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Thread: Gold Silver Ratio Discussion Group

  1. #191

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    My next silver to gold sell point will be at <76:1. All from silver obtained at >90:1. Of course, it is with paper. Premiums on silver bullion makes trading physical unreasonable. If physical, it would need to be industrial with a refiner, like grain - however the tax implications would be horrendous -- and they report all transactions.
    “Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring class of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money.”Daniel Webster (1782-1852)

  2. #192

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    Some good points regarding what moves the GSR can be found here - https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2...ver-ratio.html
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  3. #193

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    Interesting article because we can see what has happened since it was written. So the author's predictions for triple digit silver have not happened yet ( what a surprise). But it is worth noting the trends he points out, the red circles for GSR spikes preceding silver price surges seems to hold water. The biggest circle however for the covid lockdown spike is an anomaly and as we can see there was a price spike in silver, but most likely due to the GSR already in an elevated range.
    From the author : "it makes sense for silver prices to fall much more than gold prices during times of perceived economic prosperity and safety."
    True we are in or bordering a recession but mining has not slowed but has in fact achieved another record year. Supply is plentiful, premiums are outrageous.

  4. #194

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    Quote Originally Posted by and4rik View Post
    ...
    From the author : "it makes sense for silver prices to fall much more than gold prices during times of perceived economic prosperity and safety."
    True we are in or bordering a recession but mining has not slowed but has in fact achieved another record year. Supply is plentiful, premiums are outrageous.
    That was the assertion that I found most interesting. He Observes that in boom times, silver gets heavily produced as a byproduct while demand is not stimulated at the same rate. That sounds right to me. That is a useful consideration in planning my buy cycle timing.

    At this time, we are seeing the opposite. Liquidity is being removed from the system. Industry appears to be slowing. Silver stocks are said to be down. The US Mint is reported to be short on planchettes. Silver spot has risen roughly 15% in the last month. The tempest may be moving into a space that is much larger than a tea cup.
    Last edited by SilverPalm; 12-14-2022 at 09:57 PM.
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  5. #195

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    Liquidity is being removed from the system.
    I assume you are referring to stocks. It is an important realization that gold especially and silver currently just sit there, meaning there is no dividend, no interest.

  6. #196

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    Quote Originally Posted by and4rik View Post
    I assume you are referring to stocks. It is an important realization that gold especially and silver currently just sit there, meaning there is no dividend, no interest.
    True, the metals do not pay interest. Sometimes it appears as if they do because of the declining value of the fiat by which they are judged, but when you look at their trading value over time against other commodities, they tend to be fairly stable over long time spans. How many fine suits did an ounce of gold buy 400 years ago? 100years ago? Today? The change is usually just noise in the equation. It is small.

    In inflationary times, gold is a good investment compared to the currency of the day. In deflationary times, the story changes.

    That aside, I was not referring to stocks. I was observing a way to predict the noise in the equation for the purpose of strategic arbitrage. While the values of the metals remain stable over long time spans, the noise in the equation does occasionally allow an opportunity for profitable trade in short time frames. Recognizing those opportunities is an advantage worth chasing. Markets do ebb & flow.
    Last edited by SilverPalm; 12-14-2022 at 11:24 PM.
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  7. #197

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    Recognizing those opportunities is an advantage worth chasing.
    A good deal if you can find it. I am assuming you are and average stacker just like the rest of us and not a major player making market moving decisions. No coin shows around here for a while, wait and see mode for me.

  8. #198

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    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-or-silver
    To buy silver? Or to buy gold? A discussion of my two favorite monetary metals.
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  9. #199

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    Silver spot has been fairly flat since Christmas. Gold spot has seen about a 10% rise since Thanksgiving, but now may be leveling off (or not?). It seemed like a good time to run the numbers again.

    AG spot $23.7
    AU spot $1,928

    ASE $37
    Silver Maple $31

    AGE $2,068
    AGE 2001 forward $2,082
    Buff $2,147
    Krug $2,011
    Maple $2,018

    spot GSR 81
    Eagle GSR 56
    Maple GSR 65
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, January 2008
    This is no longer posted in the Fed Minutes of January 2008, but still quoted here - https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna22592939. The FOMC minutes still quote MR. Reifschneider. as stating the same thing.

  10. #200
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Posts
    5

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    Long time lurker here with a question I have struggled to ask but here I am...

    Ive been stacking AG for many years, both 90% and .999. Its to the point now where weight and space is becoming an issue. I would like to trade in some AG for AU and have a "dealer" with whom ive had buis with in the past who has said he will do trades.

    My question is...When is a good time to do so? Is there a certain GSR that people generally use as a guideline to to so? If so what are the GSRs you look for?

    Is there usually a premium or the likes involved with something like that and what should I expect if there is a premium for trade? Whats fair vs whats being ripped off kinda thing.

    Is trading one way easier than the other? ie...AG to AU easy and AG to AU harder? or vice versa?

    Thank you for your replies

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