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Thread: You cannot ignore economic reality.

  1. #531

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    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/k...ed-by-drought/

    It seems that food price inflation will be blamed on the weather. All that money printing had nothing to do with it. Not one bit.
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  2. #532

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    "Thinking we will avoid a recession is delusional"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vkGjSybTLg

    Lots of points in video but here are some more from me.

    Shiller P/E ratio is above 30 - bad things happen to markets when this is the case
    Bull markets do not start at plus 30 shiller P/E`s.

    The longer rates continue to stay at current levels the more inflationary impact that these rates will exert, if nothing breaks.The whole reason that the Fed increases rates aggressively is to make something break. If nothing breaks, then the Fed will keep these rates high as core inflation, and probably inflation as defined by the CPI,will stay in the 3% to 5% range. June reading will probably be the low point due to base effect. Second half will see acceleration in the yearly print just due to base effect. If nothing breaks then the Fed will continue on with current rates and this will add to inflation and eventually the refinancing wall of late 2024
    for commercial mortgages and zombie companies as well as others will be hit. One way or the other a recession will happen. The longer it takes, the worse it will be.

    Here is another reason. 5 straight quarters of negative productivity. This has never happened since the end of second world war.
    Another is the mother of all inverted yield curves.
    Another is complacency as measured by the VIX even with all the interest rate increases and market valuations.


    There are just endless reasons to anticipate a significant recession As for all the pundits saying more and more things are starting to look a lot better and a new hot fad has started ( AI) This is a probably the biggest indicator that they will not. ( look no further than 2007/2008).

  3. #533

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    (emphasis added)
    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    ...a new hot fad has started ( AI) This is a probably the biggest indicator that they will not. ( look no further than 2007/2008).
    As I'm sure you remember we can also look at circa ~2000... this (that) time it's different!

    I would imagine that for anyone who was say 11 or 12 years old (a child!) in the dot com bust and maybe 20ish in 2008 (still wet behind the ears) it is difficult to have real world knowledge - much less real world experience - in those events. And no, learning about them in a (most likely) liberal university economics or business curriculum is not the same.

    I googled your 5 qtrs negative productivity and surprise surprise, workers just are not as productive when working from home as they WERE when the boss' eyes were on them in the office all day long.


    Nice to see you back brutus2. Either time flies or you are just taking a few minutes to check in while tooling around the country side.

  4. #534

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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot2k View Post
    (emphasis added)


    As I'm sure you remember we can also look at circa ~2000... this (that) time it's different!

    I would imagine that for anyone who was say 11 or 12 years old (a child!) in the dot com bust and maybe 20ish in 2008 (still wet behind the ears) it is difficult to have real world knowledge - much less real world experience - in those events. And no, learning about them in a (most likely) liberal university economics or business curriculum is not the same.

    I googled your 5 qtrs negative productivity and surprise surprise, workers just are not as productive when working from home as they WERE when the boss' eyes were on them in the office all day long.


    Nice to see you back brutus2. Either time flies or you are just taking a few minutes to check in while tooling around the country side.
    I come out of the woods every now and then. After all it is July 1st.

  5. #535

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    Quote Originally Posted by SilverPalm View Post
    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/k...ed-by-drought/

    It seems that food price inflation will be blamed on the weather. All that money printing had nothing to do with it. Not one bit.
    The art of the practice of politics and law, is not presenting or discerning the truth, but in spinning events or information in such a way as to manufacture consent.

    That is why there are so many lawyers in politics.

  6. #536

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    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    ...After all it is July 1st.
    And now I got to learn something new. Happy Canada Day!

  7. #537

    Default

    https://www.leparisien.fr/economie/u...KSA6FMCO6Q.php
    Economic realities in France are becoming a bitter pill.

    An interpretation in English
    https://rmx.news/france/french-riots...ion-in-damage/
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  8. #538

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ynot2k View Post
    And now I got to learn something new. Happy Canada Day!
    Ah yes, my wife and I were in Montreal for the Canada Day parade back in 1984. Belated happy birthday for our northern neighbors.
    Do your own due diligence

    I stand united with my friends & family in Canada who seek freedom.

  9. #539
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    13,297

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    Quote Originally Posted by LongDonSilver View Post
    Ah yes, my wife and I were in Montreal for the Canada Day parade back in 1984. Belated happy birthday for our northern neighbors.
    Great city is Montreal. I love "Old Montreal" so much. If you ever pass through the Rochester, NY area, dinner is on us. Same to you all.
    Who are the righteous? ....Markpti

    What value did Burisma think to gain by hiring Hunter Biden as a Board member vs ALL other choices?

    Those who cannot articulate the other argument do not fully understand their own argument.

    "Much can be done by wise legislation and by resolute enforcement of the law. But still much more must be done
    by steady training of the individual - in conscience and character...." .......T. Roosevelt

  10. #540

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    Quote Originally Posted by Markpti View Post
    Great city is Montreal. I love "Old Montreal" so much. If you ever pass through the Rochester, NY area, dinner is on us. Same to you all.
    Spent couple days at Piseco Lake on way through NY State, couple weeks ago. I did go by Rochester on the I 90
    Might have taken you up on that offer if i had known.

    I remember going to Montreal Expo games in my early 20`s. 4 guys would pile into the most reliable car of the bunch ( not saying much) - ( drive for 13 hours - party for 36 hours while seeing 2 games on weekend and then driving 13 more hours. The hard part was 4 of us all had to get the Friday off. Montreal was definitely a fun town and at that time, far ahead of its peers
    in that dpt.

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