Platinum / Gold ratio

[yellowsnow]

I'm starting a new thread because old threads only talk about gold/platinum ratio.

Right now, Pt/Au ratio is near or at historical low, 0.62







kitco has an article that discusses about Pt to Au ratio

[yellowsnow]

zoomed in chart

[yellowsnow]

more chart porn

[yellowsnow]

ditto

[yellowsnow]

I'm baffled by the current Pt price as well.
Pt is superior to Pd in catalytic converter (CC) , that is why Pt was first used in CC of gasoline cars.

Here is my take. Gotta understand the history first.
When diesel cars got popular in 2000's due to rising petrol price, Pt price trended up, peaking at 1992.5 $/oz on april 14, 2008.
When 2008 subprime crises hit, Pt got hit, down to 847.83 on dec 1, 2008. Then Pt price slowly rose back to 1882.6 on Sep 5, 2011. During the hot Pt price period , gasoline car makers were looking for a low cost replacement for Pt, and found Pd could do the job at ~ 1/4 the price (~450 $/oz when Pt peaked at 1992$/oz). When low sulfur gasoline was mandated, high price Pt is not need for gasoline CC becoz cheaper Pd does the job with low sulfur gasoline. Pt is saved for diesel application. However, ultra low sulfur diesel came available in Dec 2010, the critical need for Pt for diesel CC is not as great anymore, Pd could be use in ULSD CC as well. By Jan 1,2018, Pd price 1064$ surpassed Pt price $932, and continue to climb as CC maker continue to make Pd based CC. Basically, the auto maker kept the cost of new car in check by shifting added cost of clean emission to 'clean fuel' which consumers will pay later through gas fillup. The push for clean emission is moved to marine with low sulfur fuel mandated to come into effect Jan 2020.


Now that the Pt/Pd price ratio is 1.6, incentive to changeover to Pt CC is there but the changeover is not overnight. CC makers may wait a while to make sure the Pt vs Pd price differential is real and long lasting before they make the changeover. Secondly, new Pt CC need to go through the red tape of gov't testing and re-certification. After that, each new car with new Pt CC need to be tested and re-certified. All this can take 1-2 years. A cloudly outlook may spell recession and slow car sales. Combined With auto makers shifting attention toward EV, CC makers are hessitant to spend engineering, certification and manufacturing of Pt CC.

I think the crazy Pd prices lately is due to auto makers can't get Pt CC because Pt CC are not ready or available. Pd supply is running a deficit since 2016 and forecast to go beyond 2020. Make up physical Pd is coming out of PALL ETF as shareholders are taking physical delivery not dollar.. At 1350 Pd price is high but auto makers have no choice if they want to keep the assembly line running. I dunno when the Pt CC come available since I'm not connected to the auto industry. My guess is Pt can recover quickly once CC makers feel confidence enough to make the changeover to Pt.


Pt upside is in asia. In china, their CC in diesel trucks and cars contain 10% of Pt of western standard ( the 10% figure is an average of no CC used to some having western CC standard). If china mandate higher emission standard, ( I said if), demand from china alone can pop Pt price. Also, more Pt and Pd needed to make fuel cell automobiles than what's used in internal combustion engine.

[yellowsnow]

[and4rik]

"Also, more Pt and Pd needed to make fuel cell automobiles than what's used in internal combustion engine."

Could you cite a source for this?

Here is an article I just read,
https://www.rdmag.com/news/2018/12/n...currently-used
States that they have reduced pt consumption for fuel cell with a pt cobalt alloy.

Also, many of your charts are not visible to me, and your video is disabled by youtube due to offensive content.

[yellowsnow]

BASF and sbsw launching a tri-metal catalyst
https://www.basf.com/global/en/media.../p-20-134.html

[ifionlyhadsomegold]

I don't think the ratio is out of whack as bad as silver but it still at all time lows. I hope it does well because I have been highly favoring it over gold for as long as I have been stacking. Future demand is going to be to the moon, literally.

[motocat]

If the gold to platinum ratio reached 2.5:1 again, as it briefly did in March, I will be swapping (at least my paper forms). This will happen if gold hits 2K, while platinum remains at 800, or platinum back to $700, and gold where it is about now.