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Thread: Bitcoin is not a bubble!!! .. or is it?

  1. #1
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    Default Bitcoin is not a bubble!!! .. or is it?

    Pushing back on the often shrill cries of "Bitcoin is a bubble!!!!" I've generally taken the position that "...it could not be a bubble since, relatively speaking and especially in the west, so few people are in it or even know what it is".

    Then along comes Anti with the simple statement posted in another thread:

    Quote Originally Posted by Antimagnetic View Post
    all of this talk up here reminds me very much of silver trade back in april may 2011. But what do i know? lol
    For any who don't know Antimagnetic consider that he has been around Kitco for a long time, is very measured, and has for years made some astute calls about the direction of POG as well other markets.

    His statement sent a "fail alert" through my brain, hitting my thought process like a bolt of lightning. While there are quite a few dissimilar aspects to the PM bull going into 2011 and the current crypto run ("this time it's different?") the one thing I can concede without difficulty is that gold and silver bulls were not mainstream back then. And yet the relatively fast and furious run up in PM prices occurred only to crash in somewhat speedy slow motion over the next 3 years - and still have not recovered.

    I have to conclude that it does not take mainstream guys and gals i.e. shoe shine boys, pool boys (btw where was the fairer sex back in the big boom and bust periods?) taxi drivers and the like offering investment advice to confirm a bubble.

    So I continue to believe cryptos (should I say the mainstream cryptos or is that too oxymoronish?) are not in a bubble yet.

    Where am I wrong?

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot2k View Post
    Pushing back on the often shrill cries of "Bitcoin is a bubble!!!!" I've generally taken the position that "...it could not be a bubble since, relatively speaking and especially in the west, so few people are in it or even know what it is".

    How many people do you think were really buying tulip bulbs? I'm sure it wasn't everybody and it probably wasn't even really mainstream
    If I knew the answers I wouldn't be here

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveUK View Post
    How many people do you think were really buying tulip bulbs? I'm sure it wasn't everybody and it probably wasn't even really mainstream
    Exactly, and so how many people were buying Silver in 2011? Was is mainstream?

    Bitcoin has stories and top billing on many MSM financial webpages. CNBC had numerous stories and front page splashes.

  4. #4

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    Bitcoin is a distributed ledger for keeping transactions honest. That's it! All the rest is hype and misunderstanding.

    If the market wants to value a transaction at some commodity or currency amount, then who would be The One who should choose otherwise?

    (Clutching their precious FRN, they refused to answer. . .)

  5. #5
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    ^^ Pretty unhelpful reply since you surely understand the premise is about what the BTC/USD exchange rate is and not about Bitcoin "the distributed ledger".

    Oh, I almost forgot. Carry On!


  6. #6

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    Given all they hype surrounding bitcoin, and that it is hardly even used for what it was intended (as a currency to facilitate trade), I can't see how anyone could not see this as a bubble. The only question is, how big can it get (for speculators, there still may be a lot to make), before it implodes -- and can there just be a series of bubbles, only to get larger again -- as has happened in the past?

    Also, when governments start to try to control all these cyber-currencies -- what will happen?

    From what little I've read, seems like they are already keeping an eye on the platforms that trade -- so those thinking cyber currency will free them from the need to pay taxes better not assume to much.

    I myself may one day like to use cyber currency -- but for now, it's just speculation, not really about secure and confidential trade -- who would consider it that way when true market value swings so wildly?

    This is like tulip mania, it is clear. Tulips eventually settled on a real recognized value, and you can see plenty of tulips used by businesses to this day. I hope the same will happen to cyber-currencies -- in particular those that have real gold behind the trades (much better to me then math puzzles -- but then again, I'm one who prefers real women in the flesh, not digital porn as more and more do).
    “Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.”

    H.L. Mencken

  7. #7

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    I mean it is REAL CLEAR that cryptos are being used to eliminate physical cash AND eliminate the demand for PMs.

    I continue to advocate using PHYSICAL CASH or even PMs (if possible) for transactions and payments.

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by Atlas Shrugged View Post
    I mean it is REAL CLEAR that cryptos are being used to eliminate physical cash AND eliminate the demand for PMs.

    I continue to advocate using PHYSICAL CASH or even PMs (if possible) for transactions and payments.
    For me, as one who questions all, things are not always so clear, are there really powerful people in control and planning all this? There is a positive to crypto-currency, if it reduces the power central banks have over distribution of wealth. However, even with a good electronic currency that is not owned by private banks -- I do believe there will still be a need for physical currency and for traditional money (that which holds value over time). Wonder if any cybercurrency can take on a practical physical currency form? (Oh yes -- we already have silver and gold that can quickly fill in for that!).

    Wonder what's happening in Sweden. They have eliminated physical currency. Are cybercurrency and PM's picking up use in Sweden, or are they all of like mind in believing their leaders love them so they are content with their central bank digits?

    Atlas -- what do you advocate for trades online?
    “Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.”

    H.L. Mencken

  9. #9

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    ynot2k, im flattared that you thought my words were worth something. Im just an observant here. I may be wrong and i was certainly wrong many times before.

    im just drawing parallels with silver 2011 run because of the overall mood and lots of folks certainly felt back then that that time was different as well. the difference today - its different type of public speculating in BTC (im guessing youngsters mostly) and the public again is thinking similar thoughts on top of the run that ALREADY happened.

    what im going to say is more philosophical than anything - i have a feeling every generation of traders/speculators has to go through the same motions (major ups and downs) to earn the understanding of markets - those that survive and do learn have a chance to build something good out of it.

    all i know is nothing goes up forever and what goes up hard and fast has to come down usually harder and faster. timing is probably the hardest part.
    --- Do your own due diligence, don't trust anyone's opinions - the majority is always wrong! ---

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot2k View Post
    ^^ Pretty unhelpful reply since you surely understand the premise is about what the BTC/USD exchange rate is and not about Bitcoin "the distributed ledger".

    Oh, I almost forgot. Carry On!

    Hello! Isn't half the BTC/USD rate about Bitcoin? <- a question

    If the market wants to value a transaction at some commodity or currency amount, then who would be The One who should choose otherwise? <-- a question

    (Clutching their precious FRN, they refused to answer. . .) <-- Somehow, I get the impression that you are a little too deep into the Fed ideasphere. Hey, maybe I'm wrong. You don't see in terms of a free, uncontrolled market, and I suspect you were carefully schooled to not even recognize what one would be.

    Nothing personal, really. The socialists have sucked the brains out of most of us, and bored the rest of us into a resigned compliance. YMMV, and I hope it does!

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