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Thread: You cannot ignore economic reality.

  1. #611

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    Quote Originally Posted by LongDonSilver View Post
    US debt which just recently passed $33T is now at $33.6T and growing at $40B per day. Debt will be $34T in 45 days. Worse is the interest payment growth on this debt, which is now larger than the defense budget, and as more debt is added at higher and higher interest rates it will grow exponentially. But no worries, everything is fine and will be just peachy keen, until it isn't.
    Quote Originally Posted by silverone View Post
    ^100% complete Insanity

    And another agreement from me.



    Anybody have any ideas of a solution?

  2. #612

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    No matter how you cut it the deficit is increasing at 10.75% of GDP. Nominal GDP is growing at roughly 6% ( that is pretty good )
    I measured the figures for a full year 04/01/23 to 03/31/24 est. and just for 3 quarters they present below. (annulaized). Amazingly came to same 10.75%.

    That is a crazy 4.75% differential when there should be a negative differential or at a minimum 0 with real GDP near 3% and unemployment near record lows and no significant emergency funding necessary. This is using the latest figures from the Treasury themselves ( I believe these numbers are massaged to suit their interests so it is probably much worse).
    The patient is dead, without this massive borrowing over and above what the economy warrants then we would have had the significant recession. Some shrills may argue the contrary, but everyone knows this, especially the Fed and Government. That is why they are doing it. Not on my watch.

    Can you believe what the figures would be if a a recession or something significantly negative happens. I used a 28 trillion GDP and subtracted any net increase in the TGA (borrowed but not used)
    They are going to drive this thing until the tires blow, and always make sure they have a scapegoat to blame when it does. ( it will not be them).





    WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1] for the October December 2023 and January March 2024 quarters.

    During the October December 2023 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $776 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $750 billion.[2] The borrowing estimate is $76 billion lower than announced in July 2023, largely due to projections of higher receipts somewhat offset by higher outlays.[3]
    During the January March 2024 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $816 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $750 billion.[4]
    During the July September 2023 quarter, Treasury borrowed $1.010 trillion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $657 billion. In July 2023, Treasury estimated borrowing of $1.007 trillion and assumed an end-of-September cash balance of $650 billion. The increase in privately-held net market borrowing was $3 billion: changes across all major components were small.

  3. #613

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    brutus2 wrote ... well a lot of good stuff but the forum quote function is temperamental. And thank you brutus2 for saying it in such a way that those of us not in the financial sector can easily understand.


    Yes, shill is gonna shill. It's strange to me. First of all only about 5 people visit that thread so he has no audience, unless he is forwarding the conversations to his office pals and getting strokes from them. Actually that reason I would put in the more than 50% chance area.

    But total digression there. Mannarino as you probably know speaks about the debt based system in place requires, without fail, ever more debt to be created (I think he sometimes calls it "pulling money into the now".) He also talks about 'The debt market' as being (paraphrasing) at the center of it all... and all the other markets - stock, futures, forex, etc I presume - are driven by, or connected to, it. (he very recently has relayed that debt is being sold off and (I think he said) the central bank is buying the debt to prop the debt market up.

    Can you shed light on any of that? For instance, I don't get why the debt market MUST constantly get fed more debt. And is there a simple way to say what the debt market is?

    Thanks again for what you bring here!

  4. #614

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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot2k View Post
    brutus2 wrote ... well a lot of good stuff but the forum quote function is temperamental. And thank you brutus2 for saying it in such a way that those of us not in the financial sector can easily understand.


    Yes, shill is gonna shill. It's strange to me. First of all only about 5 people visit that thread so he has no audience, unless he is forwarding the conversations to his office pals and getting strokes from them. Actually that reason I would put in the more than 50% chance area.

    But total digression there. Mannarino as you probably know speaks about the debt based system in place requires, without fail, ever more debt to be created (I think he sometimes calls it "pulling money into the now".) He also talks about 'The debt market' as being (paraphrasing) at the center of it all... and all the other markets - stock, futures, forex, etc I presume - are driven by, or connected to, it. (he very recently has relayed that debt is being sold off and (I think he said) the central bank is buying the debt to prop the debt market up.

    Can you shed light on any of that? For instance, I don't get why the debt market MUST constantly get fed more debt. And is there a simple way to say what the debt market is?

    Thanks again for what you bring here!
    Yes an appropriate expression "pulling money into the now".
    Debt is money in the fiat system. If it ever shrinks so will all other significant markets ( liquidity). That is when there is ever the threat of it happening the Central banks pump like crazy.
    Why does it need to keep increasing (in this system). Because none of the debt is ever meant to be paid back. So in order to mimic a system that is growing one needs to keep expanding the debt.
    You need an ever increasing amount of snow to keep increasing the size of a snowball. You need an ever increasing amount of pizza for every additional inch of the pizza, etc.

    The below link is all you ever need to look at to see this phenomena and its acceleration.
    It is the only fair (to the Government/Fed) way of looking at the debt as it is proportional to the size of the economy so it incorporates and adjusts for inflation as well as actual growth via
    population or productivity. An example would be if you made 10,000 a year when you were 20 maybe you only had 1,000 of debt but at 50 you made 50,000 but had 3,000 of debt.
    It is not fair to say you had 3X more debt so you are worse off as you have 5X more income. This chart adjusts for this factor via a ratio.

    In a short summary, it is a chart from 1st quarter 1966 and I have put 2 more quarters on it to 1st quarter 2024 ( The government has given us their projections and that assumes clear skies, so lets assume that).

    From 1Q 1966 to 1Q 2008 or 42 out of the 58 years the Debt/GDP ratio went from 40% to 64% or about .41% a year increase
    From 1Q 2008 to 1Q 2024 or the last 16 years it went from 64% to 125% or about 3.8% a year.
    What is really scary ( now that it is Halloween) is that it is currently accelerating faster than even that figure even though (so we are told) the economy is sizzling and the unemployment rate is at historic lows. You can see that most of the increase in the past have come from the few brief periods of duress ( specifically financial crisis and Covid etc.).
    I am not aware of one (at least if you listen to the mainstream news) currently. The Harpies would try to make you believe all is normal, even though it is their own figures (dubious) we are using. (may be even worse).

    I hope this helps. Just my take. Many much smarter people than I, including Mannarino, would agree with all or most of this. I would be so bold as saying so do the top people in the Government and Fed, but you will never hear it from them. In a fiat system, confidence is crucial.



    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S

  5. #615

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    brutus2, thanks for the great information in your response. I would wager that there are others besides myself who will be better off in understanding debt, and other things financial, as a result.

    I've read it once and it is written plainly, even so I will need to read it at least once or twice more to understand enough to reply in context or ask a follow up question. I have always found the inner workings of money, and fiat, hazy and seemingly conceptually difficult. But at this late date in life I am catching on poco a poco (aka little by little).


    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    Yes an appropriate expression "pulling money into the now".
    Debt is money in the fiat system. If it ever shrinks so will all other significant markets ( liquidity). That is when there is ever the threat of it happening the Central banks pump like crazy.
    Why does it need to keep increasing (in this system). Because none of the debt is ever meant to be paid back. So in order to mimic a system that is growing one needs to keep expanding the debt.
    You need an ever increasing amount of snow to keep increasing the size of a snowball. You need an ever increasing amount of pizza for every additional inch of the pizza, etc.

    The below link is all you ever need to look at to see this phenomena and its acceleration.
    It is the only fair (to the Government/Fed) way of looking at the debt as it is proportional to the size of the economy so it incorporates and adjusts for inflation as well as actual growth via
    population or productivity. An example would be if you made 10,000 a year when you were 20 maybe you only had 1,000 of debt but at 50 you made 50,000 but had 3,000 of debt.
    It is not fair to say you had 3X more debt so you are worse off as you have 5X more income. This chart adjusts for this factor via a ratio.

    In a short summary, it is a chart from 1st quarter 1966 and I have put 2 more quarters on it to 1st quarter 2024 ( The government has given us their projections and that assumes clear skies, so lets assume that).

    From 1Q 1966 to 1Q 2008 or 42 out of the 58 years the Debt/GDP ratio went from 40% to 64% or about .41% a year increase
    From 1Q 2008 to 1Q 2024 or the last 16 years it went from 64% to 125% or about 3.8% a year.
    What is really scary ( now that it is Halloween) is that it is currently accelerating faster than even that figure even though (so we are told) the economy is sizzling and the unemployment rate is at historic lows. You can see that most of the increase in the past have come from the few brief periods of duress ( specifically financial crisis and Covid etc.).
    I am not aware of one (at least if you listen to the mainstream news) currently. The Harpies would try to make you believe all is normal, even though it is their own figures (dubious) we are using. (may be even worse).

    I hope this helps. Just my take. Many much smarter people than I, including Mannarino, would agree with all or most of this. I would be so bold as saying so do the top people in the Government and Fed, but you will never hear it from them. In a fiat system, confidence is crucial.



    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S

  6. #616
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    Jan 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot2k View Post
    And another agreement from me.



    Anybody have any ideas of a solution?
    A dog I had once ran away. He didn't come back. He could not come back. It was too late.
    Who are the righteous? ....Markpti

    What value did Burisma think to gain by hiring Hunter Biden as a Board member vs ALL other choices?

    Those who cannot articulate the other argument do not fully understand their own argument.

    "Much can be done by wise legislation and by resolute enforcement of the law. But still much more must be done
    by steady training of the individual - in conscience and character...." .......T. Roosevelt

  7. #617

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    Quote Originally Posted by Markpti View Post
    A dog I had once ran away. He didn't come back. He could not come back. It was too late.
    Sounds about right.

  8. #618

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    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    Sounds about right.
    ... and I've learned from you guys it is all by design.

    If it was simply a monetary or currency system that skimmed off the top, well that would be bad enough. It seems though it is the thing that is propping up the criminal organization that is running the planet. Ok enough of that last part from me, erase it from memory if you want. It's late, time for sleep.

  9. #619

    Default

    This all falls under the header "things I cannot change."
    There are too many moving parts I have no hope of understanding or changing.
    I have to do what is right in God's eyes as best I can.
    I have to trust God to make this right.

    God, grant us the grace to accept with serenity
    the things that cannot be changed,
    The courage and power to change
    things which should be changed,
    and the Wisdom to distinguish one from the other.
    Living each day one at a time,
    To enjoy each moment one at a time,
    Accepting hardship as a pathway to peace,
    Taking, as Jesus did,
    This sinful world as it is,
    Not as I would have it,
    Trusting that You will make all things right,
    If I surrender to Your will,
    So that I may be reasonably happy in this life,
    And supremely happy with You forever in the next.
    Amen.
    Now there's no more oak oppression
    They passed a noble law
    Now the trees are all kept equal
    By hatchet, axe and saw.

    I will not comply.

    The Tea Party... quietly plotting to take over the world,
    and leave you the hell alone!

  10. #620

    Default

    Seems like the numbers are happy days for them, the club et al. As you point out it shows not much doing in terms of debt to gdp until 1985. It was just slogging along at under 40%. I mean what fun is that if you are the one printing all, and spending much or most, of it?

    But yes the days are pleasant when not only is the gdp is up but you now get 125% of the magic juice. And cherry on the top... well the top is covered with them... is you never have to pay it back. Bring it, where do I sign up?

    I may still be digesting your post brutus2 but the second read did have more light. Thanks again.




    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    Yes an appropriate expression "pulling money into the now".
    Debt is money in the fiat system. If it ever shrinks so will all other significant markets ( liquidity). That is when there is ever the threat of it happening the Central banks pump like crazy.
    Why does it need to keep increasing (in this system). Because none of the debt is ever meant to be paid back. So in order to mimic a system that is growing one needs to keep expanding the debt.
    You need an ever increasing amount of snow to keep increasing the size of a snowball. You need an ever increasing amount of pizza for every additional inch of the pizza, etc.

    The below link is all you ever need to look at to see this phenomena and its acceleration.
    It is the only fair (to the Government/Fed) way of looking at the debt as it is proportional to the size of the economy so it incorporates and adjusts for inflation as well as actual growth via
    population or productivity. An example would be if you made 10,000 a year when you were 20 maybe you only had 1,000 of debt but at 50 you made 50,000 but had 3,000 of debt.
    It is not fair to say you had 3X more debt so you are worse off as you have 5X more income. This chart adjusts for this factor via a ratio.

    In a short summary, it is a chart from 1st quarter 1966 and I have put 2 more quarters on it to 1st quarter 2024 ( The government has given us their projections and that assumes clear skies, so lets assume that).

    From 1Q 1966 to 1Q 2008 or 42 out of the 58 years the Debt/GDP ratio went from 40% to 64% or about .41% a year increase
    From 1Q 2008 to 1Q 2024 or the last 16 years it went from 64% to 125% or about 3.8% a year.
    What is really scary ( now that it is Halloween) is that it is currently accelerating faster than even that figure even though (so we are told) the economy is sizzling and the unemployment rate is at historic lows. You can see that most of the increase in the past have come from the few brief periods of duress ( specifically financial crisis and Covid etc.).
    I am not aware of one (at least if you listen to the mainstream news) currently. The Harpies would try to make you believe all is normal, even though it is their own figures (dubious) we are using. (may be even worse).

    I hope this helps. Just my take. Many much smarter people than I, including Mannarino, would agree with all or most of this. I would be so bold as saying so do the top people in the Government and Fed, but you will never hear it from them. In a fiat system, confidence is crucial.



    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S

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