Time to sell Rhodium?

[motocat]

I got into Rhodium several years ago, at some 1100/oz with physical bars, that though ugly, you to have in a form you could actually hold vs the sponges they used before. Looking at extreme price differences of the past, I believed it was a good bet on a "dark horse" at a price that I could not see falling much further.

I was wrong -- Rhodium fell to $600/oz at one point -- my interest, however, was gone having been made more aware of the very costly premiums ($200/oz). What that meant -- was that even with a $200 upward movement, still no gain. I vowed to never get Rhodium again.

I plan to keep that vow. However, the big upward swing in Rhodium has finally come -- I see $1640 at now. Is it time to sell (50% profit!) -- or can we expect much more from this very temperamental PM? I'm not into PM's for being volatile -- so would like to unload. However -- is this just the beginning of a bigger swing, and one should wait for even more profit? Can this be from just more regular gasoline cars vs diesel, and if so, is it perhaps short lived, due to regular gas powered cars being sure to loose vs electric in the 2020's and Rhodium is bound to go back sub $1000/oz?

Would appreciate any input with knowledge on this matter -- I did not myself read of any such large upward movements being predicted, and maybe should now take advantage of getting out at a good price -- or maybe someone knows reasons for more of a big swing to come? If I wait -- maybe to $2K, or even higher? Any suggested places of selling such metal (I've never sold Rhodium before).

[maxwellsilverhammer]

I got into Rhodium several years ago, at some 1100/oz with physical bars, that though ugly, you to have in a form you could actually hold vs the sponges they used before. Looking at extreme price differences of the past, I believed it was a good bet on a "dark horse" at a price that I could not see falling much further.

I was wrong -- Rhodium fell to $600/oz at one point -- my interest, however, was gone having been made more aware of the very costly premiums ($200/oz). What that meant -- was that even with a $200 upward movement, still no gain. I vowed to never get Rhodium again.

I plan to keep that vow. However, the big upward swing in Rhodium has finally come -- I see $1640 at now. Is it time to sell (50% profit!) -- or can we expect much more from this very temperamental PM? I'm not into PM's for being volatile -- so would like to unload. However -- is this just the beginning of a bigger swing, and one should wait for even more profit? Can this be from just more regular gasoline cars vs diesel, and if so, is it perhaps short lived, due to regular gas powered cars being sure to loose vs electric in the 2020's and Rhodium is bound to go back sub $1000/oz?

Would appreciate any input with knowledge on this matter -- I did not myself read of any such large upward movements being predicted, and maybe should now take advantage of getting out at a good price -- or maybe someone knows reasons for more of a big swing to come? If I wait -- maybe to $2K, or even higher? Any suggested places of selling such metal (I've never sold Rhodium before).

motocat, kitco pool is buying at $1540 plus shipping today so i would imagine they would pay the same outside of the pool. i personally think it is going up but it is my gamble that i am willing to make. you paid 1100 so you are in good shape to make several hundred on it. recently paid average 1530 for mine.

[Rhodium_Cowboy]

I got into Rhodium several years ago, at some 1100/oz with physical bars, that though ugly, you to have in a form you could actually hold vs the sponges they used before. Looking at extreme price differences of the past, I believed it was a good bet on a "dark horse" at a price that I could not see falling much further.

I was wrong -- Rhodium fell to $600/oz at one point -- my interest, however, was gone having been made more aware of the very costly premiums ($200/oz). What that meant -- was that even with a $200 upward movement, still no gain. I vowed to never get Rhodium again.

I plan to keep that vow. However, the big upward swing in Rhodium has finally come -- I see $1640 at now. Is it time to sell (50% profit!) -- or can we expect much more from this very temperamental PM? I'm not into PM's for being volatile -- so would like to unload. However -- is this just the beginning of a bigger swing, and one should wait for even more profit? Can this be from just more regular gasoline cars vs diesel, and if so, is it perhaps short lived, due to regular gas powered cars being sure to loose vs electric in the 2020's and Rhodium is bound to go back sub $1000/oz?

Would appreciate any input with knowledge on this matter -- I did not myself read of any such large upward movements being predicted, and maybe should now take advantage of getting out at a good price -- or maybe someone knows reasons for more of a big swing to come? If I wait -- maybe to $2K, or even higher? Any suggested places of selling such metal (I've never sold Rhodium before).

I dumped all the Rhodium I had. The premiums are a killer on this one. No dealers around me would pay more than 80% of spot. So even though you have these massive gains, It had to move a long way to get back to where it was when I bought it. I was barely able to break even on this one. No more Rhodium for me EVER.

Of course, now that I've sold, I fully expect it to go back to $10K/oz.

[maxwellsilverhammer]

I dumped all the Rhodium I had. The premiums are a killer on this one. No dealers around me would pay more than 80% of spot. So even though you have these massive gains, It had to move a long way to get back to where it was when I bought it. I was barely able to break even on this one. No more Rhodium for me EVER.

Of course, now that I've sold, I fully expect it to go back to $10K/oz.

why didnt you sell to an online source?

[motocat]

Given the $200 buy sell spread - I think I'm going to wait until about $2000 to sell -- that way I can figure below a 10% loss in premium -- hard to justify more of such cost.

However, will this buy sell spread get higher if it does go to $2K? If so -- will sell before whatever time the current $200 spread would typically increase. Anyone with any knowledge about increase in premium at higher values?

And one more question -- why did those who are dependent on Rhodium for their business - -not stock up on a lot at sub 1000K values? Seems like that would be common sense -- not needing to pay twice as much today, if they had saved some just a few months ago?? It's not as if they did not get any warnings on Rhodium price volatility given the fun up to $10K a few years ago...

[midiman]

Given the $200 buy sell spread - I think I'm going to wait until about $2000 to sell -- that way I can figure below a 10% loss in premium -- hard to justify more of such cost.

However, will this buy sell spread get higher if it does go to $2K? If so -- will sell before whatever time the current $200 spread would typically increase. Anyone with any knowledge about increase in premium at higher values?

And one more question -- why did those who are dependent on Rhodium for their business - -not stock up on a lot at sub 1000K values? Seems like that would be common sense -- not needing to pay twice as much today, if they had saved some just a few months ago?? It's not as if they did not get any warnings on Rhodium price volatility given the fun up to $10K a few years ago...

Because of the past.

I heard it was someone at Ford that took the gamble to go all out and purchase heaps of Rh to combat the rise in Platinum and Palladium and that's what sent it to $10K.

Look at Palladium rising again, and see how it is affecting Rh, it's like history is repeating itself.

Palladium eventually cooled off and they ended up writing off something like $1billion!!

So I doubt that they are going to make that mistake again and are wary about putting in big buys.

There must have been a surplus around the price dropped like lead, but reports have it that the mines in SA have cut back on production and we might be back in the era of lack of supply.

Like you say, it would make sense to buy it by the lorry load at the levels it has been.

But it looks like they are starting to take notice and putting in some buys again to hedge against the risk of it getting out of control again.

To answer the question about the spread, try looking at the historical bidding price of Rh when it was at $10K. You will find that it wasn't anything like it is at the lower levels.

Plus you could also invest in the XRH0:LN which doesn't have much of a spread.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/XRH0:LN

[motocat]

Because of the past.

I heard it was someone at Ford that took the gamble to go all out and purchase heaps of Rh to combat the rise in Platinum and Palladium and that's what sent it to $10K.

Look at Palladium rising again, and see how it is affecting Rh, it's like history is repeating itself.

Palladium eventually cooled off and they ended up writing off something like $1billion!!

So I doubt that they are going to make that mistake again and are wary about putting in big buys.

There must have been a surplus around the price dropped like lead, but reports have it that the mines in SA have cut back on production and we might be back in the era of lack of supply.

Like you say, it would make sense to buy it by the lorry load at the levels it has been.

But it looks like they are starting to take notice and putting in some buys again to hedge against the risk of it getting out of control again.

To answer the question about the spread, try looking at the historical bidding price of Rh when it was at $10K. You will find that it wasn't anything like it is at the lower levels.

Plus you could also invest in the XRH0:LN which doesn't have much of a spread.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/XRH0:LN

When Rhodium went under 1K an oz, I looked around for Rhodium based ETF's -- and the buy sell spreads were similar to dealing in physical directly. Maybe I just overlooked XRH0:LN -- is it really only a 3% spread (or am I reading wrong)-- and was this the case at sub $1,000? Why would other Rhodium ETF's have much higher premiums yet still get more business?

Regarding those who are buying now -- I just don't know why they did not just a few month ago at less then half the cost, it's not like anything has drastically changed -- or has it? Also -- how dependent is Rhodium on Palladium price? Any article explaining this?

[midiman]

When Rhodium went under 1K an oz, I looked around for Rhodium based ETF's -- and the buy sell spreads were similar to dealing in physical directly. Maybe I just overlooked XRH0:LN -- is it really only a 3% spread (or am I reading wrong)-- and was this the case at sub $1,000? Why would other Rhodium ETF's have much higher premiums yet still get more business?

Regarding those who are buying now -- I just don't know why they did not just a few month ago at less then half the cost, it's not like anything has drastically changed -- or has it? Also -- how dependent is Rhodium on Palladium price? Any article explaining this?

This sums it up pretty well.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2008...l-market-month

But I believe that times will chance once we start coming out of this decade of record low interest rates, QE, and austerity.

You can see that Rhodiums decline started in 2008 and we have nearly have 10 years of the above.

Finally, I am not going to go mad on Rh and put all of my eggs in one basket, but I want to see my 11oz's and what ever I add to it by means of the ETF go to $10k+. XRH0:LN Looks to be the way forward but I need to do a bit more research before I dip in. But the good thing about it is that you don't have to buy it in ounces and it appears to be liquid.

[sandro1979]

By the way. XRH0:LN is an ETC and not an ETF.

Have you ever tried to buy these shares since January 2016? As far as I know you can only sell shares to DB and they don't issue shares any more.

Here is the official notice:
NOTICE TO SECURITYHOLDERS
by
DB ETC plc
(the “Issuer”)
under its Secured ETC Precious Metal Linked
Securities Programme
in relation to
Series 11 db Physical Rhodium ETC
ISIN: GB00B684MW17
(the “ETC Securities”)
We hereby refer to the ETC Securities issued pursuant to the Issuer's Secured ETC Precious Metal Linked
Securities Programme.
Capitalised terms used herein but not otherwise defined will have the meanings given to them in the terms
and conditions of the ETC Securities (the “Conditions”).
The Issuer hereby gives notice that in exercise of its discretion under Condition 18, it has decided to
suspend the issuance of further Securities with effect from 11 January 2016. Deutsche Bank AG will
continue to act as Authorised Participant for the Series but, in doing so, will only provide “bid pricing” at
which investors can sell ETC Securities to it. Such “bid pricing” will be on a substantially similar basis to
that presently provided by Deutsche Bank AG (but it should be noted that it is not obliged to provide such
pricing and may discontinue such provision at any time). The ETC Securities will continue to be listed on
the Official List of the UKLA and on the London Stock Exchange.
Notices to Securityholders are validly delivered to the Clearing System(s) for communication by the
Clearing System(s) to the Securityholders.


https://etc.deutscheam.com/GBR/ENG/D...5-a590f59f74e8

[motocat]

By the way. XRH0:LN is an ETC and not an ETF.

Have you ever tried to buy these shares since January 2016? As far as I know you can only sell shares to DB and they don't issue shares any more.


https://etc.deutscheam.com/GBR/ENG/D...5-a590f59f74e8

Thanks for the clarification -- I don't have much time to spend on these things -- did not even know what an ETC was, only about the easy buying /selling ETF's through my broker. Do you know of any Rhodium ETF's that did and do not have high buy -sell spreads? When I looked them up, the spread was 200/oz -- and when Rhodium was below 1000/oz -- that was just to much for me to accept (meaning over 25% gain just to break even). If I could have found one with 10% or less buy-sell spread, I would have bought.