Market Action

[oak333]

While all bear markets are different, they have similarities too.

It is interesting to see the bear market of 1929-1933. This book
shows many aspects:

https://www.amazon.com/One-Hundred-Y.../dp/0139460136

A few aspects:
----even during the severe downfall, there were wild rallies
----gold shares went first down; then they recovered and
went up
----it took 26 years for the market to recover

[oak333]

The stocks continue to go up, in spite of the conditions.

I think it is a bull trap:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bull_trap

[oak333]

It looks like the volatility index is also manipulated,
by options on S P 500. The manipulators simply quote
fake data on these options, without having to engage
in trades and to engage capital. Billions of dollars were made !

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...wer-2018-02-13

[golditiki2]

It looks like the volatility index is also manipulated,
by options on S P 500. The manipulators simply quote
fake data on these options, without having to engage
in trades and to engage capital. Billions of dollars were made !

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...wer-2018-02-13

There has been a sell-off of treasury bonds (probably due to the weakening of the dollar value ), and the same who sell treasuries buy now stocks who in the end represent a real value together with commodities.

IMO if that is true, it means dark days for debtholders and difficulties ahead for those who want to issue new debt. Maybe marketforces will push interest rates up. That would serve disculpate the Fed when the economy then stalls, the "culprit" being the market.

Golditiki2+++

[oak333]

Whistleblower awarded 30 $ million.

It disclosed how JP Morgan was steering its customers into investments
profitable for the bank.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-million-award

[oak333]

The Fed was actually front loading a market rally since 2009.
This is s statement of the Fed.

The new Fed chairman wants to reduce the balance sheet of 4 $ trillion
and wants to increase rates. He wanted it for a long time !

http://www.alt-market.com/articles/3...-crash-in-2018

With the Fed not supporting (the overvalued) markets any more, it is difficult to
see what else can support the market.

[oak333]

And yet the markets went up today.

"The bullish insider clique decided to hang on,
despite the conditions."

Jesse Livermore
Reminiscences of a stock operator

[harleyjohn45]

And yet the markets went up today.

"The bullish insider clique decided to hang on,
despite the conditions."

Jesse Livermore
Reminiscences of a stock operator

The doom and gloomer's have been singing the same song for 8 years while the market went from 7000 to 24000. Eventually they will be right and they will say "I told you so".

[oak333]

The doom and gloomer's have been singing the same song for 8 years while the market went from 7000 to 24000. Eventually they will be right and they will say "I told you so".

It is not a matter of doom and gloom. In my opinion, it is
just a matter of overvaluation.

Why should somebody behave "gloom and doom" when markets go up ?
They could make money too in a bull market, and they probably did.
They are not necessarily with a bad dark psychology. Eg when JP Morgan
and Ray Dalio (et al) issue warnings about market overvaluation, they
definitely analyze lots of data. It is a matter of analysis, not psychology.

[oak333]

It looks like the volatility index is also manipulated,
by options on S P 500. The manipulators simply quote
fake data on these options, without having to engage
in trades and to engage capital. Billions of dollars were made !

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...wer-2018-02-13

Yes, it seems right. SEC is looking into the "blatant manipulation" of the VIX.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-played-a-role