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Thread: Gold Silver Ratio Discussion Group

  1. #81

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    The need for a crystal ball is more necessary at present than it has been for a few years, IMHO. The question in the back of everyone's minds is which way is the price of PM heading. We all know that POG & POS is never static and that there's been a good run up over the past year, but is it over or just beginning? I've been asking myself that same question for the last 5 months while PM seemed to have been on a plateau. A month or so ago there seems to have been the indication that the pause is over, but summer months are normally bad for PM. However, last year this wasn't true. Will this year be a repeat? Based upon the demand for Ag and the upcoming witching hour at the end of June for the Basel III edict I'm thinking the trend is up. I think the prices seen in the retail market with the huge premiums is confirming my thinking. But I sure don't own a crystal ball. However, I also have zero faith in fiat currency since inflation is starting. There's a shortage of many commodities and I think with the idiots in charge of gov't spending just getting warmed up that we ain't seen nothin' yet. Hang on for a very bumpy ride. The word on the street this morning was that the Trump tax breaks for the middle and lower classes has to go away to pay for the massive spending. Time to load up on anti-inflation, anti-wealth pills. (rounds, bars and junk PM) I still firmly believe that with the gov't trying to get access to you banking accounts that a wealth tax is just around the corner too.
    Do your own due diligence

    I stand united with my friends & family in Canada who seek freedom.

  2. #82

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    Silver is going to $50 eventually, only question is "when?"
    "Compulsory altruism is none too altruistic." - me

    "All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across." -- Julian Simon

  3. #83

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    Quote Originally Posted by windweaver77 View Post
    Silver is going to $50 eventually, only question is "when?"
    CS type contest ???
    1835 Andrew Jackson had US debt at ZERO $0
    175 YEARS later .......
    2008 Owebama started at $10 TRILLION, left 2016 at $20 TRILLION
    So from 2008 - 2021 (13 years) added $20 TRILLION

    https://youtu.be/1kuTG19Cu_Q

  4. #84

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    Quote Originally Posted by LongDonSilver View Post
    The need for a crystal ball is more necessary at present than it has been for a few years, IMHO. The question in the back of everyone's minds is which way is the price of PM heading. We all know that POG & POS is never static and that there's been a good run up over the past year, but is it over or just beginning? I've been asking myself that same question for the last 5 months while PM seemed to have been on a plateau. A month or so ago there seems to have been the indication that the pause is over, but summer months are normally bad for PM. However, last year this wasn't true. Will this year be a repeat? Based upon the demand for Ag and the upcoming witching hour at the end of June for the Basel III edict I'm thinking the trend is up. I think the prices seen in the retail market with the huge premiums is confirming my thinking. But I sure don't own a crystal ball. However, I also have zero faith in fiat currency since inflation is starting. There's a shortage of many commodities and I think with the idiots in charge of gov't spending just getting warmed up that we ain't seen nothin' yet. Hang on for a very bumpy ride. The word on the street this morning was that the Trump tax breaks for the middle and lower classes has to go away to pay for the massive spending. Time to load up on anti-inflation, anti-wealth pills. (rounds, bars and junk PM) I still firmly believe that with the gov't trying to get access to you banking accounts that a wealth tax is just around the corner too.
    good a m longdon. so what are your educated predictions, non crystal ball guesses? gold is already at its all time peak, silver is still 40% below its peak. if silver repeats it high of near $50 where do you suppose gold will be? i know this is a difficult question and its all speculative guessing. i would think gold should hit $3800 by November this year. just a hunch. jmho and i am no financial expert by far.

  5. #85

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    Quote Originally Posted by maxwellsilverhammer View Post
    good a m longdon. so what are your educated predictions, non crystal ball guesses? gold is already at its all time peak, silver is still 40% below its peak. if silver repeats it high of near $50 where do you suppose gold will be? i know this is a difficult question and its all speculative guessing. i would think gold should hit $3800 by November this year. just a hunch. jmho and i am no financial expert by far.
    IMO, gold will be at 2800-3000 by the end of 2022. Silver will be 60-70, and platinum will at 2400. So basically platinum and silver will outperform gold equally.
    Of course if there is a market crash, in the short term silver will fall a lot harder than gold so lets say gold falls to 1500, silver could be back at 18.

  6. #86

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    Quote Originally Posted by maxwellsilverhammer View Post
    good a m longdon. so what are your educated predictions, non crystal ball guesses? gold is already at its all time peak, silver is still 40% below its peak. if silver repeats it high of near $50 where do you suppose gold will be? i know this is a difficult question and its all speculative guessing. i would think gold should hit $3800 by November this year. just a hunch. jmho and i am no financial expert by far.
    I really don't know what my best guess would be. So many times in the past the POG has fooled me when it comes timing it. I believe that POG should be at least $2,500 by year end and could hit $5,000 at some point in the next few years. Your guess of $3,800 by November could very well happen if all the pieces fall in line, but I've expected POG to go up more than once only to see it crash. Too much market manipulation going on to believe that real market conditions are in control. Silver is even harder to guess since I'm really confused with the premiums and lack of availability going on. I'm confused if there's a real silver shortage or a shortage caused by mints slowing production and banks playing with paper silver driving physical silver to crazy levels. I think silver could hit $50 this year if the shortage is real. However, I'm not buying silver at anything but the lowest premium I can find when I think the market is ready to move and it is moving nicely at a slow increase now. I buy and hold and so don't want to get on the wrong side of price movements and would rather dollar cost average if the POS continues at grow with a show steady increase in price. But a black swan could blow my ideas out of the water and put both metals at new all time highs in weeks, if not days. Since black swans can't be seen by definition I don't see a spike happening this summer. Maybe a possible Black Swan could happen in the fall if the Biden administration continues to think money grows on trees. I really think a major bank failure could happen in 2022, but don't know which one.
    Do your own due diligence

    I stand united with my friends & family in Canada who seek freedom.

  7. #87

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    Quote Originally Posted by LongDonSilver View Post
    The need for a crystal ball is more necessary at present than it has been for a few years, IMHO. The question in the back of everyone's minds is which way is the price of PM heading. We all know that POG & POS is never static and that there's been a good run up over the past year, but is it over or just beginning? I've been asking myself that same question for the last 5 months while PM seemed to have been on a plateau. A month or so ago there seems to have been the indication that the pause is over, but summer months are normally bad for PM. However, last year this wasn't true. Will this year be a repeat? Based upon the demand for Ag and the upcoming witching hour at the end of June for the Basel III edict I'm thinking the trend is up. I think the prices seen in the retail market with the huge premiums is confirming my thinking. But I sure don't own a crystal ball. However, I also have zero faith in fiat currency since inflation is starting. There's a shortage of many commodities and I think with the idiots in charge of gov't spending just getting warmed up that we ain't seen nothin' yet. Hang on for a very bumpy ride. The word on the street this morning was that the Trump tax breaks for the middle and lower classes has to go away to pay for the massive spending. Time to load up on anti-inflation, anti-wealth pills. (rounds, bars and junk PM) I still firmly believe that with the gov't trying to get access to you banking accounts that a wealth tax is just around the corner too.
    Thank you for this post. It puts together several worthy considerations in one place & is good food for thought. Back when silver was at $14/ozt, I had good confidence that it would rise. Now, I don't know which way it will go. At $14, I didn't see much room for downside. Now I see room for it to move in either direction.

    I too am hopeful that silver will see it's previous high of $50 again, but I am not confident that it will happen unless there is a specific event to push that move. The Hunt Brothers run up was a one time manipulation event. The other run up was based on genuine economic panic, that I would consider to be on par with the year of covid panic we just saw. Will that sort of panic be sown again? I don't know.

    At this time, I see a further rise as likely, but not confidence inspiring. I see $50 as possible, but I can't quite call it probable. Silver beyond $50 is also possible, but so is silver below $20. The money printing has me thinking that all commodities, including metals, should rise, but what should happen & what does happen are sometimes different, due to outside influences. We see a lot of unusual influences these days.

    One item you listed may not provide the effect you are expecting. That is Basel III, According to what I have read, its implementation has been pushed off for a few years. It was discussed here - https://gold-forum.kitco.com/showthr...asel-III/page3 It seems to me that the provisions of Basel III are not in the best interests of certain bankers who carry a lot of clout. Therefore, I see the possibility that it may continue to be pushed back further and further as time goes by. That being said, this is all just information that I read on the Internet, so....

  8. #88

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    Quote Originally Posted by High Chaparral View Post
    CS type contest ???
    Good Idea !!!
    "Compulsory altruism is none too altruistic." - me

    "All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across." -- Julian Simon

  9. #89

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SilverPalm View Post
    Thank you for this post. It puts together several worthy considerations in one place & is good food for thought. Back when silver was at $14/ozt, I had good confidence that it would rise. Now, I don't know which way it will go. At $14, I didn't see much room for downside. Now I see room for it to move in either direction.

    I too am hopeful that silver will see it's previous high of $50 again, but I am not confident that it will happen unless there is a specific event to push that move. The Hunt Brothers run up was a one time manipulation event. The other run up was based on genuine economic panic, that I would consider to be on par with the year of covid panic we just saw. Will that sort of panic be sown again? I don't know.

    At this time, I see a further rise as likely, but not confidence inspiring. I see $50 as possible, but I can't quite call it probable. Silver beyond $50 is also possible, but so is silver below $20. The money printing has me thinking that all commodities, including metals, should rise, but what should happen & what does happen are sometimes different, due to outside influences. We see a lot of unusual influences these days.

    One item you listed may not provide the effect you are expecting. That is Basel III, According to what I have read, its implementation has been pushed off for a few years. It was discussed here - https://gold-forum.kitco.com/showthr...asel-III/page3 It seems to me that the provisions of Basel III are not in the best interests of certain bankers who carry a lot of clout. Therefore, I see the possibility that it may continue to be pushed back further and further as time goes by. That being said, this is all just information that I read on the Internet, so....
    Basel III is a can that's been kicked down the road several times. It's more or less like a beauty queen stating that she's for world peace. The thing that has me guessing as to the rise in PM prices the most is government intervention behind the scenes working in conjunction with big banks. There's rumors that the US government is trying to hold the price of gold static and if true then are other governments also involved. Lets face it PM prices are dirt cheap when compared to the amount of paper fiat being floated. But that same paper fiat is being used to buy/sell paper PM resulting in a circle jerk where nothing is real except when you try to get off the merry go round and buy physical and either can't find any or the prices are nowhere near what the spot is posted at. My latest purchase of generic rounds was at $31.77/oz for silver on a day when Ag spot was under $28 and it seemed like a "good deal" when compared to AGE and other government issues. Buying Au doesn't seem to be quite as bad compared to spot, but if gold is going to be spoofed again and again and false transfers of paper gold into ATF's is being used as part of the spoof then you can't even trust your lying eyes. Three card Monty scams have nothing over TPTB when it comes to pulling tricks. My best guess as to where to put most of my fiat has been into miners since March of this year. As long as PM prices remain near all time highs there's got to be some huge profits flowing out of miners. Plus if PM does take off then the price of anything with gold or silver in the company's name should blast off too. But these are crazy times.
    Do your own due diligence

    I stand united with my friends & family in Canada who seek freedom.

  10. #90

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    6/2/21 8:00ish in the evening, east coast time,

    Gold $1,908 / Silver $28.2 = almost 68 spot GSR
    AGE $2,033 / ASE $37.5 = just over 54 retail Eagle GSR

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