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Thread: You cannot ignore economic reality.

  1. #491

    Default

    A touch of economic reality in the form of central bank rates -

    JPY -0.10
    CHF -0.25
    EUR 1.25
    USD 2.50
    CAD 3.25
    AUD 2.35
    NZD 3.00
    GBP 1.75

    And despite such a high CB rate, it takes 1.35CAD to buy a USD? Wow, just wow.

    Most currencies are gaining against the USD right now, the RUB is the big exception in the mix I currently follow.

    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?f...o=CAD&view=10Y

    Bank rates are found a ways down on the page in that link.
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  2. #492

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SilverPalm View Post
    A touch of economic reality in the form of central bank rates -

    JPY -0.10
    CHF -0.25
    EUR 1.25
    USD 2.50
    CAD 3.25
    AUD 2.35
    NZD 3.00
    GBP 1.75

    And despite such a high CB rate, it takes 1.35CAD to buy a USD? Wow, just wow.

    Most currencies are gaining against the USD right now, the RUB is the big exception in the mix I currently follow.

    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?f...o=CAD&view=10Y

    Bank rates are found a ways down on the page in that link.

    I think they need to update their CB rates for different countries.
    For instance the US one is 5% and the EUR is 3.50% currently.

    https://www.global-rates.com/en/inte...ral-banks.aspx

  3. #493

    Default

    Many hypothesize, as I do, that the only debt default that matters is sovereign debt default.
    Large Sovereigns can only default via currency collapse, as they can create endless currency to pay their debts, but at some point no one will value it.

    The reason is simple - if banks fail, they can be bailed out or in by the sovereign (country)
    If pension funds fail - the same
    If large corporations fail - the same
    If states or cities - the same etc etc etc.

    Big sovereigns can even bail out smaller sovereigns.

    Too big to fail sovereigns can only be bailed out by orchestrating a single entity sovereign. ( perhaps the dummies in control are not so dumb after all. ) Perhaps when you are at the top of the pyramid you can see the furthest

    Funny how most of the Central Banks of the world act like a well rehearsed orchestra performing as per the Maestro

  4. #494

    Default

    It would seem there is a large segment of the population that is more comfortable believing what the government says than their own common sense. I don't know if they are just not paying attention, ignoring it, or willfully denying things. It seems to me the farther we go down this road, the more gullible and willing much of America seems to be.
    Now there's no more oak oppression
    They passed a noble law
    Now the trees are all kept equal
    By hatchet, axe and saw.

    I will not comply.

    The Tea Party... quietly plotting to take over the world,
    and leave you the hell alone!

  5. #495

    Default

    Banks have always been a license to print money in Canada.
    In fact the Canadian Government and the Banks have a very mutually beneficial symbiotic relationship.

    I could never realize why so many hedge funds short these banks. It has certainly been a widow maker trade over the years.

    I simply do not invest in them directly, due to my personal dislike of them, ( hard to do in Canada) but I do acknowledge that as far as banks go, they
    are near the top, as well run parasitic entities.




    Canadian banks: DBRS commented on Canadian banks following the banking
    turmoil in the U.S. and noted that the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and
    Signature Bank are idiosyncratic and not representative of the Canadian
    banking sector. DBRS noted that the banks in its coverage universe generally
    have lower exposure to fixed income securities, diversified and stable funding,
    sufficient liquidity, prudent risk/liquidity management, and capital buffers that
    should enable them to navigate current market turbulence. DBRS added that
    the risk of a bank run is low due to the lower number of banks in Canada (85)
    than in the US (more than 4,700). DBRS noted that the Canadian banks did not
    experience deposit outflows in March and thus did not anticipate any forced
    selling of bond holdings. Furthermore, unrealized losses on investment
    securities recorded at fair value are represent a small percentage of total assets
    for the Canadian banks (0.3%) than they did for SVB (8.4%). Canadian banks'
    Common Equity Tier1 (CET1) ratios remain above their regulatory minimums
    after adjusting for unrealized losses on securities at amortized cost, compared
    to the 1,100bp decline that SVB experienced. DBRS also noted that the
    regulatory framework in Canada is more stringent than in the U.S., with OSFI
    imposing stricter standards and monitoring across the entire domestic banking
    landscape than its counterpart in the US.
    Regulatory ratios that Canadian banks have to meet. In general they are well
    above their requirements:

    Net Stable
    Bank Funding Ratio Liquidity Coverage Ratio CET1 Ratio

    BMO 120% 135% 18.20%
    BNS 109% 122% 11.50%
    CM 115% 134% 11.60%
    NA 125% 151% 12.60%
    RY 112% 130% 12.70%
    TD 125% 141% 15.50%

    Regulatory 100% 100% 11.50%
    Minimum

  6. #496

    Default

    https://youtu.be/ZLUIT7dywtI?t=934

    Commodities to be strong for the next 5 years?
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  7. #497

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by t00nces2 View Post
    It would seem there is a large segment of the population that is more comfortable believing what the government says than their own common sense. I don't know if they are just not paying attention, ignoring it, or willfully denying things. It seems to me the farther we go down this road, the more gullible and willing much of America seems to be.
    Following a pied piper is an age old story. Sheeple are fat, dumb and happy right up to the time they're lead to the sheering.
    American Legion Preamble: https://www.legion.org/preamble

  8. #498

    Default

    How would you like to be paid 81% on government bonds.

    You would be if you had some Argentinian ones.

    One problem though. You would be losing a lot of money, even if you paid 0 taxes on the income

    The latest annual inflation in Argentina is 104%

    Always amazed me how a country that was once one of the richest countries in the world and really should be blessed geographically, can be so pathetic.

    Perhaps a warning.

  9. #499

    Default

    How long can the US government keep the balls in the air.

    One of the main reasons we are not in a recession this year.
    Interesting how they ( establishment and their shrills) keep trying to paint economy as Goldilocks or at least okay for now, but government has to keep
    pouring in unfunded $$$. How non Keynesian of them.

    Below is as good as it gets for the first 7 months of the Treasury Budget. ( increase of 157% over previous period) All downhill from here
    as interest bill starts really accelerating ( cash reserves month away from all used up in TGA ). Remember, when you read this, April is the golden month for the Treasury. I am confident it will top out over 2 trillion in deficit, maybe a fair bit more. ( defense is showing no change year over year?)

    You can sure look wealthy, even if you are unable to pay your debts, if people are willing to keep giving you money and the fiddler continues to play.

    From the horses mouth fresh off press.



    The US government budget surplus came at USD 176 billion in April 2023, narrowing from a USD 308 billion surplus in the corresponding period of the previous year, and below market expectations of a USD 235 billion surplus. It pointed to the first budget surplus since April 2022, amid a sharp drop in revenues due to lower non-withheld individual tax receipts. Revenues decreased by 26% to $639 billion, despite marking the second-highest level since a year earlier. Meantime, outlays fell 17% to $462 billion. Considering the first seven months of the 2023 fiscal year, the budget deficit stood at $925 billion, marking a 157% jump from the $360 billion deficit a year earlier. source: Financial Management Service, US Treasury

  10. #500

    Question

    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    How long can the US government keep the balls in the air.

    One of the main reasons we are not in a recession this year.
    Interesting how they ( establishment and their shrills) keep trying to paint economy as Goldilocks or at least okay for now, but government has to keep
    pouring in unfunded $$$. How non Keynesian of them.

    Below is as good as it gets for the first 7 months of the Treasury Budget. ( increase of 157% over previous period) All downhill from here
    as interest bill starts really accelerating ( cash reserves month away from all used up in TGA ). Remember, when you read this, April is the golden month for the Treasury. I am confident it will top out over 2 trillion in deficit, maybe a fair bit more. ( defense is showing no change year over year?)

    You can sure look wealthy, even if you are unable to pay your debts, if people are willing to keep giving you money and the fiddler continues to play.

    From the horses mouth fresh off press.



    The US government budget surplus came at USD 176 billion in April 2023, narrowing from a USD 308 billion surplus in the corresponding period of the previous year, and below market expectations of a USD 235 billion surplus. It pointed to the first budget surplus since April 2022, amid a sharp drop in revenues due to lower non-withheld individual tax receipts. Revenues decreased by 26% to $639 billion, despite marking the second-highest level since a year earlier. Meantime, outlays fell 17% to $462 billion. Considering the first seven months of the 2023 fiscal year, the budget deficit stood at $925 billion, marking a 157% jump from the $360 billion deficit a year earlier. source: Financial Management Service, US Treasury
    so Just print up More money Right Brutus?
    Hope you Don't Mind me dropping This Here: https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2023...udder-lag.html
    x3

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