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Thread: Stock Picks and Tips

  1. #141
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    3,118

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    I can assure everyone that there is no way you can get near a 8% yield on a 90 day US treasury in todays market. You will get a tiny bit over 5%

    I was just curious on the figures by Redrum and if just a simple misquote of figures or an over optimistic bid price.

    What is interesting and of great concern is the variance in yield of the 1 month treasury to that of other shorter term Tbills ( like 3 month)
    There should be minimal variance. The variance has been as much as 150 basis points in past week, which is just crazy.
    This rarely occurs and only at times of extreme anxiety among larger players for ( the ultimate in collateral)
    This is considered the shortest term US TBILL ( 30 day). Obviously huge demand despite the low yield relative to similar securities.



    Think about it, why would players with very large amounts of money to place take 3.5% yield instead of 5% on essentially the same security except for a small term period differential. They could park their money at the reverse repo facility at near 5% and that is overnight

    This would lead me to believe one of 2 things or probably a mix of both.
    1) Extreme anxiety over collateral ( fear in counter party risk)
    2) Supply of new US TBILLS being temporarily restricted by US treasury using its cash balances to fund government until June when it runs out. This is due to it being at its borrowing limit. Perhaps players think they will get better prices in a couple months when lots more new supply to rebuild treasury operating cash reserves and repay accounts they are ' borrowing from', and perhaps onset of recession which means even more government supply.

    Who knows but it is possible that there is a chance it is signifying very imminent and significant collateral fear in market ie 2008/09, when last this happened.

    It just narrowed some today, I believe, but still unusual variance.

  2. #142

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    In response to Brutus2 - "You just posted the following;

    "We have buys in for 128 shares at $980.80 each that I expect to fill within a half hour or so. These never fill right away but so far every bid accepted has filled. Once filled they pay out $1,000. on 7/27/2023."

    I do not do the math but the price has dropped to - to $987.20 now and Treasury direct notes it as a "bid" 5.065% annualized payout rate.

    Treasury Direct 13 week Bill: https://treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/

    13-Week No 912796Y29 04/27/2023 5.065% 5.216% $98.719681

    Brutus, I just checked my accounts and I have a TYPO in my price. I actually paid $988.00.
    Last edited by Redrum; 04-29-2023 at 12:03 PM.
    Current investment plan is post #1606, Free S & P sentiment index (Post #564), https://www.ndr.com/invest/infopage/S573 SSD = Simply Safe Dividends Post #1162, http://simplysafedividends.com Sentiment Wave Analysis, https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/ I do a lot of analysis on the Seeking Alpha site. https://seekingalpha.com/ Heck I could be totally wrong!

  3. #143
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    3,118

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    Quote Originally Posted by Redrum View Post
    In response to Brutus2 - "You just posted the following;

    "We have buys in for 128 shares at $980.80 each that I expect to fill within a half hour or so. These never fill right away but so far every bid accepted has filled. Once filled they pay out $1,000. on 7/27/2023."

    I do not do the math but the price has dropped to $987.20 now and Treasury direct notes it as a "bid" 5.065% annualized payout rate.

    Treasury Direct 13 week Bill: https://treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/

    13-Week No 912796Y29 04/27/2023 5.065% 5.216% $98.719681
    Ahh, makes more sense now that the ask price has risen significantly. This makes the annualized yield more in line with the 5% + a bit.

    On another note Redrum, love your move to long dated treasuries. Think it is a good 1 year trade that has low probability of loss in a very risky environment, and a high probability of some capital gains if nimble. Collect some interest while you are at it. Sleep well also.

  4. #144

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    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    Ahh, makes more sense now that the ask price has risen significantly. This makes the annualized yield more in line with the 5% + a bit.

    On another note Redrum, love your move to long dated treasuries. Think it is a good 1 year trade that has low probability of loss in a very risky environment, and a high probability of some capital gains if nimble. Collect some interest while you are at it. Sleep well also.
    Brutus, I just checked my accounts and I have a TYPO in my price. I actually paid $988.00.
    Current investment plan is post #1606, Free S & P sentiment index (Post #564), https://www.ndr.com/invest/infopage/S573 SSD = Simply Safe Dividends Post #1162, http://simplysafedividends.com Sentiment Wave Analysis, https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/ I do a lot of analysis on the Seeking Alpha site. https://seekingalpha.com/ Heck I could be totally wrong!

  5. #145

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    Big Lots

    BIG LOTS, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
    Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows
    Last year, Big Lots cut roughly 10% of overall skus to carve out space for closeouts. More recently, it made addition cuts in soft home to create more open-to-buy for branded top-of-bed and pillows, including U.S. Polo and Chaps brands.

    https://www.hometextilestoday.com/re...-sales-tumble/

    Not that top-of-bed home textiles are a game changer, these are quality brands that I buy, even more when discounted.
    2023 Bankruptcy Spotlight
    Bed Bath & Beyond: Home goods, baby goods
    Davidís Bridal: Date: April 2023: Bridal apparel
    Boxed: April 2023: An e-commerce platform selling wholesale consumer goods
    Independent Pet Partners: February 2023: Pet supplies
    Tuesday Morning: February 2023: Discount home goods
    Serta Simmons Bedding: January 2023: Bedding and accessories
    Party City: January 2023: Party supplies
    Forma Brands: January 2023: Beauty products

    Consider these consumers will continue shopping for bargains. Someone at BIG is paying attention.
    "That's not money" - Ben Bernanke

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