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Thread: Trade war

  1. #1
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    Default Trade war

    https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/...-view-on-china

    A few points:

    ...Chinese products exported to USA are also made in Mexico.
    Chinese manufacturing has lots of competition, eg from Vietnam,
    Malaysia etc. China does not have a competitive advantage in
    manufacturing.

    ...The big losers in the trade war are China and Europe, as the Chinese
    products will have to be redirected from USA to Europe. The big winner
    in this trade war is Mexico.

    ...Chinese companies will have to absorb the tariffs, at a time when they
    already overloaded with debt. Mass closures in China might be expected.

    ...The swine flu has dramatically decreased the pork herds in China. That is
    why the soybean exports to China have been decreased.

    ...The trade wars with China were actually going on for years.

    ...Global tariffs averaged before 35 % so 25 % tariffs are not that unusual.

    ...There are bigger issues than trade war slowing the economy of China.

    ...There is a demographic crisis: birth rate decreased. The peak Chinese
    population will be reached in 2024.

  2. #2
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    It could be an earthquake.

    Three Chinese banks threatened to be kicked off from SWIFT.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...nancial-system

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by oak333 View Post
    It could be an earthquake.

    Three Chinese banks threatened to be kicked off from SWIFT.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...nancial-system
    It would seem as the Global Elite have set up the world economy to run like this, it's fitting it's running like it is
    Honor for US, Justice for Our Children! Now!

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by oak333 View Post
    It could be an earthquake.

    Three Chinese banks threatened to be kicked off from SWIFT.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...nancial-system
    Another one: EU has established an alternative channel of payments with Iran.
    USA is not pleased...and might consider kicking off some European banks from
    the SWIFT.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...-sanctions-now

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by oak333 View Post
    Another one: EU has established an alternative channel of payments with Iran.
    USA is not pleased...and might consider kicking off some European banks from
    the SWIFT.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...-sanctions-now
    A recurrent impositions of sanctions and hot-cold diplomacy is destructive ( for everybody involved ). In the end it forces the other who was a dumb follower to become an active rebel and federate with others who are in a similar situation.

    Russia knew it would always be " punished" so they already took the necessary steps to be independent.

    The chinese were bi- they had ( in their own interest ) to be and in and out for as long they could. The hot-cold war is a war of attrition. The chinese cannot take a clearcut attitude, but the neither the US, because China isn't the main culprit of its trade deficit; it are the main companies producing off-shore but selling in the uS who are and they are nowadays representing a huge " american" stock value.

    Hurting China too hard hurts also the "american" stockmarket, and it is not that easy to reindustrialize the US neither.
    One cannot just create new industries without skilled people and educating skilled people takes time. Even constructing Al machinery factories requires a lot of top skilled people. ( and to construct these machines too needs skilled people ).

    It has been my experience that even very high sophisticated mills have difficulties to be competitive with low-wage producers using outdated machinery.

    Moreover a lot of so called made in US goods are in reality made south of the Rio Grande.

    Sanctioning China will force both to be less aggressive, but the row will certainly have taught China " THE" lesson, which is to be less dependent on its US trade, and i think that a lot of others too will have that idea in mind.

    Golditiki2+++

  6. #6

    Default

    Same old same old..... Nothing resolved more talks....Just as many thought....


    Trump says he agreed with Xi to hold off on new tariffs and to let Huawei buy US products


    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/29/us-c...-in-osaka.html

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by Silver and Gold View Post
    Same old same old..... Nothing resolved more talks....Just as many thought....


    Trump says he agreed with Xi to hold off on new tariffs and to let Huawei buy US products


    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/29/us-c...-in-osaka.html

    The important G 20 ended like my father used to say: " They drank a glass, pissed a splash and everything stayed as it was." ...

    All options stay open to kid and be kidded as before, but on monday Wallstreet will decide who won the contest.

    Golditiki2+++.

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by golditiki2 View Post
    The important G 20 ended like my father used to say: " They drank a glass, pissed a splash and everything stayed as it was." ...

    All options stay open to kid and be kidded as before, but on monday Wallstreet will decide who won the contest.

    Golditiki2+++.


    Doesn't matter either way stocks up (Parabolic stage ). Plus trump will bend soon he doesn't want to loose the election if it carries on.



    It’s a temporary timeout’: Trump and Xi agree to negotiations, but offer no clear path to end US-China trade war

    “It’s a temporary time out,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, told CNBC. “I don’t see any path to a deal and we’re stuck with 25% tariffs on $250 billion of goods.”
    The issue of intellectual property remains a key sticking point despite the agreement to restart trade talks.
    “There is no point in escalating the trade war now and creating problems in the economy and losing the election, in which case China will be able to negotiate with a completely different president come 2021,” Ed Yardeni said of Trump’s position.
    The Eurasia Group, for its part, sees only a 45% chance that a trade deal gets done this year.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/29/g20-...trade-war.html

  9. #9

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    ithe actual mode is a " freeze mode", because , Trump has to keep wallstreet satisfied for electorial reasons. But it is a dangerous twilight position because it also gives the " other" the time to react and look to be less vulnerable to the next attack. Xi knows Trump will restart his attacks as soon he is assured the economy is "great".
    The Trump tactics are to force the other to accept to negociate and force the other to accept his conditions but always keep a door open for himself to renegociate the "deal" question of being the one who holds the reins in his hands. The Trump diplomacy is a never ending negociation. All deals on the road to the future are binding the other but leaving the door open for himself, at least that is his aim.

    Golditiki2+++

  10. #10

    Default

    China Warns Of Long Road Ahead For Deal With U.S. After Ice-Breaking Talks

    BEIJING/OSAKA (Reuters) - China and the United States will face a long road before they can reach a deal to end their bitter trade war, with more fights ahead likely, Chinese state media said after the two countries’ presidents held ice-breaking talks in Japan.

    The world’s two largest economies are in the midst of a bitter trade war, which has seen them level increasingly severe tariffs on each other’s imports.

    In a sign of significant progress in relations on Saturday, Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, agreed to a ceasefire and a return to talks.

    However, the official China Daily, an English-language daily often used by Beijing to put its message out to the rest of the world, warned while there was now a greater likelihood of reaching an agreement, there’s no guarantee there would be one.


    https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-06-3...ing-Talks.html

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