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Thread: Start of the bull market in Gold and Silver

  1. #1

    Default Start of the bull market in Gold and Silver

    Keep in mind, what I'm about to write, I write knowing full well, paper is paper, electronic trading platforms are vapor and the only real silver and gold, are physical silver and gold. I have mentioned often enough, I collect (you call it stacking) but I also rely on paper trading to achieve and support a certain lifestyle, as well as support my psychological needs. That said, (excuses-excuses), we all like to make money.
    Those of us who are playing / trading mining stocks and paper metals watch everything. Lately, although long term fundamentals haven't changed, maybe gotten more ominous, fundamentals have been playing tricks. For example, this past week's announcement by several Fed.members that they were leaning to raising I rates .25 in June, somehow was viewed by the markets that it's bad for Gold and Silver, so they sunk along with a deeper dive by the miners.
    Well--I think it's safe to say, these fundamentals have NOTHING to do with what happened to Gold and Silver!
    I say this knowing the initial start of the bull market in Gold and Silver was sparked when the first I rate change was whispered months ago.
    Why should THIS I rate rise of .25 cause the opposite effect that the initial I rate rise had?
    It shouldn't.
    There is more to this metals market than meets the eye.
    Charts DO tell a story, but a slightly different story to all who try to construct them.
    I have to run, and hope to continue this as a discussion later.

  2. #2

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    Charts, fundamentals, central banks, the Fed and technical analysis mean nothing in pricing of precious metals.

    Precious metal pricing is sentiment driven only. There is a slight potential that silver has not yet bottomed as the stock market potentially goes into a maniac phase to 2500 SPY.

    The driver for silver right now is FOMO - Fear Of Missing Out. If this current break upward in GDX continues into July and gets to probably $25. then there will be a FOMO panic that drives GDX to over $40. and silver rides along into the $30.+.

    The other sentiment possibility is those who started to suffer from FOMO in the past few weeks get scared out of their positions at a loss and silver and the GDX fall to new lows into the lower volumes of summer.

    I personally bought some physical silver and a 400 share position in GDX today.

    This is only my personal opinion and not intended as investing advice......
    Last edited by Redrum; 05-25-2016 at 10:51 PM.

  3. #3

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    Thousands of charting services exist because people want to believe there is a fail safe way to determine when to buy and when to sell a stock.
    And, so long as people are willing to pay, there will always be an unlimited number of choices.
    No, I am not recommending ANYONE. Truth be told, the internet has made many available, many services are free and even more are in the form of weekly blogs, expressing an analyst's opinion. I say "analyst" but they are often no more than a "hobbiest", or an unemployed wannabe journalist, or someone who just enjoys writing.
    The internet has provided me with a way to gather information,and it's up to me to determine how to separate fact from fiction,and importantly, allows me to figure out technical analysis and behavioral analysis.
    Behavioral analysis and sentiment are every bit as critical in determining market direction as technical and fundamental analysis.
    I also learned not to confuse market sentiment with my own sentiment and emotion.
    And, I also learned there is NOT one discipline that works all the time. For example,charting is a terrific tool, but it does NOT work all the time.It changes, and you need to recognize when the chart is working.
    Fundamentals work, but not all the time. Interpreting what fundamentals mean and what technical analysis to apply and when, can be murky.
    As a community, I have learned a lot here in a very short time and piggy backed it on to what little I already know.
    There are some very intelligent folks here, many with a wealth of experience.
    So, I think (as many here believe) we are in the early stages of what could be a great bull market for Silver and Gold, and their related sources.
    And I think we are at or near the bottom with (possibly) these next few weeks being a major turning point.
    Several charts seem to indicate $1200 -$1220ish for gold and $16.20-16.50 ish for silver as major bottoms (for now).
    And my read of market sentiment supports that.
    I also am VERY into the mining sector,so HUI and some mining etfs are not only investments, but they are a wealth of data.
    To be continued.
    PS:My posting occurred before reading Redrum's post and I agree with him.
    ANY thoughts, supporting materials,charts are welcome.
    Let's make money.
    Last edited by CMegladon; 05-25-2016 at 09:43 PM.

  4. #4

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    BTW-in another thread this morning,I posted my buys today.
    Early I bought NUGT around 9:45 am and sold around 1:15.
    Also reversed 50% of my temporary cash position this AM and bought EXP, DRD, MUX, GG. Mutual fund INIVX and ETF GDX.

  5. #5
    Join Date
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Redrum View Post
    Charts, fundamentals, central banks, the Fed and technical analysis mean nothing in pricing of precious metals.

    Precious metal pricing is sentiment driven only.

    There is a community of charting symbols and I have unlocked them all. Us people who know this language will make lots of money!! I read Gold and Silver charts like X-rays.

  6. #6

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    Yes, agreed. Anybody that knows how to read the commitment of traders report would know that there has been a PROFOUND shift this year.

    I bought more AGQ at 36.31 yesterday, caught the low.

    Also with regard to interest rates, long term interest rates signal inflation. I'm doing a practice bachelor's thesis on gold at the moment and I've been reading academic papers on the relation between gold and interest rates. I've read theories that gold and long term interest rates have a positive correlation - in other words, as long term interest rates increase, gold increases. This happens because long term interest rates are actually a gauge of inflation expectations, so if they increase, the market is expecting more inflation.

    So I really don't get this interest rate fear. Higher long term interest rates = higher inflation expectations = bullish.
    Last edited by Silver_Dragon; 05-26-2016 at 06:27 AM.
    Religion is for people who're afraid of going to hell. Spirituality is for those who've already been there.

    Hail Ishtar.

  7. #7
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    Silver dragon there is an even bigger drop coming during or after summer. As soon as Gold hit's $1280.

    We're talking $1150 Gold and $15 Silver.

  8. #8

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    Just a comment on the comment presented by Redrum that "Precious metal pricing is sentiment driven only".
    IMHO, as I already expressed, sentiment IS a part of the driving force.
    I believe sentiment plays a role in the "genesis" of any move, but more importantly, in the momentum of any move.
    Fundamental Macro Economics play a huge role.
    Simply put, ask the question, "Is it true, Central Banks either maintain OR accumulate physical gold"?
    There is very little doubt the following Central Banks have Gold:
    1-United States
    2-China
    3-Japan
    4-France
    5-Russia
    6-Switzerland
    7-Netherlands
    8-India
    9-Germany
    10-Italy
    Not in any particular order, but these are the top 10.
    Importantly, their REASON for holding gold and increasing their holdings are NOT sentiment driven
    There are fundamental reasons Central Banks hold the metal, and nothing about it is sentimental.
    Point of particular interest; Italy is in the top 5, and the former Head of their Central Bank is Mario Draghi,who as we know, is the head of the ECB.
    Now I don't want to mix or confuse 2 subjects; Reasons for holding Gold VS the reason for price fluctuations in Gold.However, they ARE related.
    Furthermore, if you ask ANY collector or stacker, although they are emotional about their ultimate reasons for stacking, experienced stackers are disciplined in their approach to accumulating.Sentiment plays little role in buying one month over another.
    My point is, investing in the metals arena is VERY complex.And, charts, fundamentals, discipline and sentiment all play a role in deciding how to invest in different parts of that arena and when to use the tools and how to apply them.
    Last edited by CMegladon; 05-26-2016 at 01:05 PM.

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by Got Goldies View Post
    Silver dragon there is an even bigger drop coming during or after summer. As soon as Gold hit's $1280.

    We're talking $1150 Gold and $15 Silver.
    Yeah, agree and I said in my thread that a drop to $15.xx is possible, but I don't see it going below 14.66. I might get out of my current AGQ as gold nears $1300 again, depending on the CoT report.
    Religion is for people who're afraid of going to hell. Spirituality is for those who've already been there.

    Hail Ishtar.

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by Got Goldies View Post
    Silver dragon there is an even bigger drop coming during or after summer. As soon as Gold hit's $1280.

    We're talking $1150 Gold and $15 Silver.
    Yes, Virginia. There are Summer Doldrums.
    Legal Disclaimer: I am not a doctor, nor do I play one on TV.

    "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
    A variant of this has also been attributed to physicist Niels Bohr, and others.

    "Tis against some menís principle to pay interest, and seems against othersí interest to pay the principal." -- Benjamin Franklin

    The School of Hard Knocks is where you get the lesson after you fail the test.

    Book title: "The Best Way to Rob a Bank Is to Own One"

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