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Thread: Market Action

  1. #611

    Default Last 2 years Market Action

    Interesting market action in past 2 years for some broad asset classes

    Asset Return ( without dividends if any in US$)

    Gold +6.5%
    S&P500 0
    Silver -10.6%
    GDX (miners) -16%
    TLT (long bonds) -25%
    Bitcoin -39%

  2. #612
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    It is clear that USA and Canadian stocks are overvalued.

    Then.. choose other markets. How ? Eg for the general P/E or
    exchanges with higher New High/New Lows.

    data at tradingview.com

    Japan and India are fine. De-risking from China shows its teeth.

  3. #613

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by brutus2 View Post
    Interesting market action in past 2 years for some broad asset classes

    Asset Return ( without dividends if any in US$)

    Gold +6.5%
    S&P500 0
    Silver -10.6%
    GDX (miners) -16%
    TLT (long bonds) -25%
    Bitcoin -39%

    Gold is still the champ as of this moment, going back the same 2 years, despite the recent weakness

    Up 7%
    Down 2%
    Flat
    Down 8.5%
    Down 39%
    Down 56%

  4. #614
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    Remember Black Friday, October 19, 1987 , with a big market crash ?

    https://schrts.co/yZhuIecf

    October 19, 2023 was bad too, but not as bad as in 1987.

  5. #615
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    Short selling is booming. Lots of Inverse ETF's are doing great. One example below:

    https://schrts.co/XnhWiXRd

    You can try many other like SSD, SPXS, QID, TBT, BIS, etc

  6. #616
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    I consider that an important Market Indicator:

    "The Warren Buffett Cash Position."

    Right now it is around 157 US $ billion.

    In my opinion, that shows that he expects bad developments
    in the market. He says it shows "lack of investment opportunities"
    but ...they say practically the same thing.

    https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bu...120949492.html

  7. #617
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    The prices of stocks are really fluctuating a lot. Hard to find a trend.

    Some stocks go up one day, go down the next day. I call them "tango stocks."

    Some stocks go up one day, go down next two days. I call them "waltz stocks."

    Probably you can find "cha-cha-cha stocks" too.

  8. #618
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    SP 500 has reached an all time...again. How ?

    The sentiment is low. Most Americans fear a recession, fear reacceleration
    of inflation, and are concerned with the high interest rates.

    Then....how on earth SP 500 has reached an all time high ?

    Commentators say "because the economy is so resilient."

    The economy is truly resilient....but rates, inflation, and the news
    are really bad. NATO is openly preparing for war with Russia, Europe
    discusses military conscription. These are new things...the others are
    well known.

    In my opinion this is a fake "new bull market." Eg 3,566 stocks out of 9,472
    stocks in America are under 200DMA.

    It is probably simply a "bull trap."

    Time will tell.

  9. #619
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    Quote Originally Posted by oak333 View Post
    SP 500 has reached an all time...again. How ?

    The sentiment is low. Most Americans fear a recession, fear reacceleration
    of inflation, and are concerned with the high interest rates.

    Then....how on earth SP 500 has reached an all time high ?

    Commentators say "because the economy is so resilient."

    The economy is truly resilient....but rates, inflation, and the news
    are really bad. NATO is openly preparing for war with Russia, Europe
    discusses military conscription. These are new things...the others are
    well known.

    In my opinion this is a fake "new bull market." Eg 3,566 stocks out of 9,472
    stocks in America are under 200DMA.

    It is probably simply a "bull trap."

    Time will tell.
    How can you keep SP 500 high while lots of stocks are going down ?
    I can think of two methods:
    -----the Magnificent Seven stocks going up (Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia...)
    -----options on indices. You can control high cost stocks with low cost options

  10. #620
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    Here you have an interesting report of Dr. Mark Faber about gold, inflation,
    interest rates, monetary tightening.

    https://news.goldcore.com/we-talk-to...his-no-1-book/

    A few excerpts:

    ----Inflation is down, stocks are going up, markets stay irrational longer than
    you can stay solvent. Why ? Because most people think that with interest rates going up
    liquidity will go down.Interest rates went up but financial conditions did not tighten. The level
    of interest rates tells you nothing whether the money is tight or not. In tight monetary
    conditions markets do not go up and VIX (Volatility Index) goes up.

    ----what Fed dit was to increase interest rates but made money available to the banking system
    through all kinds of facilities. From October 2023 money conditions were actually extremely
    expansionary.

    My note: did you notice how much SP 500 and NASDAQ went up in November and December 2023 ?

    to be cont'd

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