Moderator
A boatload of the play cryptos are running along with BTC... many are up double digits, some up 15%, and a few up 50%. I believe they are up on a pump and dump that is fueled by BTCs rise (I'm not saying bitcoin is on a pump and dump although I don't know either way).
In any case my 42k call was not a winner as btc has gone on to 44+ or maybe higher by now, and I didn't guess 44 I guessed 42.
"...trusting the government with money is like trusting a teenager with a Corvette and a bottle of Jack Daniels." - Doug Casey
Member
Dude, you are killing me! No one hits any of this exactly. Be happy you saw the trend and trajectory.Originally Posted by ynot2k
Now there's no more oak oppression
They passed a noble law
Now the trees are all kept equal
By hatchet, axe and saw.
I will not comply.
The Tea Party... quietly plotting to take over the world,
and leave you the hell alone!
Member
Don't worry, it will go back down.
Member
Sigh.... Okay Eeyore... You have been saying that since it was $200 a coin....
Now there's no more oak oppression
They passed a noble law
Now the trees are all kept equal
By hatchet, axe and saw.
I will not comply.
The Tea Party... quietly plotting to take over the world,
and leave you the hell alone!
Member
Whatever. It isn't work jack to me, so I can only value it at zero.
Member
Not meant as argumentative, just bustin' your chops....
Now there's no more oak oppression
They passed a noble law
Now the trees are all kept equal
By hatchet, axe and saw.
I will not comply.
The Tea Party... quietly plotting to take over the world,
and leave you the hell alone!
Moderator
Technically Atlas is right. It always has gone back down. Maybe there will be a true "this time is different" at some point in the future... but do you think we are there yet?
Interesting number you chose though... 120k. From there a 66% drop would bring it back to the 40k take off point. A run followed by a 66ish percent pull back seems like a familiar pattern doesn't it?
At this point in time I have no guess as to what direction it goes or how far it goes that way.
"...trusting the government with money is like trusting a teenager with a Corvette and a bottle of Jack Daniels." - Doug Casey
Member
Yes. If you go from the bottom pre spike, it starts at 8Kish and the 67K is roughly 8x. If you start at 16K, 8x is roughly 120K....
Now there's no more oak oppression
They passed a noble law
Now the trees are all kept equal
By hatchet, axe and saw.
I will not comply.
The Tea Party... quietly plotting to take over the world,
and leave you the hell alone!
Member
My thoughts on Bitcoin is that it is a liquidity driven construct.
The money to purchase each coin at a higher price must come from somewhere.
That is why its shining time was in the turbo M2 charged period shortly after Covid until QT started. ( late 2020 to mid 2022)
Very similar to their cousin - the speculative tech stocks.
So why have Bitcoin/cryptos charged higher lately. Same reason as all risk assets, huge fiscal pump in past year as well as elation that rates will go down soon. (misguided)
1) this is misguided as historically risk assets do horrible when rates go down ( there is a reason why they do and it is not usually good)
2) If bond prices are increasing and stock prices are increasing and the economy is weakening ( see current GDP) and other countries are weak and QT is still happening
and Reverse Repo Facility is quickly being depleted, and Government is starting to get more ham stringed with divided congress for unlimited spend, then where is the needed increase
in liquidity coming from. Margin or savings?. Savings have been eroded in past year and banks are not exactly keen on granting high margin rates on Cryptos.
3) If economy is bad in 2024 than biggest correction will be in most volatile assets.
There is always the possibility of the Fed starting up the printing press again, but I am very doubtful this time, unless really bad, as 3 strikes and you are out. More likely they will just stop QT which will be not nearly enough. Fed stabilizers will kick in, but will only cushion the blow. ( Maybe)
My view on all Cryptos is that it is a speculative asset that is best left to the nimble, TA buffs and the lucky. It is severely hampered by the fact that you cannot live in it, farm it, rent it, wear it, use it industrially, it pays no interest or dividend, it produces no product, and it produces very few jobs for its market value. As far as just as a base of exchange, I have a hard time thinking governments are not going to muscle in on using its process and simply adopt their own. That does not mean it could not fluctuate between a 100 million and 2 trillion market share depending on liquidity. That leaves a lot of room for huge gains if you feel very skilled and lucky. I believe no money will be made,(net) just reallocated.
My guess is that it is going down, along with the Nasdaq and a lot of other assets in the next 12 months, per usual after rates start to drop.
Then again, my timing leaves something to be desired, when reading the economy, but strange enough, blind luck has been good when investing.
Luck is always a very advantageous asset. Just keeping it around is the hard part.
I am going to start doing more research in this area, as I would be the first to admit I have not really dug into it. I have always had my suspicions about its originations.
That being said it has proven to be viable and profitable so far.
Moderator
I am weary or is it wary, or both, of the fact that all of the sh1tcoins are running up like fireworks as well. The 'space' would be more believable to me if some of the crapcoins increased a bit along with bitcoin... but for practically every single one of them to bust a move higher leaves me suspicious.
I think the stock market has been behaving the same way also leaving me wary. So many companies just run with the herd... what - at any given company - materially changed from the day it went down 3% (with the market in general) - and the day it runs up 5% (again with the market)... nothing changed is what. It's not an actual valuation of a company, it is a speculation that "the market" is moving up so this stock (read stock, not the business under it) will also.
Pay no attention to rambling post like this. I grok very little of this stuff, I just like hanging out with you guys
"...trusting the government with money is like trusting a teenager with a Corvette and a bottle of Jack Daniels." - Doug Casey
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