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Thread: Questions/concerns on company specific issues, ETF's/Mutual Funds/Closed End Funds/BDC's/Bond funds

  1. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot2k View Post
    When I followed technical analysis I found MACD to be useful as one indicator - although I never tried to understand it under the hood. As far as Elliott Wave goes I find it to be far too subjective and practitioners constantly change the scenario to the point that it seems of little use. I appreciate the info you post in your main thread - you certainly do post a good deal so the time must be significant.
    Investing is my hobby so it is fun for me. I probably average 2 hours a day in research and posting here.
    Current investment plan is post #1606, Free S & P sentiment index (Post #564), https://www.ndr.com/invest/infopage/S573 SSD = Simply Safe Dividends Post #1162, http://simplysafedividends.com Sentiment Wave Analysis, https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/ I do a lot of analysis on the Seeking Alpha site. https://seekingalpha.com/ Heck I could be totally wrong!

  2. #22

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    I read a very well written article on SeekingAlpha just now that I felt like I had written most of as it goes into how i see wealth building and keeping. https://seekingalpha.com/article/441...all-your-money

    Here are the 3 main points it covers and the title:

    How People Lose All Of Their Money
    Mar. 23, 2021 4:06 PM ET
    Summary
    One of the most common misconceptions is that once you have money or certain capital, it's difficult to lose it. This is deeply flawed - it's entirely possible.
    Going from million/millions to zero is certainly possible, and there are just as many ways to do so as to go from zero to a million.
    I spend a lot of time researching and looking at both sides of the coin - and in this article I'm talking about how to avoid losing all your money.
    Current investment plan is post #1606, Free S & P sentiment index (Post #564), https://www.ndr.com/invest/infopage/S573 SSD = Simply Safe Dividends Post #1162, http://simplysafedividends.com Sentiment Wave Analysis, https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/ I do a lot of analysis on the Seeking Alpha site. https://seekingalpha.com/ Heck I could be totally wrong!

  3. #23

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    [QUOTE=Redrum;2737545]
    Quote Originally Posted by Kickabuck View Post

    The fact Kelcy stepped down is secondary to the harm he caused in the reputation of ET. You have the right to comment but you are very knowingly disturbing my intentions for this blog which is rude and your attitude about it is condescending.

    Energy Transfer CEO Kelcy Warren will resign from his position and hand over control of the company to executives Mackie McCrea and Tom Long, who will serve as co-CEOs, starting January 1. However, Warren will stay on as executive chairman and chairman of the board of directors and "will continue to be intimately involved in the strategic growth of Energy Transfer," he said.

    So, you do realize his stepping down was basically a "publicity stunt" created to fool the greater fool?
    This is funny, who's the greater investor fool? I don't read your personal diary, or "blog" as you call it anymore. You turned me off when you isolated the entire thread to your posts only, without outside comments. Just curious if you're watching ET up roughly 10% in 30 days...coupled with a 7.5% dividend, and a $11 forward looking price from the $8+ it sits at. Goes ex-dividend May 10th...

  4. #24

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    Kickabuck, The legal issues I noted regarding ET have had some degree of resolution after the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled the Army Corps of Engineers fell short of the National Environmental Policy Act when it allowed the Dakota Access Pipeline to cross a federal reservoir in North Dakota and that the violation warranted scrapping the easement. Despite this finding the court reiterated its previous ruling that the lower court overstepped when it ordered the pipeline to shut down.

    Energy Transfer announced plans to acquire Enable Midstream in a $7 billion all-equity transaction on 2/17/2021. This deal increased Energy Transfer's units outstanding by about 14%, but management plans to maintain the firm's current $0.61 per unit distribution. The combined company will retain more DCF after paying distributions thanks to its larger scale and potential to realize some cost synergies. This did make the combined company more interesting to hold as it took the dividend from an UNSAFE rating to a BORDERLINE SAFE rating.

    As I noted in my prior communications with you - EPD had a better dividend safety rating and paid a higher dividend. Both of these remain valid today with EPD still having a SAFE dividend rating of 65 and EPD as of the close today pays a 7.74% dividend as compared to ET having a Borderline Safe dividend rating of 50 while paying a lower 7.25% dividend.

    ET is still 11.8% below it's 52 week high of $9.55 hit on 6/08/2020 while EPD hit a new 52 week high of $23.71 on 3/15/2021 and EPD is only 1.8% below it's 52 week high as of the market close today.

    ET is followed by 15 analysts with 12 having ET as a BUY with a price target of $11.33. EPD is followed by 25 analysts with all 25 having EPD as a BUY and a price target of $27.63.

    I stand behind my earlier assessment with the above notes taken into account. However, I have owned ET in the past and may buy ET again if Kelcy Warren is kept under control enough for ET to regain a dividend safety score above 60.

    You can read or not read my blog notes as you choose as I have stated to you why I want questions or even challenges to my position(s) in this thread.
    Last edited by Redrum; 04-27-2021 at 11:01 PM.
    Current investment plan is post #1606, Free S & P sentiment index (Post #564), https://www.ndr.com/invest/infopage/S573 SSD = Simply Safe Dividends Post #1162, http://simplysafedividends.com Sentiment Wave Analysis, https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/ I do a lot of analysis on the Seeking Alpha site. https://seekingalpha.com/ Heck I could be totally wrong!

  5. #25

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    Chess match continues:

    ET up 44% ytd going ex-dividend at roughly 7% annualized on 5/10.
    EPD up 20% ytd going ex-dividend at roughly 7% annualized on 7/29

    ET target of 11
    EPD target of 27

    All numbers are as I see them, they may or may not be accurate

  6. #26

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kickabuck View Post
    Chess match continues:

    ET up 44% ytd going ex-dividend at roughly 7% annualized on 5/10.
    EPD up 20% ytd going ex-dividend at roughly 7% annualized on 7/29

    ET target of 11
    EPD target of 27

    All numbers are as I see them, they may or may not be accurate
    You have your selection for the reasons you note and I have mine for the reasons I note, we can both be right for the reasons we note....
    Current investment plan is post #1606, Free S & P sentiment index (Post #564), https://www.ndr.com/invest/infopage/S573 SSD = Simply Safe Dividends Post #1162, http://simplysafedividends.com Sentiment Wave Analysis, https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/ I do a lot of analysis on the Seeking Alpha site. https://seekingalpha.com/ Heck I could be totally wrong!

  7. #27

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    ET - The company saw a positive earnings impact from the extreme weather of about $2.4 billion, it said Thursday in its first-quarter earnings statement. Energy Transfer raised its full-year earnings guidance to as much as $13.3 billion, from up to $11 billion previously.

    Missed adding this nugget: During the first quarter of 2021, the Partnership used cash from operations to reduce outstanding debt by approximately $3.7 billion.
    Last edited by Kickabuck; 05-06-2021 at 04:47 PM. Reason: Missed adding nugget.

  8. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kickabuck View Post
    ET - The company saw a positive earnings impact from the extreme weather of about $2.4 billion, it said Thursday in its first-quarter earnings statement. Energy Transfer raised its full-year earnings guidance to as much as $13.3 billion, from up to $11 billion previously.

    Missed adding this nugget: During the first quarter of 2021, the Partnership used cash from operations to reduce outstanding debt by approximately $3.7 billion.
    I certainly cannot deny that ET has a lot going in the right direction now. The legal issues are still a concern for me as is their dividend safety score being only 50 (Borderline Safe) due largely to their dividend cut in October, 2020. It would not surprise me if they get a better dividend safety score later this year if they continue to reduce debt. I still choose to stay with EPD.

    I don't know how big a position you hold but ET took a huge jump after the close today.

    Energy Transfer LP
    ET:NYSE
    Quote |After Hours: Last | 7:59 PM EDT
    $9.67 up+0.47 (+5.11%)
    Last edited by Redrum; 05-06-2021 at 10:59 PM.
    Current investment plan is post #1606, Free S & P sentiment index (Post #564), https://www.ndr.com/invest/infopage/S573 SSD = Simply Safe Dividends Post #1162, http://simplysafedividends.com Sentiment Wave Analysis, https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/ I do a lot of analysis on the Seeking Alpha site. https://seekingalpha.com/ Heck I could be totally wrong!

  9. #29

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    Yes, nice to bag a +6.96% single day increase coupled with an ex-dividend going 5/10 @ 6.5 %.

    As a sidebar conversation...IMO, SSD scores are hit and miss. It's a tool in the toolbox, but one of many.

    Can you answer this, I can't get accurate figures ? What is ET's current leverage ratio? Looking as to how far we're off from management's 4.0x to 4.5x target level.

    For transparency, I only hold 2,250 shares.

  10. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kickabuck View Post
    Yes, nice to bag a +6.96% single day increase coupled with an ex-dividend going 5/10 @ 6.5 %.

    As a sidebar conversation...IMO, SSD scores are hit and miss. It's a tool in the toolbox, but one of many.

    Can you answer this, I can't get accurate figures ? What is ET's current leverage ratio? Looking as to how far we're off from management's 4.0x to 4.5x target level.

    For transparency, I only hold 2,250 shares.
    This analyst is pretty accurate:
    Jack Yetiv

    Yesterday, 10:03 PM Contributor
    Comments (725)
    |
    "In addition, even withOUT the Uri benefit, I think EBITDA this year will approach $11.5 billion, and I believe that in addition to the $3.7 billion in debt retired in Q1, ET will retire another $3 billion this year, bringing net debt to $43 billion by the end of the year divided by $11.5=3.7.
    And if ENBL is accretive, which I believe it will be, better yet.
    Any way you slice it, debt will be a non-issue by the end of this year and either buybacks or increasing the distrib will de discussed AND done by time Q4 is reported in Feb, 2022."


    Often times there will be a sell off after a run up like ET had this week. You may want use a stop loss especially if you hold the shares in a tax advantaged account as you could rebuy a lot more shares if ET drops a dollar below your stop loss.

    I still have concerns about the legal costs for ET although I am leaning toward ET winning. Here is the latest:

    "The Chester County, PA District Attorney, Democrat Deb Ryan, has pressured and bullied Energy Transfer (ET) and its Sunoco Pipeline subsidiary into signing a “consent decree” that guarantees if ET spills one cup of drilling mud or creates any kind of “public nuisance” in finishing up work on the Mariner East pipeline, the DA gets to haul the company into county court and charge it with a crime. The consent decree means in addition to the state Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) breathing down their necks, ET now gets a second master (AG Ryan) breathing down their necks too. Joy.

    April 23, 2021"
    Last edited by Redrum; 05-07-2021 at 11:58 PM.
    Current investment plan is post #1606, Free S & P sentiment index (Post #564), https://www.ndr.com/invest/infopage/S573 SSD = Simply Safe Dividends Post #1162, http://simplysafedividends.com Sentiment Wave Analysis, https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/ I do a lot of analysis on the Seeking Alpha site. https://seekingalpha.com/ Heck I could be totally wrong!

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