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Thread: You cannot ignore economic reality.

  1. #61
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    Jan 2017
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    The world is awash in debt.

    Complicating the problem, China secretly did a lot of lending to
    other countries. It is then difficult to assess the credit worthiness
    of these countries.

    It can hurt international equities.

    https://etfdb.com/relative-value-cha...onal-equities/

  2. #62

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    A key manufacturing gauge just saw its biggest one-month decline in 18 years


    The Empire State Manufacturing Index, which measures activity in the New York area, fell to -8.6 in June, from 17.8 in May.
    That was the biggest slide in the series history going back to 2001 and comes amid growing worries about the state of the broader U.S. economy.


    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/17/empi...-18-years.html

  3. #63

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    Quote Originally Posted by Silver and Gold View Post
    A key manufacturing gauge just saw its biggest one-month decline in 18 years


    The Empire State Manufacturing Index, which measures activity in the New York area, fell to -8.6 in June, from 17.8 in May.
    That was the biggest slide in the series history going back to 2001 and comes amid growing worries about the state of the broader U.S. economy.


    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/17/empi...-18-years.html
    it means Nothing though...
    just an Anomaly in the Best Economy in the History of the World!
    Right?
    Last edited by silverone; 06-17-2019 at 04:20 PM.
    x3

  4. #64

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverone View Post
    it means Nothing though...
    just an Anomaly in a the Best Economy in the History of the World!
    Right?


    Yes should drive dow to 30K ........LOL....The Fed has their back........All smoke and mirrors

  5. #65
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    Monetary wars have started. Mario Draghi of ECB cut rates and the Euro went down.
    Japan is on the same path. QE continues ....to infinity, as many experts have predicted.
    Competitive currency devaluation is taking place...ie currencies are all going down
    .....only at different speeds.

    That reminds me of an old joke with a question to Radio Erevan:
    Q: What shall we do in case of an atomic alarm ?
    A: Dress yourself in a white sheet and go slowly slowly to the cemetery.
    Q: Why slowly, slowly ?
    A: To avoid panic.

    It looks like the stock markets cannot survive without help from monetary stimulus.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...egun-they-have

  6. #66

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    Quote Originally Posted by oak333 View Post
    Monetary wars have started. Mario Draghi of ECB cut rates and the Euro went down.
    Japan is on the same path. QE continues ....to infinity, as many experts have predicted.
    Competitive currency devaluation is taking place...ie currencies are all going down
    .....only at different speeds.

    That reminds me of an old joke with a question to Radio Erevan:
    Q: What shall we do in case of an atomic alarm ?
    A: Dress yourself in a white sheet and go slowly slowly to the cemetery.
    Q: Why slowly, slowly ?
    A: To avoid panic.

    It looks like the stock markets cannot survive without help from monetary stimulus.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...egun-they-have

    European production activity isn't very positive. Politicians listen to third hand stories months after the facts have been observed by the second hand level, it means far too late and they react with doctrines which are contary to what they should have done already months ago.

    The main problem is the understanding of the debt problem. Indebtment means that you have already bought goods ( and probably consumed them already, you should produce in the future and buy in the future. It means that at a certain moment you do not NEED anymore new goods, thus production should halt for some time, but people have still to pay for what they have consumed and bought in the past. It means that on the one hand production has difficulties to sell its products and the indebted difficulties to earn the money they need to pay for their debts.

    The Eggheads now think that printing money will stimulate demand. The japanese experience shows us it to be a failure. Production is compared to demand overmeasured and most big companies are aware of that phenomenon, they prefer to buy back their shares instead of investing, because they know the new stuff will be sold with almost non existant margins.

    It is also a common phenomenon that falling prices do NOT incite people to buy People start buying when prices are already for some time on the rise. That is how bubbles grow.

    It means that under the circumstances stimulusattempts and ratecuts are wrong actions because they do not push the economic body to react the right way.
    Of course the reaction on rising rates is a reflux of the dow, but that is the sign the sleepy world gets awake. To sing moneylullabees to wallstreet is the wrong action, it is the effort of the wallstreetcompanies which should propell wallstreet, not the money poured into wallstreet.

    Rate cuts are keeping maybe Wallstreet high but the economy down. Increase the rates little by little and we will shake off the economical lethargy which is dumbing the whole world.

    Golditiki2+++

  7. #67
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
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    Quote Originally Posted by golditiki2 View Post
    European production activity isn't very positive. Politicians listen to third hand stories months after the facts have been observed by the second hand level, it means far too late and they react with doctrines which are contary to what they should have done already months ago.

    The main problem is the understanding of the debt problem. Indebtment means that you have already bought goods ( and probably consumed them already, you should produce in the future and buy in the future. It means that at a certain moment you do not NEED anymore new goods, thus production should halt for some time, but people have still to pay for what they have consumed and bought in the past. It means that on the one hand production has difficulties to sell its products and the indebted difficulties to earn the money they need to pay for their debts.

    The Eggheads now think that printing money will stimulate demand. The japanese experience shows us it to be a failure. Production is compared to demand overmeasured and most big companies are aware of that phenomenon, they prefer to buy back their shares instead of investing, because they know the new stuff will be sold with almost non existant margins.

    It is also a common phenomenon that falling prices do NOT incite people to buy People start buying when prices are already for some time on the rise. That is how bubbles grow.

    It means that under the circumstances stimulusattempts and ratecuts are wrong actions because they do not push the economic body to react the right way.
    Of course the reaction on rising rates is a reflux of the dow, but that is the sign the sleepy world gets awake. To sing moneylullabees to wallstreet is the wrong action, it is the effort of the wallstreetcompanies which should propell wallstreet, not the money poured into wallstreet.

    Rate cuts are keeping maybe Wallstreet high but the economy down. Increase the rates little by little and we will shake off the economical lethargy which is dumbing the whole world.

    Golditiki2+++
    F.A. Hayek outlined all you say in his writings. Road To Serfdom is a history and psychology expression more than an economic one. "Price Discovery" in a "smartly"** regulated free-market determines an economy. Of course, he wrote "Road" at a time when the legacy of gold/backed money played its role. Debt was a personal courtesy extended under limited control - by the merchant. We live in an "Interventionist" global economy that can get moreso.

    If we look only at advancements enabled by this intervention (i.e. living longer and better) one could say...see how good it works? But that ignores two problems. Aspects of it that are NOT working so well and an eventual (possible-to-probable) "collapse"(?).
    Last edited by Markpti; 06-19-2019 at 05:34 PM.
    Who are the righteous? ....Markpti

    What value did Burisma think to gain by hiring Hunter Biden as a Board member vs ALL other choices?

    Those who cannot articulate the other argument do not fully understand their own argument.

    "Much can be done by wise legislation and by resolute enforcement of the law. But still much more must be done
    by steady training of the individual - in conscience and character...." .......T. Roosevelt

  8. #68

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    First empire state now philly


    Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing gauge tumbles in June

    The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index fell to 0.3 in June from 16.6 in May.
    That was the index’s lowest read since February, when it hit zero.


    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/20/phil...s-in-june.html



    Its insane that the stock market thinks the fed lowering rates is a good thing. To me its a warning things are not as good as they portray.

    The lower rates won't help the economic down turn. When that happens panic will set in.. Get ready the storm clouds are rolling in.

    Under funded pensions needed the higher rates. It will get worse from here. If your living on a pension better get a back up plan fast.
    Last edited by Silver and Gold; 06-20-2019 at 08:33 AM.

  9. #69

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    They Are Calling This A “Bloodbath” For The $800 Billion Trucking Industry As U.S. Economic Activity Dramatically Declines

    The U.S. trucking industry has not experienced a downturn of this magnitude since the last financial crisis, and this is one of the clearest signs yet that the U.S. economy is steamrolling into a severe economic downturn.


    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...cally-declines

  10. #70

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    Quote Originally Posted by Silver and Gold View Post
    First empire state now philly


    Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing gauge tumbles in June

    The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index fell to 0.3 in June from 16.6 in May.
    That was the index’s lowest read since February, when it hit zero.


    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/20/phil...s-in-june.html



    Its insane that the stock market thinks the fed lowering rates is a good thing. To me its a warning things are not as good as they portray.

    The lower rates won't help the economic down turn. When that happens panic will set in.. Get ready the storm clouds are rolling in.

    Under funded pensions needed the higher rates. It will get worse from here. If your living on a pension better get a back up plan fast.
    There is a backup plan for failed pensions. It is called a Fed bailout. When US interest rates stay around the level that they are in Japan and Europe, then debt will be free. Not for you and me, but for those running the show, large corporations, ultra wealthy and the government. They can print to infinity and never have to pay anything on it. They will not abandon this until inflation cannot be hidden any further. Remember the Fed thinks inflation is virtually non existent and needs to be stoked.

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