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Thread: Getting very Late in the Game...

  1. #161

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    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    ...Why can members at this site know this and not all the experts? Interesting question.
    Uhh, they listen to the wrong person in "bad times are a fading" thread?

  2. #162

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    Block out any Nirvana talk you may hear from the press or elsewhere. These rate increases will cause a lot of pain, currently and in 2023
    When you have 6 month rates well higher than 30 years you have a real problem coming. ( unless a real quick about face by FED)
    When you jump off the building you will hit the ground hard, not soft, no matter what someone has convinced you. It may feel like you are flying, but you are not

    Personally I am loving the good hunting in fixed income and PM space right now, but I would forego it for a prosperous situation for all, because in the long run, that is best for all concerned.



    NAME COUPON PRICE YIELD 1 MONTH 1 YEAR TIME (EST)
    GB3:GOV
    3 Month
    0.00 4.05 4.15% +81 +413 12:47 PM
    GB6:GOV
    6 Month
    0.00 4.43 4.59% +53 +456 12:47 PM
    GB12:GOV
    12 Month
    0.00 4.53 4.75% +54 +463 12:47 PM
    GT2:GOV
    2 Year
    4.38 99.40 4.70% +39 +425 12:47 PM
    GT5:GOV
    5 Year
    4.13 99.06 4.34% +19 +321 12:47 PM
    GT10:GOV
    10 Year
    2.75 88.92 4.14% +26 +265 12:47 PM
    GT30:GOV
    30 Year
    3.00 79.05 4.25% ( not sure where these numbers went but would be similar to 10 year)

  3. #163

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    I am very thankful that you have shown yourself to be both factual and informed.

    Reason being is I can not understand the underlying data points that you use (perhaps I have been too lazy too long, or perhaps it is above my capabilities. I acknowledge not being real bright and also being lax in putting in the legwork).

    In any case, thank you brutus2 for continuing to bring summary reports in a manner that everyday people can understand.

  4. #164

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    [QUOTE=brutus2;2779066]Block out any Nirvana talk you may hear from the press or elsewhere. These rate increases will cause a lot of pain, currently and in 2023
    When you have 6 month rates well higher than 30 years you have a real problem coming. ( unless a real quick about face by FED)
    When you jump off the building you will hit the ground hard, not soft, no matter what someone has convinced you. It may feel like you are flying, but you are not

    Personally I am loving the good hunting in fixed income and PM space right now, but I would forego it for a prosperous situation for all, because in the long run, that is best for all concerned.



    Head fake.

    No way this type of current inflation is going to be cured with falling longer term rates. 10 year yield is now around 3.8% and a Fed discount rate maybe getting to 4.5 to 5% for 3 to 6 months.

    Lets have a good look at those rosy inflation numbers from the CPI reading

    Shelter ( the biggest expense by far for J6P rose .8% in October which is 9.6% annualized and has increased 6.9% in last 12 months ( accelerating)
    Food ( yeh, kind of important) rose .6% which is 7.2% annualized and has increased 10.9% in last 12 months. ( decreasing a bit but still really high)
    Energy ( kind of important) increased 1.8% which is 21.6% annualized and has increased 17.6% in past 12 months ( accelerating)

    Services, shelter and food ( these 3 make up ton of regular folks cost of living and are primarily domestic if not 100%, are up 6%, 9.6% and 7.2% respectively if the month is annualized. That is still way above the current FFR and the top expectations for it.

    The strong US dollar has put a lid on a lot of 'goods' inflation as US imports a lot of this, as well as some commodity inflation. Wonder what has been going down this week, big time.

    Also Michigan Consumer Sentiment just reported inflation expectations went from 5% to 5.1% for 2023. Not exactly the 2% that the Fed wants and they look at inflation expectations.

    Remember all these figures are how the Fed measures inflation ( no bias here but the trend can be useful)


    Guess what is coming up January 1st 2023. 8.7% SS raise to the masses who spend everything. Also big raises to Federal Government workers and retirees and all else on COLA. ( should do wonders for inflation)

    Deficit spending. I have been monitoring. The real debt ( adjusted) is running slightly higher than last years from start current year ( 10/01)
    Wonder what no Fed rebate ( over 100 billion) much higher interest on public debt - probably at least 35%) much higher SS payments, and probably higher defense vendor payments will do to the deficit ( inflationary)

    Imagine what the economy would look like if the treasury was not mainlining 8.5% of GDP into the jugular of the economy. Will be more this year.

    This all assumes no significant recession which will increase payments and decrease revenue. Also capital gains revenue should be way down this year vs last. ( markets etc)


    Why do I look at all this? I would be wary to get very enthusiastic about this bear market correction. It is based on misplaced optimism in my opinion. I am buying/hedging/selling accordingly. PM`s I am not sure about but I think the stocks may take a breather or go down a bit also, at least for a bit. Hope I am wrong on that.

    I really do think, now, that Powell will at least try for a while to bring inflation down and risk a bit of pain. At least longer than what the market thinks ( 6 months instead of 3) ha ha. He needs to have the Fed retain at least a glimmer of integrity.

    I believe the market will do the analysis I just did and many others and will drift downwards again very soon.

  5. #165

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    The consumer is very healthy. So goes the chant - yeh, maybe 20% of them for now. ( richer and older, generally)

    Guess people just borrow into higher rates because they have so much money sitting in their cking accounts paying nada or next thing to it.
    Why not get 3.5% in your savings account while you pay between 6 and 30% elsewhere ( merchant cards for the 30) I am sure that is the strategy, that is what the talking heads tell you.

    No, a lot more likely that a lot of people are tapped out, but still like their goodies and will not do without. Credit institutions will keep in the Christmas spirit until the delinquency rates start rising ( early next year in my opinion )

    Notice the rate of change is increasing for the variable rate product ( up that is) like credit card/other/heloc)

    Notice that greatest rise in debt since 2008. ( interesting year)

    Be real interesting to see what October and Novembers is considering just released high increase in retail sales.

    Guess not all bad. Comrade Biden has still frozen student debt and interest, as he continues to mainline 9% (deficit spending) of GDP into the jugular of the US economy to keep it afloat.

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-house...er%20of%202008.

  6. #166

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    The consumer is very healthy. So goes the chant - yeh, maybe 20% of them for now. ( richer and older, generally)

    Guess people just borrow into higher rates because they have so much money sitting in their cking accounts paying nada or next thing to it.
    Why not get 3.5% in your savings account while you pay between 6 and 30% elsewhere ( merchant cards for the 30) I am sure that is the strategy, that is what the talking heads tell you.

    No, a lot more likely that a lot of people are tapped out, but still like their goodies and will not do without. Credit institutions will keep in the Christmas spirit until the delinquency rates start rising ( early next year in my opinion )

    Notice the rate of change is increasing for the variable rate product ( up that is) like credit card/other/heloc)

    Notice that greatest rise in debt since 2008. ( interesting year)

    Be real interesting to see what October and Novembers is considering just released high increase in retail sales.

    Guess not all bad. Comrade Biden has still frozen student debt and interest, as he continues to mainline 9% (deficit spending) of GDP into the jugular of the US economy to keep it afloat.

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-house...er%20of%202008.
    Well Brutus I am No Economist BUT I Work in a LARGE Grocery store
    and it has been Getting Slower and SLOWER..
    people spend what they can Afford to to Eat
    but, Not Much for Much Else
    x3

  7. #167

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverone View Post
    Well Brutus I am No Economist BUT I Work in a LARGE Grocery store
    and it has been Getting Slower and SLOWER..
    people spend what they can Afford to to Eat
    but, Not Much for Much Else
    Well I sure value eyeball evidence far more than reports Silver, as I am not in US to observe myself. Thanks for the eyeballs.

    Government survey that came out today sure claims a bunch of people sure are spending a lot lately in US

    Pretty eye popping actually, even when one factors in price increases. ( considering their loss of purchasing power)

    Not a lot of deep dive info, but sure seems like people are either driving and drinking and dining out a lot more or the prices have gone sky high in these categories and it did not slow them down at all.

    So could be they are buying less groceries but still spending more in other areas, or could be the survey overstates spending.

    It does seem to collaborate the increased use of credit cards lately.

    Perhaps they think some fine dining and a good bottle of wine today is better than a bowl of insects and a glass of tainted water later. Hard to say what goes through peoples head these days or the governments.



    https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/...ts_current.pdf

  8. #168

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    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    ...or the governments...

    I will not go to that place about someone I often go.
    I will not go to that place about someone I often go.
    I will not go to that place about someone I often go.
    I will not go to that place about someone I often go.
    I will not go to that place about someone I often go.
    I will not go to that place about someone I often go.
    I will not go to that place about someone I often go.
    I will not go to that place about someone I often go.
    I will not go to that place about someone I often go.
    I will not go to that place about someone I often go.


    There, I feel better now


  9. #169

    Default

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/to...l-bank-support

    Was the Fed not crashing the system fast enough? Will the BOJ be the one that topples the financial world as we know it?
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  10. #170

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    Quote Originally Posted by SilverPalm View Post
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/to...l-bank-support

    Was the Fed not crashing the system fast enough? Will the BOJ be the one that topples the financial world as we know it?

    all in the wording

    "Central banks must remove emergency support measures once financial crises are over to avoid causing moral hazard in the market, "

    key words, " once financial crises are over"


    They will never be over for Japan, or probably any of the others.

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