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Thread: You cannot ignore economic reality.

  1. #501

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverone View Post
    so Just print up More money Right Brutus?
    Hope you Don't Mind me dropping This Here: https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2023...udder-lag.html

    Great article, as usual, Silverone. Encapsulates many of my opinions and thoughts about what is going on and what is to come.

    " For years the Financial-Political Complex ignored the growing weakness on Main Street and focused on rising GDP numbers that were driven by government deficit spending. Addressing this now is like trying to turn a battleship around in a lake the size of a bathtub, nearly impossible. "

  2. #502

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    Wealthion continues to have 1 hour talks with an endless stream of great guests.
    A majority of them are very data focused and credentialed and market driven
    Most of them see a lot of pain in the near term horizon.
    One from this week with Stephanie Pomboy.

    If you look at the 31 minute mark to 35 minute mark you will see many of the criticisms of the BLS job report,
    including a great graph supporting my contention that the withheld employment tax remittances is a far superior indicator
    of employment conditions ( it is terrible as I had reported, and this graph shows it starkly. )

    She also advises that the NFIB - survey from small business is at its lowest level in 10 years ( just came out)

    Just the usual - small business and the worker getting shafted.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oM69lt1cLqQ

  3. #503

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    Watch out for Fed and mainstream media crowing about the end of inflation ( as measured by CPI) in next few months.
    You can see below that May and June represented 2.1% of the current 4.9% inflation.
    If you assume a constant .3% per month inflation in next 12 months ( reasonable considering this month was .4%) then the lowest inflation will go is June at 3.4% and then it will bounce between there and 3.8% for next 12 months ( hardly 2% a year). This rate will be compounding on the much higher rates of the past 2 years.
    Just a paltry 3.6% inflation means everything doubles in price in 20 years. No small thing if a significant portion of your income is fixed.


    Chart 1. One-month percent change in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), seasonally adjusted, Apr. 2022 - Apr. 2023 Percent change 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.4

  4. #504

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    Here is an article that clearly illustrates the games that are played.

    Canada has experienced very rapid population growth and most of it isnt because the locals are having lots of babies

    Comrade Justin keeps touting how well the economy is doing but in fact we are in a recession.

    Yes 2 quarters of negative GDP and yes you must factor in the amount of people ( per capita)

    Much like if you grow your food source by 10% but you have 15% more people to feed you are not better off as far as feeding people.

    Like how this person thinks

    https://betterdwelling.com/canada-ha...cted-to-erode/

  5. #505

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    Brutus 2, along my calculations the purchasing value year 2023 euro is worth 15 pct of the year 2000 euro. I guess it is even worse in the US in some town areas when i read what earnings and expenses are. Not to speak about the british pound.

    The halving time of the purchasing power of Fiat is accelerating and probably only 5-7 years anymore. It is impossible to master the sloppy use of taxmoney and incite the spenddrift of the masses. Because they are linked, Governmens always need more money and that means people must spend more in order to earn more and pay more taxes.

    They are lieing when they say they want to create a better future, they want to create a new ( taxable ) big spending spree under the flag of saving the world from a nefast climate change....

    They need the TAX of that gigantic effort far more than we the benefits of the climate stability.

    Golditiki2 +++

  6. #506

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    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ri...iling-showdown

    Mark to market gold, rather than a debt ceiling move?
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  7. #507

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    Quote Originally Posted by golditiki2 View Post
    Brutus 2, along my calculations the purchasing value year 2023 euro is worth 15 pct of the year 2000 euro. I guess it is even worse in the US in some town areas when i read what earnings and expenses are. Not to speak about the british pound.

    The halving time of the purchasing power of Fiat is accelerating and probably only 5-7 years anymore. It is impossible to master the sloppy use of taxmoney and incite the spenddrift of the masses. Because they are linked, Governmens always need more money and that means people must spend more in order to earn more and pay more taxes.

    They are lieing when they say they want to create a better future, they want to create a new ( taxable ) big spending spree under the flag of saving the world from a nefast climate change....

    They need the TAX of that gigantic effort far more than we the benefits of the climate stability.

    Golditiki2 +++
    Looks like the officials in Finland that report CPI inflation disagree with you Goldtiki2, and by an amazing margin. Going by this it looks like about 50 years to double. Ha Ha Ha.

    CPI inflation is different for various personal circumstances and different locales but I am siding more with you on this one, as sure seems pretty low unless things have not moved up hardly at all for you per year. Besides you live there. I put in 2000 to 2022 as does not have 2023.

    https://www.worlddata.info/europe/fi...20was%207.9%25.

  8. #508

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    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    Looks like the officials in Finland that report CPI inflation disagree with you Goldtiki2, and by an amazing margin. Going by this it looks like about 50 years to double. Ha Ha Ha.

    CPI inflation is different for various personal circumstances and different locales but I am siding more with you on this one, as sure seems pretty low unless things have not moved up hardly at all for you per year. Besides you live there. I put in 2000 to 2022 as does not have 2023.

    https://www.worlddata.info/europe/fi...20was%207.9%25.
    Guess it does have 2023, but still almost 50 years to double.

  9. #509

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    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    Looks like the officials in Finland that report CPI inflation disagree with you Goldtiki2, and by an amazing margin. Going by this it looks like about 50 years to double. Ha Ha Ha.

    CPI inflation is different for various personal circumstances and different locales but I am siding more with you on this one, as sure seems pretty low unless things have not moved up hardly at all for you per year. Besides you live there. I put in 2000 to 2022 as does not have 2023.

    https://www.worlddata.info/europe/fi...20was%207.9%25.
    dear Brutus2, i have years ago halted to believe in " official" statistics. I do not question the statistical science, but the inputs, Everything is in the items one chooses as being represantative. ( it is a ) not easy to determinate which one of the numerous products for a same enduse should be targeted and b) why exclude so called volatile items ? ) Moreover there is also the collectors' bias, I have myself been collecting data in my student time and know that not all collected data are correct. I have also remarked during my efforts to understand sime import statistics that there were huge mistakes in the inputs, a same product could be imputed as m2, or ( metric) tons or m3 or square m, guess what a mix that gave.

    Moreover all governments want to present a far better picture of their CPI than what reality is. I can agree that some products have gone down, others up, but after all one lives and has habits, at a certain age ones' habits do not change much, so the incomes and expenses can easily be compared and the inflation seen.
    Moreover it may be true that inflation has slowed, but we are now at ANOTHER price level. and the fact that we on top of that new level have a less harsh inflation is really an attempt to blind the mind of people with newpseudorealities.

    The reality is that pricelevels have risen so much people cannot cover their expenses anymore without delving in their savings, selling property, taking on more debt; or having an extra job. That situation has emerged very recently and at a fulgurent pace lately.

    Golditiki2+++

  10. #510

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    Quote Originally Posted by golditiki2 View Post
    dear Brutus2, i have years ago halted to believe in " official" statistics. I do not question the statistical science, but the inputs, Everything is in the items one chooses as being represantative. ( it is a ) not easy to determinate which one of the numerous products for a same enduse should be targeted and b) why exclude so called volatile items ? ) Moreover there is also the collectors' bias, I have myself been collecting data in my student time and know that not all collected data are correct. I have also remarked during my efforts to understand sime import statistics that there were huge mistakes in the inputs, a same product could be imputed as m2, or ( metric) tons or m3 or square m, guess what a mix that gave.

    Moreover all governments want to present a far better picture of their CPI than what reality is. I can agree that some products have gone down, others up, but after all one lives and has habits, at a certain age ones' habits do not change much, so the incomes and expenses can easily be compared and the inflation seen.
    Moreover it may be true that inflation has slowed, but we are now at ANOTHER price level. and the fact that we on top of that new level have a less harsh inflation is really an attempt to blind the mind of people with newpseudorealities.

    The reality is that pricelevels have risen so much people cannot cover their expenses anymore without delving in their savings, selling property, taking on more debt; or having an extra job. That situation has emerged very recently and at a fulgurent pace lately.

    Golditiki2+++
    Totally agree with all your points Goldtiki2. Especially about the validity of the government inputs being suspect, due to them having an obvious vested interest in its measurement.

    It does not take a very high inflation rate( as measured by CPI over a few decades) to make everything you say absolutely true.

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