Redrum - Do you have written investment plans? Do you update as investment strategy changes?

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In my OPINION the S & P 500 is going to have one more push higher. Whether that will be enough to attain 4,300+ certainly remains to be seen. It is also my OPINION that the probabilities of this have not been good enough for me to stay fully invested in dividend paying equities and even has me considering exiting the less than 9% we still hold. I remain undecided as to if or when I decide to go all out. I will certainly note when I do here. I am leaning toward waiting to see how the current downtrend in TLT plays out.

While I believe there will still be another push higher in the S & P 500 I also believe that it will be significant topping of this uptrend wave off the low of 3,492 on 10/13/2022 and in my OPINION, one that can set up a market crash in the last half of 2023. Based both upon my OPINION and the actual buying and selling I have been doing for the past couple of months obviously I think it is prudent to be more cautious in retirement investing.

I am currently tracking downtrend probabilities. The two highest sentiment based probabilities for a bottoming range are 3,600 to 3,700 on the best outcome or 2,700 to 2,800 on the worst case probability.

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All of this post is my OPINION. I have written about this before but I like to occasionally bring it back up.

I am back to thinking about the current all time closing high for the S & P high of 4,793 (12/29/2021). The sentiment based structure going into that top was not typical and up to that point I had expected the sentiment based topping to be between 5,160 and 5,700.

So, there remains a probability that if the S & P 500 does drop to the 2,700 to 2,800 region there could be a uptrend wave to the 5,160 to 5,700 region.

Now, whether THE top is 4,793 or 5,160 to 5,700 there will be a decade plus long bear market that will likely target around the 1,000 region in todays dollar valuation. Remember that on March 9, 2009 the S & P closed at 676 so the levels will be similar in inflation adjusted valuations.

The World is going to continue to be fast changing and the point of this post is just me sharing the fact is I do not believe that "buying and holding" is going to be a successful retirement wealth building choice for our children and grandkids. Basically I am just rambling on about what I believe and my OPINION but heck everyone has an OPINION about just about everything.....

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TLT is still in a downtrend sentiment wave pattern. I have a buy set for 100 shares at $99.93.

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It is starting to look as though $100.00 will hold as resistance for TLT.

We bought:

100 shares of TLT at $100.37, paying a 2.92% "dividend" at that price.

This brings our average cost per share down to $104.54.

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13 week Treasury bonds are paying a 5.26% yearly rate this morning.

We put in bids for 6 "Shares" at $987.75 each that filled. Once filled they pay out $1,000. each on 8/24/2023.

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In my OPINION the highest sentiment wave probability still is slightly favoring a rise to a somewhat lowered probability of the S & P 500 attaining 4,265 or higher. The high end of this probability is in the 4,500 region. I am much more concerned personally about the coming sentiment based probabilities for what occurs after whatever this topping action ends at.

In my OPINION there is a high probability that the next drop below the S & P 500 4,100 region may indeed be the start of the downtrend I have been cautioning about for MANY weeks now. The best case scenario is back down into the 3,700 to 3,900 region but that is likely just the first leg down. The structure of that downtrend wave pattern(s) will indicate the likelihood of a much larger next leg down that will likely target the S & P 2,700 to 2,900 region.

Basically this has been my OPINION since I wrote I was going to be going into a defensive posturing of our retirement accounts. I noted that I would rather be a year early than a week late. Nothing has changed so my posts are pretty much repetitive and it could be a "snooze fest" reading for a very long time.

IN my OPINION TLT is in a sentiment based bottoming wave pattern. However, a break below the $98.80 region would wreck the current sentiment based structure but in my OPINION that remains a much lower probability.

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Today we sold:

313 shares of VZ at $35.03 taking a 34.55% loss on these shares. These shares were in our Brokerage account so the loss will offset some of the profits from sales earlier this year.

This sale brings our equity holdings down to 7.1% of our retirement holdings with all of the rest in US treasuries.

We used these funds to buy 8 week Treasury bonds that are paying a 5.23% yearly rate this morning, CUSIP # 912797FZ5.

We put in bids for 11 "Shares" at $992.10 each that filled. Once filled they pay out $1,000. each on 7/25/2023.

With dividend dollars in accounts we bought:

16 shares of TLT at $101.88, paying about a 2.87% "dividend" at that price. TLT goes ex-dividend on 6/1/2023, paying a $.27 dividend which effectively reduced our "cost per share" to about $101.61.

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Today we sold:

582 shares of VZ at $35.54 taking a 27.61% loss on these shares.

We used these funds to buy 17 week Treasury bills that are paying a 5.45% yearly rate this morning, CUSIP # 912797GV3.

We put in bids for 21 "Shares" at $982.50 each that filled. Once filled they pay out $1,000. each on 10/3/2023.

This sale brings our equity holdings down to 5.0% of our retirement holdings with all of the rest in US treasuries. 45% in TLT and 50% in Treasury Bills all paying over 5%.

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I am keeping track of longer term Treasury Bills as we have to reinvest 57K on 6/6/2023.

Today the 26 week Bill is paying 5.41% - CUSIP 912796ZD4.

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I expect to see a little more push up in the S & P 500 as volatility has dropped to single digits and sentiment has risen to definitely positive. https://www.ndr.com/invest/infopage/S573

The current highest sentiment based probability is the S & P 500 is simply going to pullback correctively. This wave structure supports a S & P 500 target to be as high as to the 4,500 to 4,600 region later this year or into early next year. In my OPINION I still believe that the 4,300 region is the highest probability as long as we remain over 4,104.

My wife and I are not going to be involved in this high probability rise in the S & P 500 as we expect this is the last FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) event before the multi year downtrend begins. I remain comfortable with my belief in that I would rather be a Year too early than a week too late for what in my OPINION is coming.....