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Thread: You cannot ignore economic reality.

  1. #511
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    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    Totally agree with all your points Goldtiki2. Especially about the validity of the government inputs being suspect, due to them having an obvious vested interest in its measurement.

    It does not take a very high inflation rate( as measured by CPI over a few decades) to make everything you say absolutely true.
    My problem with CPI relativity is all the people I know (including myself) only relate to and care about and are most affected by:
    1) Price of Food
    2) Price of delivered energy to the home
    3) Cost of rents and mortgage debt
    4) Cost of goods to maintain homes and vehicles (I.E. Volvo (I own 3) dealership service rates are up to 140 dollars per hour). (the replacement of a BCM module (one hour job) quoted at $1,500.). Go figger! (BCMs range for about $200.) Still trying to figure out the disconnected gap on this one).
    5) Cost of transportation (auto purchases and operating)

    If these isolated "needs/expenses" register a "higher" proportion of cost increase than the overall CPI suggests, the CPI is irrelevant to me and I sense being used as a sales tool by the administration to sell me on the idea that my idea is wrong and their's is right.

    Kind of like when Yellen says default could lead to wide-spread suffering. What does that mean for what wealth class?

    For those on fixed-incomes and those employed in service and hospitality jobs, it's likely different for those in high-end sectors.
    Who are the righteous? ....Markpti

    What value did Burisma think to gain by hiring Hunter Biden as a Board member vs ALL other choices?

    Those who cannot articulate the other argument do not fully understand their own argument.

    "Much can be done by wise legislation and by resolute enforcement of the law. But still much more must be done
    by steady training of the individual - in conscience and character...." .......T. Roosevelt

  2. #512

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    Quote Originally Posted by Markpti View Post
    My problem with CPI relativity is all the people I know (including myself) only relate to and care about and are most affected by:
    1) Price of Food
    2) Price of delivered energy to the home
    3) Cost of rents and mortgage debt
    4) Cost of goods to maintain homes and vehicles (I.E. Volvo (I own 3) dealership service rates are up to 140 dollars per hour). (the replacement of a BCM module (one hour job) quoted at $1,500.). Go figger! (BCMs range for about $200.) Still trying to figure out the disconnected gap on this one).
    5) Cost of transportation (auto purchases and operating)

    If these isolated "needs/expenses" register a "higher" proportion of cost increase than the overall CPI suggests, the CPI is irrelevant to me and I sense being used as a sales tool by the administration to sell me on the idea that my idea is wrong and their's is right.

    Kind of like when Yellen says default could lead to wide-spread suffering. What does that mean for what wealth class?

    For those on fixed-incomes and those employed in service and hospitality jobs, it's likely different for those in high-end sectors.
    Agreed Markpti. Also there is the other side of the equation. I would not care if 'MY' inflation was 6% a year if my after tax income was going up at least that.
    Of course, having empathy, I would want most others in the same boat.

    This income might be derived from wages, pensions, interest, rent or REALIZED capital gains, business income etc. For some it would include government subsidies.

    My suspicion is that for 90% of people are on the wrong side of the ledger. Especially if one used a more broad and true and relevant definition of inflation.

    Why would anyone think differently when a small subset of that 10% is making all the rules.

  3. #513

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    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    ...Why would anyone think differently when a small subset of that 10% is making all the rules.
    I began a reply in answer to your question but decided to avoid possibly hijacking this discussion so placed it here instead https://gold-forum.kitco.com/showthr...30#post2792030

  4. #514

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    Only 94.6 billion left in the Feds cookie jar. At a net withdrawal rate of approximately 50 billion a week, should be all gone by end of this month.
    The withdrawal rate for the first 2 weeks of may was actually much higher than this.

    You can count on there being a bipartisan agreement by then, to lift the debt ceiling, per usual.
    Contrary to that being market positive, like the market seems to be anticipating, it should be negative, as this source of liquidity will actually reverse, as the Treasury
    will need to refill the cookie jar and pay some accounts it was probably deferring payments on, etc.

    If we have a significant recession this year, either via the economy rolling over, or a credit event, it will be very bad for the future of the Treasury`s solvency under current procedures.

    Perhaps that is where the 80,000+ or so new IRS agent additions come in. Nice contingency planning - ha ha ha .


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzLMmfDACJ0

  5. #515

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    ^^^ I will watch the entire video later, the first some minutes were intriguing.


    The following link is 5 years old, but the information contained has not changed. At least significantly for the better although it likely has worsened - meaning even more billions or trillions can not be accounted for.

    https://www.city-journal.org/article...-missing-money

  6. #516

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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot2k View Post
    ^^^ I will watch the entire video later, the first some minutes were intriguing.


    The following link is 5 years old, but the information contained has not changed. At least significantly for the better although it likely has worsened - meaning even more billions or trillions can not be accounted for.

    https://www.city-journal.org/article...-missing-money
    "By 2015, the amount reported missing by the Office of the Inspector General had increased to $6.5 trillion—and that was just for the army. Using public data from federal databases, Mark Skidmore, a professor of economics at Michigan State University, found that $21 trillion in unsupported adjustments had been reported by the Defense and Housing and Urban Development departments between 1998 and 2015. That’s about $65,000 for every American. "

    Maybe I am missing something but that sounds like an awful high number even for a full on board government skeptic like me.

    I would doubt that the entire budget for both of these departments over that 17 year period came anywhere near that figure. Surely some significant portion of it must have been
    legit and documented. In my world, even a figure of 1 trillion over that period would be outrageous and cause for internal audits and dismissals and potential charges.

  7. #517

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    [QUOTE=brutus2;2792096]Only 94.6 billion left in the Feds cookie jar. At a net withdrawal rate of approximately 50 billion a week, should be all gone by end of this month.
    The withdrawal rate for the first 2 weeks of may was actually much higher than this.

    Wow a 27 billion draw down just yesterday in the Cookie Jar ( TGA/ Treasury operating cash account)
    Down to 68 billion. Never underestimate the governments ability to spend faster than they can collect.

    Biden and McCarthy better start holding hands real soon.
    Probably end of next week, to make it close, like in the movies.
    If not, I am sure Dems can find a loophole, or just instruct their familiar Joe, to Executive decree it.
    The US Constitution is so passe now.

  8. #518

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    quote no work.. but brutus2 replied about the trillions...


    I remember when the 21 trillion number came up some years back. I was shocked and looked a bit deeper. From what I could tell the figure that the students came up with was considered accurate by establishment sources. So maybe that means that it is not accurate

  9. #519

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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot2k View Post
    quote no work.. but brutus2 replied about the trillions...


    I remember when the 21 trillion number came up some years back. I was shocked and looked a bit deeper. From what I could tell the figure that the students came up with was considered accurate by establishment sources. So maybe that means that it is not accurate
    we never believe the truth, nobody could believe the holocaust really took place when it happened. it was considered as a propagandamove from opponents. The biggest lies are the easiest to be considered as impossible.

    Golditiki2+++

  10. #520

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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot2k View Post
    quote no work.. but brutus2 replied about the trillions...


    I remember when the 21 trillion number came up some years back. I was shocked and looked a bit deeper. From what I could tell the figure that the students came up with was considered accurate by establishment sources. So maybe that means that it is not accurate
    I am not saying it is inaccurate or not, simply stating it does not make sense without additional information or clarification. Just me being me.
    My reasoning is this. Over the 17 year period or so stated, the total Defense Vendor budget was around 6.8 trillion and the total Housing and Urban Development was 1 .4 trillion.

    ( I approximated using Treasury from 2010, but I am guessing those figures are on high side. )

    So if you owned a business and your accountant came to you and said I think your sales staff is fudging their expense accounts by 10 million dollars when you only paid them 4 million,
    you might ask your accountant how that could be. It does not matter if they had no evidence, or took 100% of that 4 million and put it in their pockets. You would still have that question.
    How did you arrive at 10 million in fraud?

    Obviously some of the money would have been legit or had receipts so the figure shrinks even more.

    Perhaps there is a perfectly sound argument to back up the study.

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