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Amazingly the defense vendor account is actually lower this 10 months than last 10 months even though the deficit has doubled.Originally Posted by ynot2k
in 2022 it was 332 billion up to 08/09 and this period is 323 billion. Very hard to believe it is less as this period is 100% Ukraine conflict while other period is only 50%.
Makes me wonder if the deficit is far greater.
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Question:
What if the reason a credit crunch has not happened yet is that all the participants thought, like myself, that the Fed would be forced to pivot significantly in 2023
and lower rates and quit QT. ( almost happened in March)
Maybe like someone going without water in the desert, they can go on thinking they can get out in 3 days, but would give up if they finally realized it would be 7 days.
(I am talking about the banking system)
What happens, if 6 months from now, the rates are still the same along the curve and inflation, as measured by CPI is the same, or yikes, higher ( all possible)
Also if the economy is still, more or less, doing what it is doing, at least by their numbers.
There is a lot of refinancing to do in 2024 and non payments on consumer and commercial loans can only be renegotiated or extended to a point.
Also the housing market can only stay frozen for so long. What happens when all those market participants, who were so sure that the problem of high rates would not be there in 2024, have it staring them right in the face.
I think I know.
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Same here and my thought is the sellers blink. If mortgage rates stay the same or higher, and cost of living stays the same or higher, and wages stay as behind or more... the buyers are not going to break the market to the upside. They are waiting for something and have been waiting for quite a while. Without change for the good to the things I mentioned their going to either stop looking or keep waiting.
The sellers are a different story with parts of naivety, greed, and fear keeping them from breakiing. But they will blink and the break will be to the downside.
But I will use the same disclaimer as Stephen Gardner did in one of his videos "But what do I know I'm just a guy on youtube" ok,I'm not on youtube but you get the idea.
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A perspective on economic reality that sees truth in Say's Law & fiction in MMT.
https://mises.org/wire/dollar-hegemo...itical-changes
This source seems to think that the Brics gold backed currency is going to take off soon & force the US to pony up in kind or get spanked. I don't see this as likely.
“The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.
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I wonder who he has in mind to be called?
"...At that point, the US will start losing friends until it, too, reluctantly regains its senses and returns to gold, honest dealing, and honest, respectful statesmanship. America will need new leaders for this task. They are there, waiting to be called by the people. The US and the world will be a much better place as a result..."
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As long as the FED is in charge we won't have gold backed currency. We do have the gold to end the FED it is said.
What's the Frequency, Kenneth?
432Hz
Moderator
brazil, russia, india, china, and saudi have central banks. I hadn't thought of that aspect until your post Red.
You gave an interesting proposition.
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CBDC will be used before they go to gold, otherwise gold explodes up and out of control, that won't help anyone, never did, then gold didn't circulate, it was hoarded, much like it is now. Asian countries are known for writing down their currencies overnight, so the people have to protect themselves.
Still, a new economic reality is dawning for those who were born after the 70's, they maybe thought life was easy, but it's still better for those who do subsistence living and know that just getting by is all they know.
This 4th wave of feminism starting in 2012 is settling in quite nicely as the fed is now borrowing up to a trillion a quarter, the question is, what are they doing with it? How can you possibly blow that many dollars in a quarter??? And, are we getting anything in return for it, say like productivity? Mostly no as it simply turns into inflation. Covid taught people to be less productive and even more reliant on government and it shows.
Well.. it mostly goes to three things. Mandatory spending (I have to spend money, shop until you drop). Interest debt spending (shop now, pay later).
Discretionary spending (social programs - as in why work - - instead and/or war/argue/fuss with the neighbors, compete against one another).
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What's the Frequency, Kenneth?
432Hz
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