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Thread: Getting very Late in the Game...

  1. #31

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    Quote Originally Posted by BodieGhost View Post
    I'm going to agree with the authors of this article. No long term bear market in stocks - yet.

    Know your comfort level and have an asset mix accordingly. The bear is not far off - now to 2 years or so off, with a significant probability.
    US consumers are back spending more than they make, US deficit is exploding in so called good times. Monetary policy is still mildly accommodative but getting very close to neutral.
    Easy money was primary reason for long bull, Geopolitical factors are many, 2019 earning comparisons will be much harder, Balance of trade is getting worse, not better, GDP growth is decelerating
    from quarter 2, and is anticipated to continue that trend. Main reason for current reading was growth in spending, and inventory build and using lower inflation rate than anticipated. ( not good reasons in my opinion). I would not be surprised to see stocks bounce back to near 2018 highs but they will have a tougher time making significant new highs. Most are poor at market timing, although most think they are. Probabilities favour caution in asset mix, if one believes that 0 to 2 years out that the market will be below where it is now.

  2. #32

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    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    Know your comfort level and have an asset mix accordingly.
    Absolutely. A very good point.

    In my case, I took some profits off the table last month which gave me a cash allocation I'm comfortable with. Some of it may find its way back into the market as I search for bargains. So to some degree, I am timing the market. This is not something I recommend to most investors. I happen to have 28 years of stock market experience, and even with that, I can't say I'm any good at market timing. I still do it anyway, mostly for the challenge. If I get it wrong, I try to make sure I don't hurt too bad.

    Bottom line, don't follow my lead without DYODD.

  3. #33

    Question

    Well, I don't know anything.
    Except, that When EVERYBODY is saying the Next big Downturn is 2 years Away...
    They Have Got to be Wrong.
    x3

  4. #34

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverone View Post
    Well, I don't know anything.
    Except, that When EVERYBODY is saying the Next big Downturn is 2 years Away...
    They Have Got to be Wrong.
    same fallacious logic as saying that Everybody says that the sun will come up tomorrow morning so they Must be wrong.

    The markets are showing such obvious need for correction that even the optimists can't deny the overvalued condition anymore. That is the actual situation.

  5. #35

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    Quote Originally Posted by shades View Post
    same fallacious logic as saying that Everybody says that the sun will come up tomorrow morning so they Must be wrong.

    The markets are showing such obvious need for correction that even the optimists can't deny the overvalued condition anymore. That is the actual situation.
    a Little bit Different the Sun coming up...
    Stock "market" cheerleaders have been Living Large for Far too Long.
    the Entire Economy has been Warped.
    People think the "markets" are Proof of how Strong our Economy is...
    Ass Backwards..
    x3

  6. #36

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by silverone View Post
    a Little bit Different the Sun coming up...
    Stock "market" cheerleaders have been Living Large for Far too Long.
    the Entire Economy has been Warped.
    People think the "markets" are Proof of how Strong our Economy is...
    Ass Backwards..
    when our stock market used to have 90% of the ticker being companies that actually made a physical product, that held true.

    Nowadays , the stock market value is what, ten thousand times greater in vapor phantom products such as derivatives and insurance "products". If you took all the non company product creation stocks out of the dow, you would end up with a fraction of todays money parked in all investments.

    So I theorize that when the big "reset" happens, 99% of americans would lose the majority of their wealth frittered away to vaporware stocks.

  7. #37

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by shades View Post
    when our stock market used to have 90% of the ticker being companies that actually made a physical product, that held true.

    Nowadays , the stock market value is what, ten thousand times greater in vapor phantom products such as derivatives and insurance "products". If you took all the non company product creation stocks out of the dow, you would end up with a fraction of todays money parked in all investments.

    So I theorize that when the big "reset" happens, 99% of americans would lose the majority of their wealth frittered away to vaporware stocks.
    Well, again to me.. as I see it..
    it's ALL Fake Manipulated s#it... but what do I know right?
    x3

  8. #38

  9. #39

  10. #40

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