You cannot ignore economic reality.

[LongDonSilver]

Kingston! Were you visiting with Gerald Celente?

[Markpti]

Kingston! Were you visiting with Gerald Celente?

Did not know he lived there. No. Just a brief vacation exploring a bit.

[ynot2k]

Looks like I am not hitting road until morning so a few more posts before then

Here is a great one about the US housing market, chalk full of very interesting data, charts, and analysis that is easy to understand.

It is an hour but any part of it is full of info.

It is from Wealthion. This one is trying to understand and analyze why housing market is only down nationally 1% and why it should be down far more to bring into equilibrium.
Basic premise is that it often takes a lot longer than it should for the market to rationalize pricing based on current conditions. 2006-2008 period prime example.

It looks at residential - nationally and in select areas.
Commercial
Air bnb
Rental both private and large companies.
Glut of new residential multi unit buildings being completed very soon.
Why there is a lack of demand and a lack of supply for single family homes ( basically a frozen market vs normal )
Home Builders and new vs existing ( home builders have filled void by offering 15% discounts and in some cases paid down mortgage financing. )
Valuations - historically - income basis and capex basis and rent vs ownership basis.
Trend in past 12 months and past 1 month and forecast for next 6 months.
Triggers for very negative results and possible but not likely events that would mitigate any negatives.
Lots more. You may find it useful Ynot2k if you have the time, even parts of it if not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dJ7NLNiQGs

brutus2, thanks for the video recommendation. I watched it today. Yeah, well, you know I have heard it said here something that I took away from the video: "gravity happens". <<-- I know that's been a difficult thing for a certain bot to comprehend. I think those 9000 chipsets are probably at the end of there useful life.

I did find the airbnb points to be interesting. I already have concerns about how the different vacation markets will weather a large decline in the economy. It's something I don't ignore although short of selling the place I just built, there is not a lot I can do at the moment.

I'm going to share the video with my daughter whom I think, along with her partner/boyfriend/future-husband, is about to make a huge mistake in buying a very costly home due to moving from Denver to Dallas for his work. She won't listen to me because of course she, at 28, knows much more than I do at my age. Kind of like a certain young trollbot knows so much more than the likes of you, MarkPTI, and many other smart experienced people on this board not to even mention the Mannarinos, Celentes, Caseys, with huge followings.

[brutus2]

brutus2, thanks for the video recommendation. I watched it today. Yeah, well, you know I have heard it said here something that I took away from the video: "gravity happens". <<-- I know that's been a difficult thing for a certain bot to comprehend. I think those 9000 chipsets are probably at the end of there useful life.

I did find the airbnb points to be interesting. I already have concerns about how the different vacation markets will weather a large decline in the economy. It's something I don't ignore although short of selling the place I just built, there is not a lot I can do at the moment.

I'm going to share the video with my daughter whom I think, along with her partner/boyfriend/future-husband, is about to make a huge mistake in buying a very costly home due to moving from Denver to Dallas for his work. She won't listen to me because of course she, at 28, knows much more than I do at my age. Kind of like a certain young trollbot knows so much more than the likes of you, MarkPTI, and many other smart experienced people on this board not to even mention the Mannarinos, Celentes, Caseys, with huge followings.

My pleasure Ynot2k. I knew you were involved in the business.

My visits into the so called hinterlands, visiting folk festivals, and the like, are truly reinforcing to the spirit. ( another excursion in a couple days. )
The music is great ( my area has always been noted for talented song writers and musicians), but the knowledge that not far from urban areas reside a large and latent force of spiritual and common sense and truly community/neighbour/family and charitable minded populace, is truly satisfying and reinforcing.

[ynot2k]

...My visits into the so called hinterlands, visiting folk festivals, and the like, are truly reinforcing to the spirit. ( another excursion in a couple days. )
The music is great ( my area has always been noted for talented song writers and musicians), but the knowledge that not far from urban areas reside a large and latent force of spiritual and common sense and truly community/neighbour/family and charitable minded populace, is truly satisfying and reinforcing.

Wonderful to hear!

[brutus2]

A very interesting statistic - one by the US government/treasury's own hand

The first 2 quarters of 2022 were unofficially a recession - both quarters were negative GDP - not raining until we say it is

That was January to June 2022.

Now for the 12 months up to and including June 2022 the Treasury reported a fiscal deficit of roughly 900 billion.
For the 12 months after that it reported a fiscal deficit of roughly 2,260 billion. That is an incredible increase ( I must have missed the catastrophe). That includes the last months fiasco of
June 2023 of 228 billion.

How is that possible? Surely July 2021 to June 2022 required more fiscal support than the next year much further removed from all the programs to help off set the pandemic.
How about all the workers employed supposedly during that time, the reduction in UI, the greater tax receipts, corporations making money etc etc etc.

I have heard endless reasons why a sharp recession has not come by now, many of them make a lot of sense, but this one is obvious. ( Below is government think after June 2022)

Oh Oh, we have a recession that we do not want to call a recession so lets juice up the free stuff and let er rip. After all the government is nearly 40% of the total US economy ( how capitalistic) - that is non war or emergency. Presto we go from about 4% of GDP to around 9% deficit Sure solves that problem. If you consider at least 75% of budget is rapidly consumed then without this increase in G spending the US would have been in a 1 1/2 year recession. ( GDP only averaged 2% at best - and that would be 5% differential x 75% or 3.75% negative or 1.75% negative, and I am being kind.

One thing we can all agree on, that there is nothing more stimulating to the economy than deficit spending. It is money going into the hands of normal people and businesses and corporations and running through the economy ( for the most part) Money for nothing except a bill for your progeny or higher inflation than would be otherwise.

There are many other interesting theories, Massive historic M2 as % of GDP still in system, but dwindling, Public and corporations extending their borrowings/terms in last few years before rate rises to take advantage of historic low rates thus rate hikes taking longer to take effect, etc etc etc.

This one is the obvious one to me ( government stimulus ) and no the rate increases to the treasury are only a relatively small part of the total increase- yet. They will be a much larger part soon enough.

I am shocked this is not front and centre why a significant recession has been mitigated/delayed. Or am I?

That is why I am always cautious. All governments have a lot of levers they can pull, regardless of future consequences. And if all else fails, they can always have their paid media spinsters
create blame on someone else. Or they can simply retire on their ill got gains and do speaking engagements, write books, and sit on boards.

[ynot2k]

brutus2 again with the logic backed information.

It is challenging for me to grok the numbers (percentages, $$ amounts, etc) but the following I can understand like walking on grass:

"All governments have a lot of levers they can pull, regardless of future consequences. And if all else fails, they can always have their paid media spinsters create blame on someone else. Or they can simply retire on their ill got gains and do speaking engagements, write books, and sit on boards. "

Yes, we are in a strange land, aren't we?

[LongDonSilver]

Did not know he lived there. No. Just a brief vacation exploring a bit.

Yeah, that's he home city these days and I think he was holding a peace conference.

[LongDonSilver]

brutus2 again with the logic backed information.

It is challenging for me to grok the numbers (percentages, $$ amounts, etc) but the following I can understand like walking on grass:

"All governments have a lot of levers they can pull, regardless of future consequences. And if all else fails, they can always have their paid media spinsters create blame on someone else. Or they can simply retire on their ill got gains and do speaking engagements, write books, and sit on boards. "

Yes, we are in a strange land, aren't we?

Pol's are trying to keep all the balls in the air until after the next election. After that it will be up to the next guy to figure out how to keep the place from burning down while they blame him for all the bad stuff that's about to happen.

[ynot2k]

Pol's are trying to keep all the balls in the air until after the next election. After that it will be up to the next guy to figure out how to keep the place from burning down while they blame him for all the bad stuff that's about to happen.

Yes LongDonSilver that states exactly how they operate.