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Thread: Getting very Late in the Game...

  1. #131

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    It makes sense. The scam has be be prolonged as long as it can.
    Now there's no more oak oppression
    They passed a noble law
    Now the trees are all kept equal
    By hatchet, axe and saw.

    I will not comply.

    The Tea Party... quietly plotting to take over the world,
    and leave you the hell alone!

  2. #132

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    Tick Tick Tick. Treasury only has 508 billion left in operating cash. It has been drawn down from 1782 billion October 1st 2000.
    It will be 100% used up by October 1st 2021 by my calculations, if no more borrowing ( as situation at present)
    Obviously the debt ceiling will be abolished, increased or deferred. Borrowing will commence which will put pressure on rates along
    with Social Security needing to sell treasuries to fund SS. ( yes it has happened, SS is now a net seller instead of buyer of treasuries)
    Also if inflation does not subside measurably in next few months, or economy stall measurably, going to be very hard for Fed not to start talking hard about tapering.
    Tick Tick Tick

    https://fsapps.fiscal.treasury.gov/d...s/21080300.pdf

  3. #133

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    Tick Tick Tick. Treasury only has 508 billion left in operating cash. It has been drawn down from 1782 billion October 1st 2000.
    It will be 100% used up by October 1st 2021 by my calculations, if no more borrowing ( as situation at present)
    Obviously the debt ceiling will be abolished, increased or deferred. Borrowing will commence which will put pressure on rates along
    with Social Security needing to sell treasuries to fund SS. ( yes it has happened, SS is now a net seller instead of buyer of treasuries)
    Also if inflation does not subside measurably in next few months, or economy stall measurably, going to be very hard for Fed not to start talking hard about tapering.
    Tick Tick Tick

    https://fsapps.fiscal.treasury.gov/d...s/21080300.pdf
    ^that don't sound good..
    And this does not as well... >>> https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/03/hous...d-quarter.html
    x3

  4. #134

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by silverone View Post
    I Laugh Everytime I use my one (Actual Big Bank CC) about once a year on average..
    as soon as I get the bill I mail that payment in full out that day.
    still the Multitudes out there Try me..
    Get that Home Loan... Refinance... Spend. Spend. Spend.
    ^ From 2-18-19
    Still True Today (for me)
    x3

  5. #135

    Default

    Are we approaching the shoe shine moment?
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/re...-all-time-high

    According to that report, retail investors are in like never before. I seem to remember that just before the original big stock market crash, a prominent investor (Rockefeller?) was said to have knows the markets were done when he started hearing his shoe shine boy bragging about his gains in the markets.

  6. #136

    Default

    Just one more sign of insanity that shows we are getting very late in the game.

    Triple C corporate bonds are like lending money to your unemployed nephew that only sporadically pays people back ( you may need to visit him with some persuasion)
    Bond yields are generally a function of credit risk, inflation and interest rate risk. With Triple C, most of the emphasis is on the former.
    What is wrong with the below picture:

    Yields are currently around 7.3% for Triple C rated bonds ( simply amazing)
    Inflation rate is around 5% but lets be charitable and call it 2% as maybe investor are looking out a few years
    Default rate 35% within 3 years of loan

    So lets see what happens in 3 years on average

    You make 7.3% x 3 = 21.9% in interest
    You lose 6% purchasing power
    you lose 35% principle
    So you lose on average 19.1% in a 3 year period.

    It truly is a madhouse. Or is it simply a case of our new system eliminating moral hazard and the investors thinking the Fed will rescue them from all bad decisions.

  7. #137

    Default

    wow - talk about a high correlation. ( margin debt and stock market)

    Scarier still is that a decrease in margin debt after a build up seems to happen just before a sharp sell off in market
    Margin debt went down in July. If it goes down in August, I will increase hedging in anticipation of correction.

    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...e-in-15-months

  8. #138

    Default

    According to this - https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wh...ord-65-billion
    The chip shortage seems to have come to an abrupt end. If that is the case, car makers should be able to sell a lot of cars that have been sitting & waiting for that one last little part. It will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see if a delta variant shortage of some sort now emerges.

  9. #139

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    Tick Tick Tick. Treasury only has 508 billion left in operating cash. It has been drawn down from 1782 billion October 1st 2000.
    It will be 100% used up by October 1st 2021 by my calculations, if no more borrowing ( as situation at present)
    Obviously the debt ceiling will be abolished, increased or deferred. Borrowing will commence which will put pressure on rates along
    with Social Security needing to sell treasuries to fund SS. ( yes it has happened, SS is now a net seller instead of buyer of treasuries)
    Also if inflation does not subside measurably in next few months, or economy stall measurably, going to be very hard for Fed not to start talking hard about tapering.
    Tick Tick Tick

    https://fsapps.fiscal.treasury.gov/d...s/21080300.pdf
    Tick Tick Tick
    Treasury only has 239 billion left in operating cash. Around 1 month.
    They can do a few accounting tricks by raiding some trust funds, but that will only buy them an extra month or so.

    They will make a deal, sometime in next 45 days or so to increase debt ceiling to 30+ trillion ( my opinion).
    Then we will see lots more borrowing to replenish the dry account.
    Interesting timing as will be further discussions on tapering then.

  10. #140

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