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Thread: Auto industry bubble starting to deflate.....

  1. #21

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    stanford study says fossil-fueled cars will vanish in 8 years as ‘big oil’ collapses


    Seba predicts that in less than a decade, it will become very difficult for consumers to find petrol stations, spares or mechanics knowledgeable enough to fix combustion engines. His ultimate premise is that modern-day car dealerships will disappear by 2024 as the long-term price of oil falls to $25 USD a barrel. Those who cling to their outdated cars will probably have to pay to dispose of them in the future, says Seba. In the author’s own words, there will be a “mass stranding of existing vehicles.”



    http://inhabitat.com/stanford-study-...oil-collapses/

  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by Silver and Gold View Post
    stanford study says fossil-fueled cars will vanish in 8 years as ‘big oil’ collapses


    Seba predicts that in less than a decade, it will become very difficult for consumers to find petrol stations, spares or mechanics knowledgeable enough to fix combustion engines. His ultimate premise is that modern-day car dealerships will disappear by 2024 as the long-term price of oil falls to $25 USD a barrel. Those who cling to their outdated cars will probably have to pay to dispose of them in the future, says Seba. In the author’s own words, there will be a “mass stranding of existing vehicles.”

    http://inhabitat.com/stanford-study-...oil-collapses/
    Why will cars with fixed combustion engines go away as oil gets cheaper? And electricity is not exactly free. This make no sense. And regarding "stranding" of existing vehicles, I've found the price of used cars today to be high enough, I'm just going to get new. Myself -- I'm actually now rather MORE inclined to stick with traditional engines -- had a Tesla Model S to drive and it just got boring and and grew tired of the look, not to mention the hassle taking on longer trips. As an enthusiasts, I also like using a clutch. I can also do all the communication one can do while driving as if I was a passenger, so self driving won't help. And I'll get there nearly twice as fast. For the less skilled and children -- sure, self driving will help. I'll be sure to be first in line to get one to relieve myself from acting as family chauffeur.

    I think the professor is a bit out of touch with the real world. Do note he is an "economics" professor. I've found "economist" to be perhaps the worst predictors of future events of all. Bunch of nerds stuck on imaginary digits most can't even define. Better to ask a plumber. For the fossil fueled cars to "collapse", oil can't be getting cheaper, while electricity gets more expensive. I'll be betting against this prediction -- even though I did say to bet with TSLA. It's a complex world -- in playing your cards -- don't get stuck on one way of thinking (often wishful) -- as Mr. Serba and his Stanford geek squad seems to have.

    However -- if true cost of oils does go up (not down to $25 a barrel as in report) -- yes, choice for combustion engines can decline greatly. I would think an economics professor would get this ...not to mention length of time transitions take -- 10 years and gas stations gone and no more knowledgeable mechanics -- what a ivory tower dope.
    Last edited by motocat; 06-14-2017 at 12:39 PM.
    “Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring class of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money.”Daniel Webster (1782-1852)

  3. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by Silver and Gold View Post
    stanford study says fossil-fueled cars will vanish in 8 years as ‘big oil’ collapses


    Seba predicts that in less than a decade, it will become very difficult for consumers to find petrol stations, spares or mechanics knowledgeable enough to fix combustion engines. His ultimate premise is that modern-day car dealerships will disappear by 2024 as the long-term price of oil falls to $25 USD a barrel. Those who cling to their outdated cars will probably have to pay to dispose of them in the future, says Seba. In the author’s own words, there will be a “mass stranding of existing vehicles.”



    http://inhabitat.com/stanford-study-...oil-collapses/
    This professor lives in lala land. the VAST Majority of the worlds population that uses cars, and almost 100% of agricultural farming and trucking industry, not to mention heavy equipment, industry (like huge mining vehicles, rail transport, shipping, etc), all use gasoline or diesel as a Necessity, as the concentration of caloric power in a full tank of fuel is orders of magnitude more than any possible lithium power storage. Somebody did a comparison (I will try to find the link) of how many tesla type battery packs a standard 100 car freight train would need in order to get that train from Chicago to LA and it was something like needing an extra 40 freight cars of batteries...... which of course makes the whole cost of transport uneconomical. Or how about a harvesting combine, with a 800 hp CAT diesel powering it, with 300 gallon tanks of fuel, to get it through the days work..... need to tow along another grain harvester frame and wheels stacked with batteries, just to try to get things done. Just where does he think that 30,000hp diesel sucking 25 gallons a minute of fuel is going to go if it has to become an electric battery VLCC tanker...... oh, yeah, every couple of hundred miles there will be these vast oceanic charging stations all along global shipping routes. And how about our aviation industry.... Like to see that A380 now no longer able to even taxi down the runway, as the batteries needed to power big turbofans now weigh more than the aircraft.

    I know my cattle trucks fuel usage, and distance, often having to drive 600 miles or more through no mans land over to ND or Wyoming, and they have to keep to schedules. Yeah, like they will pull over every couple of hours in the middle of 500 miles of nothing but grassland and rattlesnakes at these imaginary commercial charging stations, just to have to wait another couple of hours to charge their heavy battery packs, which whey will have to tow along another trailer.... get real.

    That professor is full of Cr*p if he thinks that my drivers will pull over every couple of hours for a 2 hour chargeup... doubling their transit times, and cost.

    What an academic clueless dope. That piece is nothing more than a lying political propaganda spew, to try to comfort all those greenies who have already bought into the Zero fossil fuel religion, like California just stated... 100% renewable electricity in the next decade for them.... yeah right... see how long that lasts when their household monthly electric bills become $1,000+ per month... and revolt.
    Last edited by shades; 06-14-2017 at 02:15 PM.

  4. #24

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    [QUOTE=Silver and Gold;2594357]stanford study says fossil-fueled cars will vanish in 8 years as ‘big oil’ collapses


    Seba predicts that in less than a decade, it will become very difficult for consumers to find petrol stations, spares or mechanics knowledgeable enough to fix combustion engines. His ultimate premise is that modern-day car dealerships will disappear by 2024 as the long-term price of oil falls to $25 USD a barrel. [I]Those who cling to their outdated cars will probably have to pay to dispose of them in the future, says Seba. In the author’s own words, there will be a “mass stranding of existing vehicles.”[/I]



    That's great news! If anyone has a '67 Vette or '68 Stang they are looking to dispose of due to that obsolete combustion engine; I'll be more than happy to take it off your hands! And I'll do it for free! ;^]

  5. #25

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    for a professor who is supposed to be in economics, he sure is ignorant of the dynamics of people's actions in the free market. If going electric means your lifestyle will degrade, then the majority of people will stay with gas. California is doing the Big Experiment and dictating to the masses that their lives are about to get a whole lot more destitute as their standard of affordable purchasing power shrinks in proportion to the rising electric costs. They have already lost a huge percentage of companies to other states friendly to business.

  6. #26

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    Quote Originally Posted by shades View Post
    for a professor who is supposed to be in economics, he sure is ignorant of the dynamics of people's actions in the free market. If going electric means your lifestyle will degrade, then the majority of people will stay with gas. California is doing the Big Experiment and dictating to the masses that their lives are about to get a whole lot more destitute as their standard of affordable purchasing power shrinks in proportion to the rising electric costs. They have already lost a huge percentage of companies to other states friendly to business.
    Don't know why -- but businesses sure seem to like the Bay Area. To many still coming in, to much work, real estate is crazy. I wish what you said on CA business was true -- I just don't see it and I'm living in the middle of it all....It's still the gold rush here -- but many here love combustion engines -- the whole greenie thing is more of an Oregon thing, people here love fast gas guzzling cars. Biggest problem here hi housing cost -- maybe good for the elderly who already own, bad for new workers. All the politicians here should be run out of town for letting this get so out of hand. With regulations -- the most difficult to deal with are based on federal codes.
    “Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring class of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money.”Daniel Webster (1782-1852)

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Silver and Gold View Post
    stanford study says fossil-fueled cars will vanish in 8 years as ‘big oil’ collapses


    Seba predicts that in less than a decade, it will become very difficult for consumers to find petrol stations, spares or mechanics knowledgeable enough to fix combustion engines. His ultimate premise is that modern-day car dealerships will disappear by 2024 as the long-term price of oil falls to $25 USD a barrel. Those who cling to their outdated cars will probably have to pay to dispose of them in the future, says Seba. In the author’s own words, there will be a “mass stranding of existing vehicles.”



    http://inhabitat.com/stanford-study-...oil-collapses/
    No way is that happening in 8 years, 80 years maybe.

    It will be at least 10 years after the large auto makers stop selling liquid fueled cars (if they ever do) before petrol/gas stations disappear
    If I knew the answers I wouldn't be here

  8. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by motocat View Post
    Don't know why -- but businesses sure seem to like the Bay Area. To many still coming in, to much work, real estate is crazy. I wish what you said on CA business was true -- I just don't see it and I'm living in the middle of it all....It's still the gold rush here -- but many here love combustion engines -- the whole greenie thing is more of an Oregon thing, people here love fast gas guzzling cars. Biggest problem here hi housing cost -- maybe good for the elderly who already own, bad for new workers. All the politicians here should be run out of town for letting this get so out of hand. With regulations -- the most difficult to deal with are based on federal codes.
    It's all about businesses that operate in the ghost world of electronic communications, versus real world manufacturing/physical products companies. A very well written piece, showing methodology of conclusion. http://www.pasadenastarnews.com/busi...have-an-answer

    When your business is entirely in the electronic ghost world, there is nothing to worry about from Californias onerous environmental and worker protection/entitlement schemes. If you make custom motorcycle, and other solid real world products, like my brother in law in Big Bear, CA, then I hear first hand how he has to put up with OSHA and CAL Works gestapo tactics, basically extorting him to work at a loss, just to cover baloney regulations that make his bikes un competitive with other guys across the border in Nevada... almost identical products, and because of CA regulations... even fining him 6 grand for the "used" grease lube (AKA "dangerous environmental toxin") that he was "improperly storing" (literally a boxful of old shop towels that were gunky with assembly grease he wiped off his hands) on a surprise gestapo inspection of his shop. They tried to tell him that it could get into local streams and kill fish........ There are NO streams within 20 miles of him, unless you count the mythical desert dry wash mudskips..... He fought it, but lost, due to the states insane reasoning that there might be a 100 year event flood that might wash the whole town of Big Bear into the lake, and the dam could fail, sending those 30 rags down the Santa Ana dry wash river..... which is concreted over all the way through LA into the ocean anyway.

    THat is why businesses that actually have a real physical presence of products in CA are leaving. Computer program masturbation companies are safe for now...... until the 100% green energy mandate hits...... then, even those Bay area tech and info manipulation companies will start leaving to places where at least the electricity costs of their server farms don't bankrupt them.

  9. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by shades View Post
    It's all about businesses that operate in the ghost world of electronic communications, versus real world manufacturing/physical products companies. A very well written piece, showing methodology of conclusion. http://www.pasadenastarnews.com/busi...have-an-answer

    When your business is entirely in the electronic ghost world, there is nothing to worry about from Californias onerous environmental and worker protection/entitlement schemes. If you make custom motorcycle, and other solid real world products, like my brother in law in Big Bear, CA, then I hear first hand how he has to put up with OSHA and CAL Works gestapo tactics, basically extorting him to work at a loss, just to cover baloney regulations that make his bikes un competitive with other guys across the border in Nevada... almost identical products, and because of CA regulations... even fining him 6 grand for the "used" grease lube (AKA "dangerous environmental toxin") that he was "improperly storing" (literally a boxful of old shop towels that were gunky with assembly grease he wiped off his hands) on a surprise gestapo inspection of his shop. They tried to tell him that it could get into local streams and kill fish........ There are NO streams within 20 miles of him, unless you count the mythical desert dry wash mudskips..... He fought it, but lost, due to the states insane reasoning that there might be a 100 year event flood that might wash the whole town of Big Bear into the lake, and the dam could fail, sending those 30 rags down the Santa Ana dry wash river..... which is concreted over all the way through LA into the ocean anyway.

    THat is why businesses that actually have a real physical presence of products in CA are leaving. Computer program masturbation companies are safe for now...... until the 100% green energy mandate hits...... then, even those Bay area tech and info manipulation companies will start leaving to places where at least the electricity costs of their server farms don't bankrupt them.
    I'm in the business of getting building permits for small businesses -- including those who manufacture large refrigeration units, so I'm with you on all the crazy regulations that we need to deal with in CA (and the nation for that matter). I'll tell you it cost 10,000 to change a light bulb if you do it the "right" way. Bottom line is -- I've found doing things legally per code and local ordinance (often conflicting) to actually be impossible for many if not all businesses -- as such, it becomes about knowing the individual inspectors/plan checkers in local city governments, knowing how to be discreet, what you really need to do and what could slide. Why I'm getting more customers then I can handle. Given that following all the rules is impossible, and does not help anything -- when it comes to government, for small businesses, it's usually more about avoidance then compliance.

    Due to geology, California is a nice place to live, so I'm thinking people will want to live and work here regardless of bad government. And for myself, at least I can filter through traffic here on a bike legally, and ride year round unlike so many other states. That makes up for a lot. With your brother in law -- he should figure out a way to be more discreet -- do business with those he trusts only -- maybe even consider going all cash -- or better yet, encourage use of silver and gold bullion. Contrary to popular knowledge, California also has a very strong Liberty movement, and the "progressives" are often from out of state -- time to fight back, not give up this beautiful ship.
    “Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring class of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money.”Daniel Webster (1782-1852)

  10. #30

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    GM lowers outlook for US 2017 new vehicle sales

    General Motors now expects U.S. new vehicle sales in 2017 will be in the "low 17 million" unit range.
    Major automakers have reported sales declines for the past three months.


    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/26/gm-lo...cle-sales.html

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