start.
    21+ years is a long time for out performance of an asset that pays no dividend, over a media darling that does.
    It will be interesting how many more years gold can keep it going.

  3. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    It is hard to find a better asset to have been invested in this century, than gold
    The 12/31/1999 price was $290.30. You can do the math. Far better return than even the high flying US stock indexes including their dividends.

    I only wish I had had more of my money invested in gold bullion instead of small % then.
    I remember those days, clearly. If you bought at that time, you would've been one of the very few rare birds believing in the metal. It was completely off of nearly everyone's radar. I started stacking in early 2002, and even then, only one other person I knew was bullish on gold.

  4. #24

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    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    You could have bought some PM stocks that cratered, and done very well during the time you mentioned. Lots of availability there.
    ...
    I had considered that, but the timing was not that long after the comex default & I was concerned that the ETFs could be the next to go pooff. As it turns out, the sky did not fall, the miners did well & so did the ETFs.

  5. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    You could have bought some PM stocks that cratered, and done very well during the time you mentioned. Lots of availability there.

    I am not an advocate of any particular asset, as we both agree they all have there time and place.

    I agree, little bit of cherry picking, but the start of a new century does sound like a good place to start.
    21+ years is a long time for out performance of an asset that pays no dividend, over a media darling that does.
    It will be interesting how many more years gold can keep it going.
    Could you list 3 or 4 great PM stocks that will likely crater during the next big crash and then do very well afterward. thanks.
    No his mind is not for rent
    To any god or government
    Always hopeful, yet discontent
    He knows changes aren't permanent
    But change is

  6. #26

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    I had assumed you were referring to the last significant crash around 10 years ago ( 45% drop or so over few year period).
    You could have bought some distressed PM stocks then and done quite well, if you did not think the bullion was a good option.
    I wished I did, but I am not enamored with the management of most mining stocks.( another missed opportunity among many for me, but sometimes slow and steady wins the race) It was just an example, based on your post,
    about your cash having to stay there. Also my preceding post saying cash is great for opportunities.
    As far as what PM stocks will do well in the future if they crater, I would say if you buy a basket of them, the PROBABILITY is that you will do well. Same can be said of most any asset class,


    "And worthy to mention that during the last crash in Metals, there wasn't too much available to be bought at those "buying opportunity prices", and my cash under the mattress had to stay there . . . so there's that recent history."



    Quote Originally Posted by The Sage View Post
    Could you list 3 or 4 great PM stocks that will likely crater during the next big crash and then do very well afterward. thanks.

  7. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Sage View Post
    And worthy to mention that during the last crash in Metals, there wasn't too much available to be bought at those "buying opportunity prices", and my cash under the mattress had to stay there . . . so there's that recent history.

    Little bit of everything does seem the best way to go.
    What you do is buy paper PM's at those low prices when you can't find physical, and then sell them to buy the physical when things return to relative normality. This is what I've been preaching here for some time, maybe you can also learn a bit from others here instead of just trying to defeat imaginary opponents?
    “Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring class of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money.”Daniel Webster (1782-1852)

  8. #28

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    The depression in fiat that some have been thinking would happen for years will not come, as the fed and their allies in government have many ways to increase fiat supply, creating digits out of thin air is really not that hard, their only task is to not make their tricks to obvious to the general audience. Sure, there will be times when there is a drop in asset prices (before they can react), but nothing like the great depression. Also, this does not mean there will not be major problems with the general economy, of which there are many complex factors that effect this, such as world trade, increasing automation, and corporate control of our lives (including belief systems and sources of information) -- however it is very easy to keep fiat deflation from happening.

    I would caution on holding large amounts of cash (or equivalents) for long periods, this faith in cash as gold has hurt so many common folks over the years, and enabled their financial masters to rule through lies and deceit.
    “Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring class of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money.”Daniel Webster (1782-1852)

  9. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    I had assumed you were referring to the last significant crash around 10 years ago ( 45% drop or so over few year period).
    You could have bought some distressed PM stocks then and done quite well, if you did not think the bullion was a good option.
    I wished I did, but I am not enamored with the management of most mining stocks.( another missed opportunity among many for me, but sometimes slow and steady wins the race) It was just an example, based on your post,
    about your cash having to stay there. Also my preceding post saying cash is great for opportunities.
    As far as what PM stocks will do well in the future if they crater, I would say if you buy a basket of them, the PROBABILITY is that you will do well. Same can be said of most any asset class,


    "And worthy to mention that during the last crash in Metals, there wasn't too much available to be bought at those "buying opportunity prices", and my cash under the mattress had to stay there . . . so there's that recent history."
    Ah . . . I see what you are saying. My thoughts were buying physical at the time, not stocks of miners or other. Unlike buying physical at an LCS or locking in an order at an online gold retailer . . . One can not walk into a stock brokerage (or bank) with a suitcase of $100 bills and have that deposited into the account and have it become available for use, in a short amount of time, without a lot of raised eyebrows, in order to quickly buy ETFs or Stocks. But over a longer timeframe, sure, I get it.
    No his mind is not for rent
    To any god or government
    Always hopeful, yet discontent
    He knows changes aren't permanent
    But change is

  10. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by motocat View Post
    What you do is buy paper PM's at those low prices when you can't find physical, and then sell them to buy the physical when things return to relative normality. This is what I've been preaching here for some time, maybe you can also learn a bit from others here instead of just trying to defeat imaginary opponents?
    OK Mr. Guru , what "paper" products to you prefer?
    No his mind is not for rent
    To any god or government
    Always hopeful, yet discontent
    He knows changes aren't permanent
    But change is

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