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Thread: Where are the serious silver analysts?

  1. #11
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
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    It's a little hard to buy something that doesn't seem to be going anywhere, and physical silver is so plentiful, my LCS have plenty and any 100 oz. bars they get go straight to refiner, my guess is scrap numbers will be increasing as coin/bar demand wanes some. This is good analysis right here, this report came out in May, it's the 2017 report, so look for it again this year. I don't listen to what anyone says about silver price, I just add 100 oz. a year, mostly .999 in lower mintage bar and coin if I can. But, if I get a deal on something I don't care what it is. I've added more 90% as the premiums finally faded, and think half dollars premiums will hold up next as the premiums on dollar 90% coins are pretty amazing, however peace seem considerably less than Morgan. My only armchair prediction is that only when the world as a collective makes a hard turn to the mass energy the sun gives out as a means to reduce carbon emissions will silver get it's day in the sun again. I also would predict that if/when we get a recession again it's going to be another strong one as deeper recessions have been the trend that silver price will crash, and crash big due to coin/bar investment prevalence.

    http://www.silverinstitute.org/wp-co...08/WSS2017.pdf

  2. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by AnotherDave View Post
    Why just the FRN? How about analyzing Ag against BTC as well?

    If the FRN takes a dive, BTC has a much better chance of becoming a common currency than Ag.
    For the slave class maybe, but not for people who want to transact freely without a gatekeeper.
    Trading debt based fiat currency for precious metals is not an investment. Rather, making such an exchange amounts to divestment from the currency which we are invested in by default due to how earnings and taxes are denominated.

  3. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by Westwood View Post
    For the slave class maybe, but not for people who want to transact freely without a gatekeeper.
    Are you saying that Bitcoin has a gatekeeper? Verrry interesting! Why do you say that?

  4. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by everything1 View Post
    It's a little hard to buy something that doesn't seem to be going anywhere, and physical silver is so plentiful, my LCS have plenty and any 100 oz. bars they get go straight to refiner, my guess is scrap numbers will be increasing as coin/bar demand wanes some. This is good analysis right here, this report came out in May, it's the 2017 report, so look for it again this year. I don't listen to what anyone says about silver price, I just add 100 oz. a year, mostly .999 in lower mintage bar and coin if I can. But, if I get a deal on something I don't care what it is. I've added more 90% as the premiums finally faded, and think half dollars premiums will hold up next as the premiums on dollar 90% coins are pretty amazing, however peace seem considerably less than Morgan. My only armchair prediction is that only when the world as a collective makes a hard turn to the mass energy the sun gives out as a means to reduce carbon emissions will silver get it's day in the sun again. I also would predict that if/when we get a recession again it's going to be another strong one as deeper recessions have been the trend that silver price will crash, and crash big due to coin/bar investment prevalence.

    http://www.silverinstitute.org/wp-co...08/WSS2017.pdf
    have read the silverinstitute extensive writing,

    From it i got the impression that notwithstanding production declined a bit and scrap diminished, there is quite a lot of silver floating 30 months consumption, which IMO is quite negative. Also one of the problems is that one of the main markets for silver is the USA ( as i thought) and when that market stalls, silverprices will be relatively weak. Productionprices are relatively high and producers certainly try to produce as much they can to crush their costs per ounce produced. Lots of silver are also coming as a windfall from other metalmining, copper, zinc and lead. Commodity prices might rise, but, but... Silver has not the global money status gold has, that's why i think and that is only my opinion, siveprices will continue to hover at the same level as it is now, unless the dollar really wanes and inflation sets in, or people scared by the bonds and stockmarkets reduce the floating quantities.

    Everything is a bet and it could be a good bet to buy before that excess of floating silver disappears, but who knows, the US middle class hasn't maybe not the money anymore to buy like they did before, so it is quite a question mark.

    I can be totally wrong and it is possible that the floating amount suddenly dissapears to China or India, They too have historically been silvercountries, and if gold goes up, maybe they also start buying more silver. One never knows.

    I keep an eye on the silverprice development, because it is IMO opinion an important market indicator. A sudden pricerise would absolutely be a canary in the mine, but i hardly see that canary starting to chirp next week.

    Golditiki2+++

  5. #15

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    According to the 2017 Silver Instute - World Silver Survey 2017:

    At the end of 2016: Above Ground Supply:

    Custodian Vaults: 1,571.2 million oz
    ETPs (SLV, ISLV, PSLV, etc): 664.8 million ounces
    Exchange (COMEX, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange): 250.1 million ounces
    Government: 89.1 million ounces
    Industry: 15.7 million ounces

    It seems that industry is using Just-In-Time inventory methods in acquiring silver for industrial fabrication purposes.

    Custodian Vaults seems to be private investors having someone store their silver for them. This seems to be an investor category.

    Exchange Traded Products constitutes paper silver investors, which has increased from 212.5 million ounces in 2007 to 664.8 million ounces at the end of 2016.

    Little market supply is coming from governments.

    It appears that most of the silver is held by investors who want a higher market price to get them to part with their silver.

    Some of it is used to back Futures exchanges used by day traders.

    It seems that as mining production declines, the market will look to investors to supply the annual deficits in what industrial fabrication, jewelry, silverware, solar industry, etc. will want.

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    "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
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