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Thread: The Fed lost control

  1. #101


    The horse's mouth

    Mumbo Jumbo starts at 17:40

    Powell speak starts at 33:25
    Last edited by SilverPalm; 03-07-2023 at 01:22 PM.
    ďThe Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.Ē
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  2. #102


    Hard to make this s__t up.
    This is what happens when you try to mimic Central Planned Economies.
    When everything revolves around what a bunch of government appointed bureaucrats say then you know the US is in deep doo- doo.
    The below is from a recent article on the current state of the Feds finances.


    The year 2023 is shaping up to be a financially challenging one for the Federal Reserve System. The Fed is on track to post its first annual operating loss since 1915. The annual loss will be large, perhaps $80 billion or more, and this cash loss does not count the massive unrealized mark-to-market losses on the Fedís fixed-rate securities portfolio. An operating loss of $80 billion would, if properly accounted for, leave the Fed with negative capital of $38 billion at year-end 2023. If interest rates stay at their current level or higher, the Fedís operating losses will impact the federal budget for several years, requiring new tax revenues to offset the continuing loss of billions of dollars in Fedís former remittances to the U.S. Treasury.

    The Federal Reserve has already confirmed a substantial operating loss for the fourth quarter of 2022. Audited figures must wait for the Fedís annual financial statements, but a preliminary Fed report for 2022 shows a fourth quarter operating loss of over $18 billion. The losses continued in January 2023, bringing the total loss since September to $27 billion, as shown in the Fedís February 2 H.4.1 Report. Since it raised the cost of its deposits again by raising rates on February 1, the Fed is losing at an even faster rate. If short-term interest rates increase further going forward, the operating loss will correspondingly increase. Again, these are cash losses, and do not include the Fedís unrealized, mark-to-market loss, which it reported as $1.1 trillion as of September 30, 2022.

    The Fed obviously understood its risk of loss when it financed about $5 trillion in long-term, fixed rate, low-yielding mortgage and Treasury securities with floating rate liabilities. These quantitative easing (QE) purchases were a Fed gamble. In the past, with interest rates suppressed to historically minimal levels, the short-funded investments made the Fed a profit. But these investments, so funded, created a massive Fed interest rate risk exposure that could generate mind-boggling losses if interest rates roseóas they now have.

    The return of high inflation required increases in short-term interest rates, but they are only back to normal historical levels. This pushed the cost of the Fedís floating-rate liabilities much higher than the yield the Fed earns on its fixed-rate investments. Given the Fedís 200-to-1 leverage ratio, higher short-term rates quickly turned the Fedís previous profits into very large losses. The financial dynamics are exactly those of a giant 1980s Savings & Loan.

    To cover its current operating losses, the Fed prints new dollars as needed. In the longer run, the Fed plans to recover its accumulated operating losses by retaining its seigniorage profits in the future, when its massive interest rate mismatch will finally have rolled off. This may take a while, since the Fed reports $4 trillion in assets with more than 10 years to maturity (see H.4.1 Report, Section 2). During this time, the future seigniorage earnings that otherwise would have been remitted to the U.S. Treasury, reducing the need for federal tax revenues, will not be remitted. It turns out the Fedís gamble carried the risk that QE might generate taxpayer costs, costs that are being realized today. The Fedís QE gamble has turned into a buy-now pay later policyócosting taxpayers billions in 2023, 2024, and additional years to pay for its QE purchases.

    The Fedís 2023 messaging problem is to justify spending tens of billions of taxpayer dollars without getting congressional pre-approval for the costly gamble. Did the Fed explain to Congress the risk of the gamble? The Fed now tries to downplay this embarrassing predicament by arguing that it can use non-standard accounting to call its growing losses by a different name: a ďdeferred asset.Ē They are assuredly not an asset of any kind, but properly considered are a reduction in capital. The political effects of the losses are complicated by the fact that most of the Fedís exploding interest expense is paid to banks and other regulated financial institutions.

    When Congress passed legislation in 2006 authorizing the Fed to pay interest on bank reserve balances, Congress was under the impression that the Fed would pay interest on required reserves, and a much lower rate of interestóif anything at allóon bank excess reserve balances. Besides, until 2008, excess reserve balances were very small, so the Fedís interest expense on them was expected to be negligible.

    Surprise! Since 2008, in response to events unanticipated by Congress and the Fed, the Fed vastly expanded its balance sheet, funding Treasury and mortgage securities purchases using bank reserves and reverse repurchase agreements. The Fed now pays interest on $3.1 trillion in bank reserves and interest on $2.5 trillion in repo borrowings, both of which are paid at interest rates that now far exceed the yields the Fed earns on its fixed-rate securities holdings. The Fedís interest payments accrue to banks, primary dealers, mutual funds, and other financial institutions, while a significant share of the resulting losses will now be paid by current and future taxpayers.

    It was long assumed that the Fed would always make profits with a positive fiscal impact. In 2023 and going forward, the Fed will negatively impact fiscal policyósomething Congress never intended. Once Congress understands the current and potential future negative fiscal impact of the Fedís monetary policy gamble, will it agree that the ongoing billions in Fed losses are no big deal?

  3. #103


    ^^^ Incredible.

  4. #104


    Kill the FED. It's the only way out of the borrow/bust cycles that make them rich and us poor and the welfare/warfare state (go Ron Paul).

    Still no budget agreement? What's the Senator count right now?
    What's the Frequency, Kenneth?


  5. #105


    Quote Originally Posted by redraspberry View Post
    Kill the FED. It's the only way out of the borrow/bust cycles that make them rich and us poor and the welfare/warfare state (go Ron Paul).
    Ron Paul's Competing Currencies bill (that never passed) is the way forward IMO.


    A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step. -Lao Tzu

  6. #106


    The downing of Bear Stearns led to some unprecedented emergency moves. I wonder what emergency measures will be employed to save us all from the contagious crash of this country's 18th largest bank? What will the Fed "be forced" to do? If Bernanke were still in the house, the presses would already be rolling & a Paulson would be backing up a truck.

    Or will this time be different? Will the banking sector be left to burn? Will the US then default on sovereign debt? Will the Chinese then foreclose on that debt and take charge of the asset they have invested so heavily in? Will the Biden's new penthouse and estate in Shanghai be ready in time for the festivities? Will Gates have already moved into his new lair?

    I'm positioning for a Fed pivot. It's a roll of the dice, but that's the one I'm going to gamble on. DYODD
    Last edited by SilverPalm; 03-10-2023 at 10:27 PM.
    ďThe Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.Ē
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  7. #107

    Default Gold will destroy the FED

    Gold Will Destroy The Keynesian Fallacies

    Leaders of the Western democracies are unprepared to deal with forces that will end the fiat dollarís dominance as the preferred medium of international trade settlement, in place since the end of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971.

    The BRICS summit, currently taking place in Johannesburg, South Africa, is expected to include an agreement on a first step toward establishing an alternative international trade settlement system based on commodities, which would certainly include gold. Dozens of non-Western and even some Western affiliated nations are attending with great interest. Six new members have been invited to join Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South AfricaóArgentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

    Although the coming change may be characterized as one between the Western democracies and the BRICS nations, the real battle is one of ideas between Keynesian economic theory and gold. The winner will be gold.
    What's the Frequency, Kenneth?


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